Prisco’s Week 4 picks are here, and they come with a new month and a clean slate after September ended. The man behind them admits that his record from the prior week was poor: he went 8-8 straight up and 6-9-1 against the spread. His season totals now stand at 29-19 straight up and 21-26-1 against the spread.
October is the month the writer believes will bring change. He writes that the first two weeks of the new month are when the league begins showing its contenders and pretenders, which he hopes makes the choosing a little simpler. “Let’s just say I am happy October is here,”
First, the objective is to cross the .500 threshold when it comes to betting results. Once that happens, the next step is to start behaving like a team with real ambitions.
Browns and Steelers open the week
Thursday night’s AFC North opener features the Browns hosting the Steelers on Amazon Prime. Each team carries a record of 2-1, and the Browns stand among the early-season surprises. The Steelers showed their strength last week by beating the Bengals, though the Browns have held their own against them at home in Cleveland.
Prisco has labeled the game an upset special, forecasting the Browns will move to 3-1 with a 21-20 victory.
Colts and Commanders meet in London
This week’s international fixture pits the Colts against the Commanders in London. Each side secured its first win of the season last week, and the selection calls for a high-scoring affair between the two.
The Colts defense showed improvement, while the Commanders defense made some big plays. The pick expects both teams to score a lot, but it’s the Colts who will win it late, 31-30.
Patriots face Bills in Buffalo
New England heads to Buffalo for a Sunday afternoon contest on CBS, streaming on Paramount+. This marks the Patriots’ second road trip in a row, following a poor performance at Jacksonville. The pick sees Drake Maye’s current issues continuing in this matchup.
Josh Allen gets back on track after a so-so game last week. The Bills win it, 30-17.
Jets and Bears clash in Chicago
This week the Jets are again traveling to play away from home, marking their second such game in succession. The Bears, meanwhile, are facing a compressed schedule. Chicago showed real strength in their lopsided win over the Eagles on Monday night, and it now seems likely that Tyson Bagent will take the field under center.
Chicago is expected to keep winning as their record reaches 3-1, 23-17.
Jaguars face Bengals in Cincinnati
The Bengals come back home after two weeks away, having lost to the Steelers last week. The Jaguars beat the Patriots last week, but this is a harder test against a team led by Joe Burrow and his passing game.
The Jaguars rank first in the league for points allowed against, yet that record will not stand in this game. The Bengals win it, 17-23.
Cardinals visit Giants in New York
Last week’s win over the Titans didn’t produce much offense for the Giants, though the conditions were punishing. The Cardinals lost on the road against the 49ers, but they showed some positive signs during that game.
The pick expects Arizona to beat San Francisco despite the team’s weaker status, with the final score landing at 21-24.
Rams and Eagles clash in Philadelphia
Monday night’s loss to the Bears left the Eagles looking terrible, and the Rams squandered a lead at Denver Sunday night. The Rams now face a lengthy journey to try and rectify that result, though they tend to perform well on the East Coast.
This pick expects a Philadelphia team that has turned its attention back to winning, after a narrow loss, 27-30 against the Bears.
Packers face Bucs in Tampa
The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries across the roster, but quarterback Baker Mayfield is among those sidelined, which leaves rookie Jalon Daniels set to make his first NFL start. The game takes place at home, yet that does not ease the difficulty of the situation.
The Packers need a win, and Jordan Love is expected to play better in this one, with a 27-21 final score projected.
Ravens host Titans in the revenge game
This matchup is a revenge game for Derrick Henry. He was allowed to leave by the Titans three years ago, and Baltimore is happy about that decision. With the team’s offense struggling badly and facing two away games in a row, Henry is set to carry the load for the entire attack.
“This won’t be pretty,” the pick reads. Ravens 33, Titans 14.
Texans face Cowboys in Houston
The person who arranged the matchups put the Cowboys at a disadvantage, scheduling them for an away game right after their defeat against the Ravens in Brazil. Houston has now played its last three games at home, with the 0-3 Texans hosting again this week.
According to the pick, the difference between winning and losing will come down to the defense, which improved last week. The Texans’ offensive performance is expected to be better than what they’ve shown recently, 24-18.
Dolphins face Vikings in Minnesota
A former Dolphins coach now leads the Minnesota defense against his old team, and he will be particularly fired up for this game since the franchise let him go. That makes the matchup all the more difficult for the Dolphins, especially with their star running back De’Von Achane sidelined from the offense.
The Vikings defense should create turnovers that produce points. That unit is built to disrupt and score off mistakes, and the odds look good at 27-10.
Chiefs and Raiders meet in Las Vegas
Two undefeated teams are set to collide, and few saw that matchup coming. Both squads just came away with road wins, and the rivalry between these two teams ensures these games are always entertaining to watch.
Patrick Mahomes will have a big day, and it is going to be enough for the Chiefs to win, with the score at 29-24.
Broncos face 49ers in San Francisco
Sunday night’s game was an impressive comeback win for the Broncos against the Rams. This is one of the best games of the week. The 49ers stand at 3-0 so far, led by Brock Purdy.
