Newsom’s support for 2028 presidential bid tanks, AOC and other contenders rise: poll
California Governor Gavin Newsom has dropped to third place among potential Democratic nominees for the presidency, according to a new survey. The latest Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll shows Newsom at 14% support, down from the lead he held earlier this year.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads the field with 17% support. Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails closely with 16%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is tied with Newsom at 14%, while Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) follows with 10%.
The poll was conducted Aug. 25 through Sept. 1. It surveyed 1,200 US registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. YouGov’s February poll had Newsom leading the field.
Newsom’s fall from the top
Newsom told CNN this week he won’t run if Harris runs, citing “mutually assured destruction.” The remark suggests he sees her entry as a fatal blow to his own chances.
The drop is notable because Newsom was the front-runner just months ago. His decision to step aside if Harris runs could push him further down the list as voters weigh their options. The survey places him at 14% support, well below where he stood when he led the field.
| Candidate | Current support |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 17% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 16% |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14% |
| Mark Kelly | 10% |
AOC’s quiet rise
Ocasio-Cortez has not ruled out a run. In an August interview, she said she “hasn’t ruled out the possibility” of running in 2028.
She told reporters she is focused on winning the 2026 midterms.
Kelly’s early push
Sen. Mark Kelly has been visiting early voting states and raising his profile ahead of the midterms. His 10% support puts him near the bottom of the top-tier candidates, but he remains a viable option for Democrats looking for a centrist candidate.
The field’s shape
The polling data shows a tight race at the top with three candidates within a few points of each other. Harris leads with 17%, followed by Buttigieg at 16% and Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 14%. Kelly rounds out the top five at 10%.
The field is wide open, and the midterms will likely reshape it again before the next election cycle.
What the numbers mean
The polling shows a fluid situation. Newsom’s retreat if Harris runs is a strategic move, not a concession.
“Mutually assured destruction”
Harris’s lead in the polls suggests she is weighing the numbers carefully. AOC’s hesitation keeps her options open, and her focus on the midterms is a smart political move. Her 14% support ties her with Newsom in the latest survey.
Buttigieg has been a steady presence in the conversation, and his strong showing suggests he is building a base of support. Kelly’s early visits to early voting states are designed to put him in the minds of voters ahead of the midterms.
None of this is final. The midterms will change the math, and the next round of polling will tell a different story.
The numbers are fluid, and the midterms are the real test.
Offices of Harris, Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, and Kelly were contacted but did not respond immediately.
Who is protecting what
The practical effect of Newsom’s statement that he won’t run if Harris runs is that he removes himself from the contest entirely. That leaves the field open for AOC and Kelly, who have both shown interest in running.
The paper suspects Newsom’s statement is a strategic move aimed at removing his own candidacy from the equation. Ask yourself why he would choose to step aside rather than fight for the nomination.
AOC’s hesitation keeps her options open. She has not ruled out a run and is focused on winning the 2026 midterms. The paper suspects this is a smart political move for someone who wants to keep her base engaged without committing to a presidential race yet.
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