Mexico’s Pacific coast is being targeted by Hurricane Polo, a Category 4 storm that ranks among the most powerful in recent memory, driven by El Niño. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami has labeled it “extremely dangerous,” and the hazard area extends well past the eye.
Polo was about 165 miles south of Zihuatanejo and 320 miles southeast of Manzanillo, moving slowly north with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. That puts it at Category 4 strength, though it previously topped out as a Category 5 storm. The NHC expects fluctuations in intensity but says Polo will remain a very powerful major hurricane for days to come.
Polo’s path and the land it threatens
The hurricane-force winds reach a distance of up to 40 miles from the storm’s center, while tropical storm-force winds stretch out to 105 miles. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to occur along the Pacific coast of Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima states through Wednesday into Thursday.
Experts suggest Polo will not come ashore, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Still, the winds alone are enough to unsettle anyone near the shore. Behind Concepción López Villegas, men and children watched the churning waters as she prepared her seaside restaurant in Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, where strong waves were already lapping at the coastline.
“We’re worried and trying to protect our businesses,” López Villegas said. “And of course, we’re sad because it’s our heritage, our legacy that from one moment to another could be destroyed.”
Odalys watches from a safe distance
On Wednesday, the Pacific system Odalys grew from a tropical storm into a hurricane while staying well away from any land. Odalys reached Category 1 strength, sitting roughly 1,295 miles from the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, heading east-northeast at 9 mph with winds that pushed up to 75 mph.
The storm known as Polo has become the third Category 5 hurricane of the current Pacific season, following behind Genevieve and Lowell, which both reached that level earlier this year. A Category 5 hurricane represents the highest ranking on the Saffir-Simpson scale, carrying winds that go beyond 157 mph.
What El Niño has to do with it
Scientists and officials alike have been taken aback by how fast Polo grew stronger. The NHC’s own report described the speed of its rise in strength as “truly remarkable,” noting the change happened within 24 hours.
El Niño is driving the intensification, according to Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. The same weather pattern has sparked severe droughts in Mexico and Central America while causing flooding elsewhere in the region.
“In the Pacific, it has resulted in warmer waters and wind patterns that act as fodder for hurricanes,” Klotzbach said. “There are all the ingredients that hurricanes need to get really strong really fast.”
Professor Kristen L. Corbosiero, who teaches at the University at Albany’s Department of Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences, was direct about it. “This is one of the strongest storms ever in the (Pacific) Basin,” she said.
The danger zones
Flash flooding and mudslides may happen because of heavy rain. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain is expected for Guerrero and Michoacán states, while less is possible for coastal parts of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco states.
Mexican authorities have issued warnings for water and beaches, and the U.S. Embassy in Mexico is asking American citizens to pay attention to them. The embassy also told citizens to keep away from both. “Even if the storm does not make direct landfall, heavy rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,” the embassy wrote. “Hazardous ocean conditions – intensified by storms – may result in deadly rip currents and rogue waves.”
Ports shut down, classes suspended
Ports in the states of Guerrero and Michoacán were closed by Mexico’s navy, which also issued warnings to civilians and fishermen. In several regions, classes were put on hold Tuesday.
López Villegas describes a scene of empty beaches and dark clouds swirling above choppy seas, which conveys the anxiety of a community watching a storm that could ruin decades of effort in an instant.
What comes next
The storm is forecast to make a sudden turn toward the northwest before shifting west-northwest over the coming days. While the National Hurricane Center expects Polo to remain at sea, it carries warnings about the hazards that accompany it.
This year has gone on longer than any other hurricane season on record without a single storm forming in the Atlantic. Not a single hurricane has come into being yet this year. The reason is the same: El Niño is working against the storms, crushing them before they can fully develop.
Key facts
- Category: Category 4, previously Category 5
- Winds: 150 mph sustained, up to 215 mph in 2015 (Hurricane Patricia)
- Distance from land: 165 miles south of Zihuatanejo, 320 miles southeast of Manzanillo
- Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches expected in Guerrero and Michoacán
- Hurricane-force winds: Up to 40 miles from the center
- Tropical-storm-force winds: Up to 105 miles from the eye
| Storm | Category | Wind speed | Distance from land |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polo | 4, previously 5 | 150 mph | 165 miles south of Zihuatanejo |
| Odalys | 1 | 75 mph | 1,295 miles off Baja California |
Preparations are urgent, and the concern is genuine, yet the storm’s course has not been settled. All anyone can do now is sit tight and keep an eye on it.
Source material: “Hurricane Polo off Mexican coast is among 'the strongest storms ever,' fueled by El Niño,” ABC7 Los Angeles.
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