Fox News Poll: Michigan voters split between El-Sayed and Rogers
A new Fox News poll finds Michigan voters deadlocked in the Senate race, with Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican challenger Mike Rogers by a single point among likely voters. The survey of 1,203 Michigan registered voters, conducted Sept. 24-28, 2026, shows El-Sayed at 50% and Rogers at 49%, while registered voters show almost identical preference: 51% El-Sayed vs. 48% Rogers.
The Numbers Behind the Race
The poll’s likely voter sample included 1,028 respondents. Rogers held a narrow lead in an August poll, where he drew 51% to El-Sayed’s 47% among registered voters. That gap has closed.
More El-Sayed backers feel certain of their choice, with 87% saying they are certain compared to 80% of Rogers’ supporters. Fifteen percent of voters say they could switch candidates, including 18% of Rogers’ and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
Rogers’ Strongest Support Comes From
Rogers’ strongest support comes from:
- Men
- Rural voters
- White evangelicals
- Married voters
- Whites without a college degree
El-Sayed leads on others:
- Women
- Black voters
- College-degree holders
- Voters under age 45
- Union households
Party backing is strong on both sides. Rogers draws 95% among Republicans, with 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans supporting him. El-Sayed gets 93% from Democrats, 98% from DSA Democrats and 90% from non-DSA Democrats.
Independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.
Trump’s Shadow Over the Contest
Half of voters consider Trump extremely important to their Senate vote, favoring El-Sayed by 22 points. Trump won Michigan in 2024 by less than two points, and Rogers lost to Slotkin by less than half a point.
Fifty-nine percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s performance; 40% approve. Rogers draws 19% of Trump disapprovers, while 28% of those “somewhat” disapproving prefer El-Sayed.
The Financial Picture
Eleven percent of likely voters who backed El-Sayed’s primary opponent Haley Stevens say they plan to vote for Rogers. Four in ten falling behind financially back El-Sayed by 25 points; nearly half holding steady favor Rogers by 13 points; 36 points for those getting ahead.
The cost of living is extremely important to 7 in 10 voters, backing El-Sayed 13 points.
Issue Positions Matter
El-Sayed has an advantage on U.S. policy toward Israel (+8) and AI technology (+17). Rogers is favored among immigration-focused voters (+26).
Rogers trails on concern about being too close to Trump (39% vs. El-Sayed’s 36% on views being too liberal).
The Governor’s Race
In the governor’s race, Benson leads James 54% to 45% among likely voters. Twelve percent of those backing Rogers in the Senate race also support Benson.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs no team and judges the candidates issue by issue against its north star, individual freedom, small business and no concentrations of power, saying where each stands right and wrong rather than treating the race as a contest between two machines gathering power. The poll shows a dead heat where each candidate’s strength and weakness align with distinct groups, and voters making choices based on personal finances, Trump’s shadow and specific policy concerns.
The poll data reflects familiar fault lines: Rogers draws his strongest support from married white evangelicals without a college degree, while El-Sayed leads women, Black voters, union households and younger voters. Party loyalty is near-total on both sides, with MAGA Republicans fully behind Rogers and DSA Democrats fully behind El-Sayed. Independents lean slightly toward El-Sayed, and Trump’s approval rating splits the electorate roughly two to one against him. On policy, El-Sayed holds advantages on U.S. policy toward Israel and AI technology, while Rogers is favored among immigration-focused voters.
The financial picture matters most: voters falling behind financially favor El-Sayed by 25 points, while those holding steady lean toward Rogers by 13 points. The cost of living is extremely important to 7 in 10 voters, and El-Sayed benefits from that concern by 13 points. Trump’s importance to the vote favors El-Sayed by 22 points among those who consider him extremely important, though Rogers gains some ground among those who only somewhat disapprove. The governor’s race, with Benson leading James, adds another layer to the state’s political picture, with 12% of Rogers’ Senate backers also supporting Benson. The paper will continue to judge these candidates issue by issue against its north star, avoiding the horse-race framing that treats politics as a contest between two machines gathering power.
Key Facts Box
- Likely voters: El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 49%
- Registered voters: El-Sayed 51%, Rogers 48%
- Likely voter sample: 1,028 of 1,203 total respondents
- Poll fielded Sept. 24-28, 2026
- Rogers led August poll 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%
- Haley Stevens backers: 11% plan to vote for Rogers
- Cost of living concern: 7 in 10 voters, +13 for El-Sayed
- Trump approval: 40% approve, 59% disapprove
The poll shows a tight contest where neither candidate holds a commanding position. Rogers’ base is strong, but El-Sayed has broader appeal across key demographic groups. The financial picture shows voters struggling financially favoring El-Sayed, while those holding steady lean toward Rogers. The cost of living is a major concern for most voters, and El-Sayed benefits from that. Trump remains a central factor, with voters who consider him extremely important favoring El-Sayed by 22 points. Rogers loses ground among Trump disapprovers, even as he wins support from those who only somewhat disapprove. The governor’s race runs parallel to the Senate contest, with Benson holding a stronger lead over James.
Source material: “Fox News Poll: Michigan voters split between El-Sayed and Rogers,” Fox News.
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