As the November election draws near, Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate candidate in Texas, is receiving significant backing from outside groups. Through September, pro-Paxton ad reservations have reached over $94 million, while his opponent, Democratic nominee James Talarico, has booked roughly $20 million.
According to AdImpact, Republicans are spending more on boosting Paxton’s campaign in September than Democrats have put toward advertising in Texas throughout the whole election cycle. This difference fits into a wider trend: Republican candidates and groups have promised to spend over $557 million compared to Democrats’ $343 million across the nine most closely watched Senate contests this fall, based on an NPR examination of AdImpact figures.
Paxton’s Spending Problem
Talarico spent more on television advertising during his primary than Paxton did, and he also spent more when he first presented himself to voters. By the most recent campaign finance deadline, which came at the end of June, Talarico held 12 times the cash on hand that Paxton possessed.
Last week at the Republican convention in Dallas, Paxton tried to frame the disparity. “He is the most radical Democrat in Texas history, but he’s also the most well funded,” Paxton said of Talarico. “Which is why today I need your prayers, your votes and your support.”
The Outside Groups Fueling the Spending
Two new Trump-aligned PACs have joined MAGA Inc. and Texas PAC in securing major reservations, a pairing that has brought Senate Republicans into alignment with both groups.
Trump’s Own Numbers
Trump told reporters recently in the Oval Office that he has “close to $1 billion” in the super PAC and is allocating “probably $400 or $500 million” to the midterms. He added that he and his allies were “going to spend a lot of money because we don’t want to lose our country.”
What the Ads Are Locked In For
Neither side in Texas has secured any ads from October on, whereas the Ohio Senate contest has over $116 million booked for the remainder of the campaign.
The Money Question
Spending on advertising buys time on the airwaves, yet it cannot purchase goodwill from the public. The real test is whether that investment can shift the balance in contests where the political climate already leans against the spender.
- Paxton was outspent on TV ads during his primary and again when Talarico introduced himself to voters.
- Pro-Paxton ad reservations for September total more than $94 million, versus roughly $20 million for Talarico.
- Republicans have pledged to spend more than $557 million to Democrats’ $343 million in the nine most competitive Senate races.
Who Is Outspending Whom
| Race | Paxton’s Reservation | Talarico’s Reservation |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | More than $94 million | Roughly $20 million |
| Texas cycle total | More than Democrats’ full-cycle total | — |
| Nine most competitive races | Republicans: $557 million | Democrats: $343 million |
The September Gap
September stands apart from the rest. The Republican total for that month alone, aimed at raising support for Paxton, exceeds what Democrats have spent across the whole cycle on ads in Texas.
The October Quiet
Neither side has secured any ad bookings for Texas from October on.
The scope of the spending has never before been attempted, and it is being used in some of the most closely contested Senate races across the nation. It remains unclear whether it will change the outcome.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs individual freedom and small business and is against treating the Senate race as a contest between two machines gathering power, noting that outside spending on Ken Paxton’s campaign far outpaces that of his opponent James Talarico. The scale of outside money now locked into Texas Senate ads dwarfs anything Democrats have spent here, and the gap is widening even as Paxton tries to make it look like Talarico holds the upper hand.
This is not a normal campaign, and the paper is against framing it as one. Paxton’s numbers are down on TV spending at every turn, yet outside groups are flooding in behind him, with MAGA Inc., Texas PAC and two new Trump-aligned PACs securing major reservations. Trump himself says he has close to $1 billion in the super PAC and is allocating hundreds of millions to the midterms.
The paper wants the focus to stay on the issues, not on who spends the most. Voters should watch the October quiet: neither side has booked any ads past that month, and the spending gap will likely grow wider still.
Source material: “Republican 'cavalry' arrives with a Trump-backed $150 million ad blitz in key races,” NPR.
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