The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will open their 2026 NFL seasons when the NFC West rivals meet in the Week 1 Australia matchup in Melbourne on Thursday. The game kicks off at 8:35 p.m. ET from Melbourne Cricket Ground, with Los Angeles listed as 3.5-point favorites and the over/under set at 48.5 total points.
The Rams and the Niners both ended up tied for second in the division last season, each finishing at 12-5. Los Angeles lost to the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks 31-27 in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco was also knocked out by the Seahawks, falling 41-6 in a divisional round contest. Since then, neither team has played a regular-season game, leaving this opener as a clean slate for two rosters that spent the offseason readying themselves for another shot at the rest of the division.
Rams and 49ers injury and lineup notes
This week, Aaron Donald will sit out for the Rams. He remains in the process of getting back into shape after coming out of a two-year retirement. With him missing from the lineup, the Los Angeles defensive line is left without one of its key pieces as the season gets underway.
Matthew Stafford is expected to throw for more than 235 yards and two touchdowns against San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is projected to throw for more than 220 yards and one touchdown. Los Angeles’, and both quarterbacks will be crucial to their teams’ fortunes in what promises to be a game with plenty of scoring.
What the SportsLine model says
SportsLine’s projection model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. The model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
It enters the 2026 season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
The model has run 10,000 simulations of this game and is projecting the total to go Over 48.5 combined points. In the regular season and postseason, the Rams and their opponents combined for 49 or more points in 12 of 20 games. Los Angeles averaged a league-best 30.5 points last year. San Francisco ranked 10th in scoring in 2025, with an average of 25.7 points.
The SportsLine model forecasts a combined total of 49 points from both sides. That number exceeds the posted line by half a point, which makes the Over a narrow but consistent pick across the simulations.
Nearly 60% of the time, according to the model, one side of the spread comes through. That selection can be found at SportsLine.
Betting offers and how to watch
Two promotions are currently open for players who want to place bets on the game.
- DraftKings: $200 in bonus bets for new users after $5+ in wagers
- Kalshi: $25 bonus after $25+ in trades with the promo code CBSSPORTS
Kalshi’s promotion targets sports trading rather than conventional wagering, with the promo code needed at account creation to secure the bonus.
The model’s full picks, including the specific side of the spread it recommends, are posted at SportsLine now. The site also offers a complete breakdown of the NFL Australia game predictions, with the model’s reasoning laid out for each pick.
Both teams will be looking to start the season with a win after falling short against Seattle in last year’s playoffs. The 49ers and Rams each know that an early division win could set the tone for the months ahead, and Thursday’s game offers the first chance to make that statement.
Source: cbssports.com
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