Purdy has a big day as the 49ers stay undefeated, 28-21.
Seahawks face Chargers in Los Angeles
The pick says the Seahawks trip to Los Angeles will be a difficult road game for the Dolphins, and the contest should come down to a close finish.
The stakes of a clean slate
So far, Prisco’s record shows mixed results. He sits at 29-19 straight up, a winning pace by that measure alone. But his ATS record stands at 21-26-1, a different story altogether, and he acknowledges it himself.
The straight-up success has come despite the struggles against the spread. The writer’s own assessment of his picks is honest: he went 8-8 straight up and 6-9-1 against the spread last week, and he is hoping October delivers better results than September did.
A writer who thinks October will decide which teams are truly serious puts his faith into the picks, and each one comes with an explanation. The Browns’ home advantage to the Rams’ suffer from travel weariness, while the Vikings carry a desire for vengeance against Brian Flores.
The stated objective of the ATS plan is to reach above a winning record against the spread. Once that mark is hit, the team moves on to acting like a contender.
What October tells us
According to the writer, the true form of the NFL becomes clear during the opening fortnight of October. That is when the league’s contenders and pretenders begin to part ways, and the matches played this week will play a key role in determining which clubs deserve mention and which are on the wrong course.
The picks cover a wide range of situations:
- A Thursday night AFC North opener in Cleveland
- A London game between the Colts and Commanders
- An undefeated showdown between the Chiefs and Raiders
- A revenge game featuring Derrick Henry
- A short-week game in Chicago
- A road test for the Rams in Philadelphia
- A rookie quarterback making his first NFL start in Tampa
The reasoning behind each selection is distinct. The Browns have emerged as an unexpected contender, the Colts showed marked improvement in their most recent game, the Patriots have found the going difficult away from home, and the Eagles have turned their attention back to football following a disappointing defeat. Across all four picks, the steady pattern points to a writer who expects October to reveal which teams truly belong among the elite.
The stated objective for ATS performance is simple: reach above a winning percentage of .500 against the spread. Once that threshold is crossed, the next step is to start acting like a team that belongs among the league’s top contenders.
A week of contrasts
This week’s slate pairs old rivals against each other while also introducing fresh matchups. The Patriots face the Bills in a divisional clash where the quarterbacks will be the focus. The Rams travel to take on the Eagles, matching a champion still adjusting to life on the road against a team that wants to establish its own identity. The Chiefs meet the Raiders in a meeting that carries weight for both franchises.
That range of reasoning is what shapes the selections. A number of them depend on the strength a team gains from playing at home, while others rest on how well a team has performed lately. Still others rest on the plain notion that the team that plays its best football will come out on top.
A collection of forecasts covers the entire league, ranging from a Thursday night game in Cleveland to a Sunday night contest in Seattle. Their accuracy will depend on how things play out on the field.
The pick to watch
This week’s biggest game is the Rams traveling to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. Los Angeles dropped a lead at Denver Sunday night after building one, and now a long trip to the East Coast will put their resolve on display. The Eagles struggled badly in their Monday night defeat to the Bears, but this matchup offers them a fresh start.
The selection has the Eagles tightening their focus and taking a narrow contest, 27-30.
The road ahead
The month of October has arrived, and the NFL is now in its fourth week. The selections for this round have been made, and the fixtures are set. A Thursday evening kickoff starts the proceedings, with a full day of Sunday afternoon matches following, capped by a Sunday evening fixture.
October has arrived, and the season’s first slate of games is about to begin. The picks are on the board, and the betting lines are fixed. Once the action starts, the outcomes will be known. Until then, the writer is starting anew, with October as the month that finally delivers.
Honest records, bold picks, and upcoming games all come together as October opens its doors, with the NFL set to find out what the month holds in store.
| Game | Pick | Record So Far |
|---|---|---|
| Browns vs. Steelers | Browns 21, Steelers 20 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Colts vs. Commanders | Colts 31, Commanders 30 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Bills vs. Patriots | Bills 30, Patriots 17 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Bears vs. Jets | Bears 23, Jets 17 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Bengals vs. Jaguars | Bengals 23, Jaguars 17 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | Cardinals 24, Giants 21 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Eagles 30, Rams 27 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Packers vs. Bucs | Packers 27, Bucs 21 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Ravens vs. Titans | Ravens 33, Titans 14 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Texans vs. Cowboys | Texans 24, Cowboys 18 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Vikings vs. Dolphins | Vikings 27, Dolphins 10 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | Chiefs 29, Raiders 24 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | 49ers 28, Broncos 21 | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
| Seahawks vs. Chargers | TBD | 29-19 SU, 21-26-1 ATS |
The selections sit upon the board, and the contests draw near. The opening of October arrives, and the league stands prepared to witness what the month will bring.
Source material: “Prisco's Week 4 NFL picks: Eagles upset Rams, Texans over Cowboys,” CBS Sports.
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