Matt Cole, the chief executive of Strive, a company that buys and holds Bitcoin, has a simple argument: the dollar is about to break, and Bitcoin is the only thing that stands between the United States and a full-blown debt crisis. On Bloomberg Crypto, Cole said Bitcoin could “effectively go to infinity versus the dollar,” and he is not talking about the usual scarcity narrative. He is talking about the federal government’s balance sheet.
The logic is straightforward. Cole believes the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are artificially holding down long-term interest rates by buying government bonds. That intervention, he says, is masking a much bigger problem: the federal budget deficit. Without that intervention, the 10-year Treasury yield would already sit north of 10%, he argues. And when that mask falls, the dollar will weaken sharply, and Bitcoin will rise in response.
Cole’s Dollar Bet
Cole’s central claim is that the dollar’s collapse is not a story about Bitcoin’s limited supply. It is a story about US fiscal policy. The federal government spends far more than it takes in, and it borrows the difference by selling bonds. The Treasury and the Fed have been buying those bonds in record quantities, which keeps borrowing costs low and gives the illusion of stability.
Cole credits Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with capping long-end rates for now. But he says that intervention only delays a reckoning. Neither party in Washington shows any willingness to cut spending, he argues, so the debt pile keeps growing. Eventually, the bond market will stop absorbing new issuance at current prices. When that happens, long-term interest rates will spike, and the dollar will lose value.
His conclusion is blunt: “We think Bitcoin can effectively go to infinity versus the dollar.”
The 50% Compound Growth Target
Strive has been one of the more aggressive buyers of Bitcoin through this bear market. The company raises capital to buy and hold BTC on its balance sheet. Cole’s public forecast is that Bitcoin will grow at a 50% compound annual growth rate through 2030. He calls that figure conservative, citing the asset’s past bull-market cycles.
He first laid out this view when he called the bear market over last month. The SATA preferred stock Strive issued, which pays a daily cash dividend, has outperformed Bitcoin itself by more than 100% in 2026, according to Cole. Even as BTC has traded roughly flat, the preferred shares have moved higher.
Why the Treasury Model Holds
Cole also pushed back on the idea that the Bitcoin treasury company model is fading. He argues it never broke, only that firms without a clear thesis or sound debt terms struggled once the bear market hit. Disciplined buyers kept accumulating even as Wall Street treasuries resumed buying. His framing puts Bitcoin’s price action second to a wager on US fiscal dysfunction.
The bet is not about Bitcoin being scarce. It is about the dollar being overvalued. If Cole is right, the dollar’s weakness will push investors toward an alternative store of value. Bitcoin, he argues, is that alternative.
The Reclamation of $3 Trillion
Digital assets have reclaimed $3 trillion in market value since January. Cole sees that recovery as evidence of broader demand. The market is finding its footing again, and the companies that survived the downturn are positioned to benefit.
The SATA preferred stock Strive issued, which pays a daily cash dividend, has outperformed Bitcoin itself by more than 100% in 2026, according to Cole. That performance suggests investors are willing to pay up for income, even as BTC has traded roughly flat.
The Bear Market Call
Cole called the bear market over last month. His forecast of a 50% compound annual growth rate through 2030 is tied to that call. If the bear is truly over, the next few years could see significant gains.
But Cole’s argument depends on a specific sequence of events:
- The Treasury and the Fed must step back from the bond market entirely.
- Long-term interest rates must spike.
- The dollar must weaken.
- Bitcoin must absorb the resulting demand for an alternative store of value.
What Cole Is Really Saying
Cole’s argument is not about Bitcoin’s technical limits. It is about political limits. The US government has borrowed too much, and the only thing keeping the system together is constant intervention. When that intervention stops, the system will reset. Cole believes Bitcoin will be the beneficiary of that reset.
The 50% compound annual growth rate is a target, not a guarantee. Cole calls it conservative based on past bull-market cycles. But the target is tied to his core assumption: the dollar will collapse under the weight of its own debt.
The Risk of the Bet
Cole’s thesis is compelling on paper. But it rests on a chain of events that may not happen in the order he predicts. The Treasury and the Fed could continue intervening for years. They could raise taxes to close the deficit. They could cut spending. Any of those outcomes would weaken his argument.
The risk is that the dollar does not collapse. If the US government manages to stabilize its finances without a crisis, Bitcoin’s narrative loses its anchor. The scarcity story might return, but Cole’s version of the future would be wrong.
Cole’s View on the Model
Cole’s defense of the treasury model is worth noting. He argues that the model never broke. Only the firms without a clear thesis or sound debt terms struggled during the bear market. The disciplined buyers kept accumulating, and the Wall Street treasuries resumed buying.
That reading of the market is notable. It suggests the bear market was not a rejection of the treasury model. It was a rejection of poor execution. The companies that entered with discipline and sound financing survived. The ones that did not survive.
The Bottom Line
Cole’s argument is bold. It is also specific. He is not predicting Bitcoin will go to infinity in some abstract sense. He is predicting it will go to infinity against the dollar because the dollar is about to break.
Whether that happens depends on a series of political and economic decisions that are outside his control. The Treasury and the Fed could act tomorrow. Or they could act in five years. Or they could never act at all.
For now, Cole is betting on the latter. He is doubling down on his public forecast and his SATA preferred stock. Whether that pays off depends on whether the dollar collapses first.
The question is not whether Bitcoin can go to infinity. It is whether the dollar can stop collapsing before Bitcoin gets there.
Source material: “Strive CEO: Bitcoin Could ‘Go to Infinity' as Dollar Debt Crisis Breaks,” Yahoo Finance.
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