Republicans are terrified. The party is locked in a grim fight for control of the House, and the signs keep pointing in one direction: toward disaster. Trump’s approval ratings are at historic lows for a sitting president, and the polls suggest the public is punishing his party for it. The question now is whether the doomers are right — or whether they are simply overreacting.
Approval Numbers Keep Dropping
Trump’s latest job approval was 37% in a Wall Street Journal survey. Recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average ranged from 33% to 44%. The RCP average sits at 38.7%, which is terrible for a president leading his party into midterms. Trump’s approval rating is not expected to change, per a newsletter question posed on Sept. 9.
“GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Toward Dems”
That headline, from the Cook Political Report, sums up the mood. The party is on track to lose the House majority, and the numbers are shifting fast.
Doom Loop Inside the Party
One GOP politico said many Republicans are believing/hoping “it will be bad, but not real bad” — “possible but not likely.” The thinking is simple: they expect losses, but they hope the damage is limited. They want a bad night, not a bloodbath.
Another politico warned of “a bloodbath nationally” but urged incumbents to focus on “local, local, and more local” and avoid “DC-based messages.” The tension is real. Some want to fight the national fight; others want to hide from it. Both camps believe the other is wrong, but neither can prove they are right.
One politico noted “in EVERY survey, the independents are against us.” That is the key number. Independents are the swing voters, and the party has lost them badly. The doomers are not just worried about losing the House; they are worried about losing the country.
Winston’s Warning From History
David Winston, a longtime Republican strategist and pollster, put the problem in context. He pointed to the 2022 election, which was a base election that gave Republicans the best Party ID advantage in exit polling history. But they lost independents by 2 points.
In 2010, Republicans won independents by 19 points and gained 63 seats. That year, the party won the independent vote handily and swept the House. This year, the party is losing the same group by a smaller margin — and the losses are already showing up in the polls.
Winston described independents as “a center-right group.”
The Independent Problem
Independents currently hold unfavorable views of both parties at 44%. Their top issues are economic-related by a wide margin. Trump has a very poor standing with that group. The combination is toxic for a party that needs their votes to survive.
The party has a structural problem. It is not just Trump’s unpopularity. It is the broader economic anxiety that independents feel.
2022 Election in Numbers
The math is simple. In 2022, Republicans won 222 seats compared to 242 in 2010 — a difference of 20 seats. That matches the difference in the margin among independents, who gave Republicans a 2-point loss in 2022 after giving them a 19-point win in 2010.
The pattern is consistent. When independents lean Republican, the party wins big. When they lean Democratic, the party loses big. This cycle, they are leaning the wrong way again.
What the Doomers Are Doing
The doomers are not just predicting failure. They are warning about it. By making the worst-case scenario seem inevitable, they hope to force the party to act. They want candidates to run on local issues, not national ones. They want campaigns to focus on the economy, not on culture wars.
The problem is that the doom loop is self-reinforcing. When candidates believe the race is lost, they campaign like it is lost. They run negative ads. They skip key districts. They assume the worst and act on it. That behavior makes the outcome more likely, not less.
The Bottom Line on Doom
The doomers are not wrong about the polls. Trump’s approval ratings are historically low. The independent numbers are historically bad. The Cook report shows races shifting toward the Democrats. All of that is real.
But the doomers may be overreacting to those facts. The 2022 election showed that even with a terrible national environment, the party still held the House. The 2010 election showed that even with a mediocre national environment, the party still won big. The pattern is not fixed.
The party has faced worse. It has survived worse. And it has won worse. The doomers are right about the danger. They are wrong about the inevitability.
| Date / Measure | Number |
|---|---|
| Trump’s approval | 37% |
| RCP average approval | 38.7% |
| Independent unfavorables | 44% |
| 2022 seats | 222 |
| 2010 seats | 242 |
| 2022 independent margin | -2 |
| 2010 independent margin | +19 |
The doomers are right about the polls. They are wrong about the inevitability. The party has faced worse. It has survived worse. And it has won worse.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs judging candidates issue by issue against its north star of individual freedom, small business and no concentrations of power, and is against treating politics as a horse race between two machines that both gather power. The doomers are right about the polls but wrong about the inevitability. The party has faced worse. It has survived worse. And it has won worse.
The numbers are real. Trump’s approval sits at 37% in a Wall Street Journal survey, and the RealClearPolitics average hovers around 38.7%. Independents hold unfavorable views of both parties at 44%. The pattern is consistent: when independents lean Republican, the party wins big. When they lean Democratic, the party loses big.
The doomers warn of a bloodbath nationally but urge incumbents to focus on “local, local, and more local.” That advice tracks the paper’s position: campaigns should run on local issues, not national ones. The paper would rather see candidates running on the economy than on culture wars.
Source material: “Are GOP doomers overreacting?,” the Washington Examiner.
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