Hollywood’s unions are sounding the alarm on a 25-year slide in U.S. film and TV production spending. A coalition of guilds released a report on Monday showing that studios have shifted billions of dollars of production budgets overseas since the turn of the millennium, and the numbers are stark.
Studios spent 74% of their film budgets in the U.S. 25 years ago. Today, that figure is 42%. On TV, the drop is nearly as steep: 94% of spending was domestic two and a half decades ago, versus 64% now. The coalition behind Variety’s report includes IATSE, the Directors Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA.
The labor groups are pressing Congress to move. They are advocating for a federal production incentive of 20% to 30%, maintaining the U.S. needs to match the generous subsidies provided by Canada, the U.K. and other nations. The alliance is staging a rally on Tuesday in Glendale, where Sen. Adam Schiff and numerous Democratic members of the California delegation will be present.
The Numbers Behind the Slide
EY’s report follows money spent on movies with budgets of $5 million or higher, measured in 2025 dollars, alongside TV episodes costing at least $1 million for those 40 minutes or shorter, or $1.7 million for episodes longer than 40 minutes. The study is limited to output from major studios.
Major studios increased their total film production spending from $3 billion to $7 billion annually over the last 25 years. In television, production spending jumped from $933 million to $8.4 billion during the same period.
The increase in production volume has reduced the U.S. share of a much larger pie. Globalization of production has been underway since the turn of the millennium, even as the industry grew considerably over that period, according to the report.
The argument put forward by the unions rests on the idea that the American market has lost a significant portion of its own business. The unions say that if market share had remained constant, there would now be an extra $4 billion spent annually on TV and film production within the United States.
What the Report Doesn’t Explain
The report sticks to measuring the change rather than offering an explanation for why production has moved abroad. The authors admit the TV landscape has transformed so much over the last two decades that drawing direct comparisons is difficult.
“The rise of streaming fundamentally altered production scale, budgets, season lengths, and release models, creating discontinuities in what constitutes a comparable television series across periods,” the authors wrote.
The numbers behind the big-budget films show a similar pattern. The share of the U.S. market held by the 25 most expensive films fell from 74% to 34% across the 25-year period. These 25 films made up a quarter of all productions put out by the major studios, yet they accounted for half of the crews employed and two-thirds of the budgets spent.
“This highlights that production budgets are heavily concentrated within a small subset of films,” the report notes. “Patterns observed within this group generally reflect the broader analysis trends, albeit with a somewhat larger decline.”
The Case for a Federal Credit
The unions are making a simple argument: state-based subsidies aren’t enough. They want a federal incentive that combines with existing state programs to create the world’s most generous production regime.
Last month Schiff and other lawmakers introduced a federal credit meant to sit alongside state-based subsidies. Backers now carry support from President Trump, who backed the idea in August. They hope the incentive becomes law before the year ends.
Members of Congress have focused on the sharp downturn in domestic production jobs since the end of Peak TV in 2022. The report ties the decline to the broader shift in how entertainment is made and consumed.
The Motion Picture Association’s Counter
Last month, the Motion Picture Association released its own report, asserting that a federal incentive could produce an extra $22 billion in annual domestic production spending by 2035.
Instead of measuring a historical trend in market share, the MPA report warned that market share will decline in the future if Congress does not act.
The Rally in Glendale
On Tuesday, lawmakers and union leaders gather in Glendale to press for federal action.
Unions possess the evidence that demonstrates the downturn, along with the determination to attempt correcting it.
The Key Figures
| Category | 25 Years Ago | Today |
|---|---|---|
| Film production spend in U.S. (major studios) | $3 billion annually | $7 billion annually |
| TV production spend in U.S. (major studios) | $933 million annually | $8.4 billion annually |
| Film budget share spent in U.S. | 74% | 42% |
| TV budget share spent in U.S. | 94% | 64% |
| Market share of 25 most expensive films | 74% | 34% |
What Happens Next
The federal incentive is the immediate battleground. The unions have the political momentum, with Schiff’s office leading the charge and Trump’s support adding weight.
Over the next several months, the battle will unfold in Washington. Unions have assembled a rally, a coalition and a distinct message to make their case.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. has lost significant market share in film and TV production over the last 25 years. The unions have the data to prove it, and they have the political will to try to fix it.
What determines whether the fix works is Congress’s decision. The federal incentive rests on the wager that a carrot changes behavior. The MPA’s numbers indicate the payoff could be enormous.
Glendale’s rally serves as the first step. The coming months will decide if the U.S. can stop falling behind.
The argument from the unions has been presented. The next step is watching whether Washington responds.
Key figures in the report:
- Studios spent 74% of film budgets in the U.S. 25 years ago; today, 42%
- TV spending dropped from 94% domestic to 64% today
- The 25 most expensive films’ U.S. market share fell from 74% to 34%
- Film production spending rose from $3 billion to $7 billion annually
- TV production spending jumped from $933 million to $8.4 billion
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the guilds’ demand for a federal production incentive but is against any new rulebook that would raise the cost of entry for independent producers. The decline in domestic production spending is real, and the unions have the numbers to prove it. But the paper is wary of a federal mandate that could lock in the very concentration of power the industry already shows — the 25 most expensive films alone accounted for two-thirds of the budgets spent.
The guilds are asking Congress to match foreign subsidies through a federal incentive, which is a targeted request rather than a broad rulebook. The paper supports that approach. But the motion picture association’s own report warns that market share will decline further unless Congress acts, which is a forecast, not a proven cause-and-effect link. The paper’s caution applies to any expansion of federal authority, especially when the biggest players may have shaped the proposal.
The rally in Glendale is the first test of political will. The coming months will show whether lawmakers respond to the guilds’ evidence or let the trend continue. The paper will watch whether the incentive actually helps independent producers compete, or whether it simply rewards the largest studios while raising the bar for everyone else.
Source material: “Hollywood Unions Warn of 25-Year Decline in U.S. Production Market Share,” Variety.
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