Week 1 of the NFL opens with a slate full of division rivals and a few star-studded matchups, and SportsLine’s computer model has done its homework. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has locked in picks for every game on the board, and it is backing the Jaguars and the Eagles to cover their spreads.
The model enters the 2026 season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. It is also up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites since its inception. Now it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and betting lines.
Key picks from the model
At home against Cleveland, the Jaguars are the pick to cover in a Sunday 1 p.m. ET kickoff, and the model’s confidence is high. The Jaguars prevail versus the spread well over 50% of the time, which carries forward the success they posted last year when they led the league in ATS record.
The Jaguars were especially effective against the line when playing at home, covering in 78% of their contests, the best record across the entire NFL. Meanwhile, Cleveland struggled away from home, going 2-6 against the spread on the road, the second-worst mark in the league. SportsLine’s model shows the Over hitting in 61% of its simulations.
The Eagles covering against the Commanders on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET is another pick from the list. In contests that Jalen Hurts has both started and finished, Philadelphia has come out victorious in eight of its last nine meetings with Washington.
How the model works
Each game gets run through the model a total of 10,000 times, which creates probabilities for all possible outcomes, from who ends up winning to who covers the spread and whether the Over lands. Those simulation results sit side by side with the model’s selections.
“The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.”
Making your picks
SportsLine has issued its picks for every game on the Week 1 NFL slate, and it has flagged several underdogs that it says will come away with victories. Those selections could produce substantial profits for bettors. Every single pick is available at SportsLine.
The model’s picks are available now.
The Dolphins vs. Raiders angle
The Week 1 slate includes a matchup that might not attract the same level of attention as the divisional battles mentioned earlier, yet it remains compelling on its own terms. Dolphins vs. Raiders stands as the lone opener with both teams guaranteed to start a new quarterback.
The latest Week 1 NFL odds make Miami’s Malik Willis the challenger to Kirk Cousins, who has been handed the starting assignment ahead of Fernando Mendoza. Vegas comes into this matchup at 3 point on the spread, a position that follows a disappointing 2023 season during which the team went 7-10 against the spread.
What the model shows
The biggest bet here goes to the Jaguars covering at home. Jacksonville holds the best ATS mark from last season, while Cleveland ranks among the worst road teams in the NFL. The Over lands in 61% of the simulations run.
The Eagles are also a strong play. The Commanders ranked dead last in yards allowed last year and are in transition, with up to eight new starters and moving from a 4-3 base to a 3-4. Jayden Daniels may use his legs less to avoid the injuries he suffered in 2025, and Commanders left tackle Laremy Tunsil (triceps) is out. The model forecasts a 60% chance of covering the spread.
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