Newsom’s Support for 2028 Presidential Bid Tanks as AOC and Other Contenders Rise

Newsom’s support for 2028 presidential bid tanks, AOC and other contenders rise: poll

California Governor Gavin Newsom has dropped to third place among potential Democratic nominees for the presidency, according to a new survey. The latest Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll shows Newsom at 14% support, down from the lead he held earlier this year.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads the field with 17% support. Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails closely with 16%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is tied with Newsom at 14%, while Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) follows with 10%.

The poll was conducted Aug. 25 through Sept. 1. It surveyed 1,200 US registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. YouGov’s February poll had Newsom leading the field.

Newsom’s fall from the top

Newsom told CNN this week he won’t run if Harris runs, citing “mutually assured destruction.” The remark suggests he sees her entry as a fatal blow to his own chances.

The drop is notable because Newsom was the front-runner just months ago. His decision to step aside if Harris runs could push him further down the list as voters weigh their options. The survey places him at 14% support, well below where he stood when he led the field.

AOC’s quiet rise

Ocasio-Cortez has not ruled out a run. In an August interview, she said she “hasn’t ruled out the possibility” of running in 2028.

She told reporters she is focused on winning the 2026 midterms.

Kelly’s early push

Sen. Mark Kelly has been visiting early voting states and raising his profile ahead of the midterms. His 10% support puts him near the bottom of the top-tier candidates, but he remains a viable option for Democrats looking for a centrist candidate.

The field’s shape

The polling data shows a tight race at the top with three candidates within a few points of each other. Harris leads with 17%, followed by Buttigieg at 16% and Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez tied at 14%. Kelly rounds out the top five at 10%.

The field is wide open, and the midterms will likely reshape it again before the next election cycle.

What the numbers mean

The polling shows a fluid situation. Newsom’s retreat if Harris runs is a strategic move, not a concession.

“Mutually assured destruction”

Harris’s lead in the polls suggests she is weighing the numbers carefully. AOC’s hesitation keeps her options open, and her focus on the midterms is a smart political move. Her 14% support ties her with Newsom in the latest survey.

Buttigieg has been a steady presence in the conversation, and his strong showing suggests he is building a base of support. Kelly’s early visits to early voting states are designed to put him in the minds of voters ahead of the midterms.

None of this is final. The midterms will change the math, and the next round of polling will tell a different story.

The numbers are fluid, and the midterms are the real test.

Offices of Harris, Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, and Kelly were contacted but did not respond immediately.

Where the paper stands

The paper backs the candidates who best align with individual freedom, small business, and a skepticism of concentrated power, and is against treating the nomination contest as a horse race between two machines gathering power. The paper has no party allegiance and judges each candidate issue by issue against its north star.

This poll shows a fluid field, with AOC rising quietly to tie Newsom at 14% support while Harris leads at 17% and Buttigieg trails closely at 16%. The paper watches how each candidate handles the midterms, which will reshape the field again before the next election cycle.

The paper wants to see candidates who champion small business and resist concentrations of power, whether in government or in business. The midterms are the real test, and the next round of polling will tell a different story.

2028 election · AOC · Democratic primary · polling · presidential race