The matchup between Clemson and California takes place Friday night at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, Calif., and the SportsLine Projection Model expects the total to fall short of 50.5 points. Each team enters the contest with a 2-1 record, and both feature a promising young quarterback.
Clemson freshman Tait Reynolds got his first game of the season against North Carolina in Week 3, and his team came back from an early deficit to win 28-20. Meanwhile, Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ran for 413 yards and three touchdowns in a big win over Wagner. The two teams will meet at 10:30 p.m. ET.
The Model’s Record
This simulation runs every FBS matchup 10,000 times and has started the year with a 19-22 record across all top-rated college football picks at betting sites. The model was recently upgraded for the 2026 campaign to better account for players moving through the transfer portal.
Why the Under
Clemson has been the enigma through three games. The Tigers rank 128th in total offense and 116th in total defense.
Cal’s two games against FBS-level teams have produced 21 and 24 points for the Bears. While the team can throw the ball well, a one-sided approach to offense has made its attack easier to read and therefore simpler to stop.
The Tigers spent last season living under the Under, posting a record of 3-8-2. That same total landed in 60% of Cal’s home games. The model now forecasts 45 combined points, with the Under marking an A-rated pick.
Spread Pick
The model predicts that one side of the spread reaches its target in more than 50% of all simulations, alongside the Under being selected. That pick is available exclusively at SportsLine.
The model projects 45 combined points as the Under hits in an A-rated pick.
What We Know So Far
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET at California Memorial Stadium
- Total: Under 50.5 points
- Spread: Clemson is 1.5-point favorite
- Model record: 22-19 on top-rated picks
- Cal home Under record: 60%
The Model’s Picks
You can visit SportsLine now to see the full spread and money-line picks, all from the advanced model that’s on a 22-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks.
The Verdict
The model has a 22-19 record this season, so it deserves attention. Clemson vs. California is a matchup of two 2-1 teams with young quarterbacks, and the model thinks the game will stay under 50.5 points.
The model does not decide whether you should go with the Under or the spread. To find out which side of the spread to back, you need to head over to SportsLine. Its track record shows it has a good handle on what it is doing.
Source material: “Clemson vs. California prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 4 college football Friday picks by proven model,” CBS Sports.
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