Manchester City and Arsenal are the only sides with 12 points from four matches. They lead third-placed Hull City by four points and the rest by five. That is why some argue the Premier League title has become a two-team contest.
Is it too early?
Key Facts Box
- Arsenal and Manchester City both 12 points, 4 wins each
- Lead Hull City by 4 points, rest by 5
- Brighton + Chelsea scored 23 goals between them (13 + 10)
- Arsenal and City both in top 11 for shots, top 6 for touches in penalty area
- Arsenal conceded 1 goal, City 2
- Arsenal 9-game league winning run, last lost 19 April
- City beat United 1-0 on Sunday, Erling Haaland the goal
Early Leads at a Glance
| Team | Points | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 12 | 4 |
| Manchester City | 12 | 4 |
| Hull City | 8 | — |
| Chelsea | 7 | — |
| Liverpool | 6 | — |
| Manchester United | 4 | — |
| Spurs | 3 | — |
Arsenal are the defending champions and started the season with a 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield. They have followed that with wins over Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland, plus Napoli in the Champions League. Including last season, they are on a nine-game winning run in the league and last lost in 90 minutes to City on 19 April.
Manchester City make up the other side of the pairing. Guardiola departed after six titles in 10 years, and Enzo Maresca was appointed as his successor. Under Maresca’s guidance, City have won all four of their league matches so far, following their defeat in Cardiff against the Gunners. Their recent victories include triumphs over Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Coventry, and Porto in the Champions League, before they secured a 1-0 win at Manchester United on Sunday, with Erling Haaland netting the only goal.
What the Stats Show
The actual figures reveal a different picture. Brighton and Chelsea have combined for more goals than Arsenal and City have managed to score together, with Brighton scoring 13 and Chelsea scoring 10. As for shots, Arsenal sit 10th and City come in at 11th, while touches inside the opposing penalty area place them sixth and fifth respectively.
Both teams have kept their clean sheets intact for long stretches this season. Arsenal have allowed a single goal, while City have conceded two. Those numbers place both clubs among the best defensive records in the league. Yet scoring fewer than opponents who sit lower in the table suggests the lead is not built on pure dominance.
The Rest of the Field
Chelsea have suffered some poor early performances despite a decent start to the season. They sit fifth in the league, having lost just once, yet they have let in nine goals, which is the fourth worst defensive record in the division. In each of their opening four matches, they have shipped two or more goals, something that has not happened since 2015-16.
Liverpool are seventh, unbeaten after four games but three of those are draws. It is just the third time in 63 seasons they have failed to win either of their first two home league games. United are 13th with four points, equaling their worst start since 1992-93. Spurs sit 17th, the first time in their history they have failed to score in their first four league games.
What History Tells Us
Eighty teams have won their first four league games before. Just 24 went on to win the title. In the Premier League era, nine of 28 sides who won four on the bounce at the start went on to lift it, most recently Manchester City in 2023-24.
Just six prior Premier League campaigns saw two or more sides win all of their opening four matches. Only two clubs have claimed the title while trailing by five or more points after four rounds: Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson, a total of five times, and Guardiola’s Manchester City in 2020-21.
There is no resolution to the title contest yet. Four matches played is simply too little time to decide which teams are still in contention and which have fallen behind.
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