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Alabama’s injury woes give Mississippi State its best chance at a win

Mississippi State hosts No. 7 Alabama Saturday in Starkville, with playoff odds on the line in a rivalry that's gone against the Bulldogs for nearly two decades.

By mitch·4 min read
A sold-out college football stadium crowd watches players warm up as the sun sets.

Mississippi State football fans have waited nearly two decades for this moment. On Saturday, the Bulldogs host No. 7 Alabama in Davis-Wade Stadium, and the program’s 16th-ranked status — its highest since 2022 — means the stakes are higher than ever.

ABC airs the contest at 11 a.m. CT, with the venue already full. The evening prior, country singer Hardy takes the stage at Humphrey Coliseum, which serves as Mississippi State’s home for basketball. According to athletic director Zac Selmon, the matchup could rank among the most significant he has seen.

“Probably the biggest (game) I can remember just because of all the other stuff we have going into it,” Selmon says.

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A Program Built Back Up

Mississippi State has come a long way since head coach Jeff Lebby’s 2-10 debut in 2024. Marc Votteler, the Bulldogs’ football general manager who oversees recruiting and personnel, says the change is visible in the stands.

“This place is buzzing like it hasn’t in a long time,” Votteler says.

The recruit tickets disappeared by midweek, and players who used to avoid visiting Starkville are now calling to make arrangements for their trips. This change stands out for a program that had trouble attracting notice during Lebby’s first season.

“We’re even getting guys who maybe in the summer and spring were like ‘No, we’re good.’ They are now like ‘Hey, how you guys doing, can I come to a game this weekend?'” Votteler says. “We kind of laugh about it now like ‘Oh, now you want to come visit?’ But it’s what you build for, man.”

State’s run of wins has kept a steady flow of prospects coming to campus. A good collection of them are expected on campus this weekend, much like the group that arrived last week to see the Bulldogs post a 31-24 victory over a ranked Missouri team, per 247Sports.

A Long Wait Against Alabama

Mississippi State hasn’t beaten Alabama since November 10, 2007, the first year of the Nick Saban era in Tuscaloosa. Kamario Taylor, the Bulldogs’ star quarterback, was eight months old when that happened.

Alabama has given State trouble in the past, and there have been near-misses along the way. In 2014, the Bulldogs were ranked No. 1 nationally when they fell 25-20 to Alabama. A few years later, in 2017, State had Alabama on the ropes before Jalen Hurts threw a game-winning touchdown with 25 seconds left, which devastated the home crowd.

The Bulldogs have hired five coaches since Sylvester Croom beat the Crimson Tide, and the final result hasn’t changed. Alabama has won the last meeting, and the program’s record against the Crimson Tide remains one loss in nearly two decades.

What Makes This Team Different

The quarterback on Lebby’s current roster has the potential to be remembered as the best in Mississippi State history, while the group of receivers around him may be the fastest the program has ever put on the field. Two defensive backs, cornerback Kelley Jones and safety Isaac Smith, decided to stick around instead of leaving, even as they faced a difficult situation.

The team’s path to this point included a 5-7 2025 season with multiple close losses that could have gone the other way. From a disappointing 2-10 debut to this weekend’s matchup, the Bulldogs have been building toward a potentially special season.

Playoff Odds on the Line

CBS Sports projects Mississippi State has a 22.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. A win over Alabama improves that number to 43.4 percent, giving the Bulldogs the 10th-best odds in the country to reach the postseason.

The October schedule sets up the rest of the season. After Alabama, the Bulldogs face No. 1 Texas, No. 11 LSU and Oklahoma. Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite on the road over Mississippi State.

The Faith in Starkville

Heath Jenkins, a Bulldogs supporter, understands how much a victory matters. He claims hosting Mississippi State this week would pose a challenge for any team.

“I would hate to play Mississippi State at home this week,” Jenkins says. “If we pull this one off and then have the off week, we’d really have some momentum.”

Saturday in Starkville will reveal whether the State faithful’s long December has ended, and whether the Christmas present they’ve wanted for nearly 20 years sits under the tree.

Key Facts Box

  • Kickoff: Saturday, 11 a.m. CT on ABC
  • Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite
  • Mississippi State is 16th-ranked, highest since 2022
  • Last win over Alabama: November 10, 2007
  • CBS Sports playoff odds: 22.8 percent, rising to 43.4 percent with a win

Schedule After Alabama

  • No. 1 Texas
  • No. 11 LSU
  • Oklahoma

Nearly two decades of dominance by Alabama in this series have prepared the Bulldogs for their current position. The program’s infrastructure has shifted, the talent is in place, and the crowd is ready for what comes next.

The contest on Saturday will answer whether Mississippi State can finally overcome its record against Alabama.

Source material: “The opportunity awaiting Mississippi State against No. 7 Alabama,” CBS Sports.

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