October began with bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulling in $134.4 million in fresh money, and the “Uptober” meme has held its ground so far.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $102.7 million on Thursday and another $31.7 million on Friday, according to Decrypt’s tracker. That’s $134.4 million in net inflows to start October. The green start followed a red finish: the funds shed $148.7 million on Sept. 30, which snapped a nine-session inflow streak that began Sept. 17.
The month of September still stood as their second-best month since October 2025, bringing in $2.65 billion in net inflows, according to SoSoValue data.
What Is Uptober?
“Uptober” is crypto shorthand for October’s track record as one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Over the past decade, the asset has averaged an 18% gain in October, Algoz’s Stephen Wundke told Decrypt. “Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside,” he said.
That average gain comes from a stretch spanning a full decade, and Wundke’s comment about traders seeing more upside than downside points to why the meme holds its appeal. October has historically treated Bitcoin well, and the ETF inflows suggest traders expect that pattern to hold. That is why the name carries weight.
Jobs Report Cuts Rate-Hike Odds
The employment numbers for September arrived Friday and gave the Uptober story more support. The U.S. economy gained just 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment climbed to 4.2%. That softer reading on the labor market takes some of the urgency off the Federal Reserve pushing interest rates higher, which usually works in favor of risk assets such as Bitcoin.
The odds for a rate hike in October, as tracked by CME FedWatch, dropped to 14% after the announcement, down from 70% earlier in the week. Bitcoin moved close to its September high of $87,354 on Friday, reaching as far as $87,173, before traders pulled back. On Sunday morning, per CoinGecko data, it was trading at around $85,000, up 0.5% over 24 hours.
Cumulative Inflows Stand at $58.1 Billion
According to Decrypt’s tracker, the combined money put into these funds since they began now stands at $58.1 billion, with the total value of everything held inside them sitting at $101.1 billion.
After a run that ended on Sept. 30, September itself delivered solid results. The month added $2.65 billion in net inflows, marking the second-best month since October 2025, according to SoSoValue data.
Traders on Myriad Bet Against a New High
Not everyone is sold on a breakout. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, put the odds at 93% that Bitcoin won’t set a new all-time high in 2026.
Year-to-Date Inflows Still Lag
Year-to-date ETF inflows remain under $1 billion after heavy outflows earlier in the year. The next tests come soon: September’s CPI report lands Oct. 14, and the Fed meets Oct. 28.
Those two events will shape the rest of the month.
The Numbers Behind the Story
- Thursday inflows: $102.7 million
- Friday inflows: $31.7 million
- Total October inflows: $134.4 million
- Sept. 30 outflow: $148.7 million
- September inflows: $2.65 billion
- Cumulative inflows since launch: $58.1 billion
- Total net assets: $101.1 billion
- Myriad odds of new high: 93%
- CPI report: Oct. 14
- Fed meeting: Oct. 28
Traders on Myriad are placing their wagers against the “Uptober” meme, even though the meme itself remains active.
Bitcoin has averaged an 18% gain in October over the past decade. Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside, as Wundke put it. But Myriad traders are giving Bitcoin a 93% chance of failing to set a new all-time high in 2026.
Both sides will be put to the test over the next few weeks. The CPI reading due on Oct. 14 and the Federal Reserve’s gathering on Oct. 28 will determine how investors expect interest rates to move, and those same expectations will in turn influence how much people want to own risky investments like Bitcoin.
For now, the ETFs are drawing dollars. They drew $134.4 million to open October, and the “Uptober” meme is starting green.
The month’s green depends entirely on what follows, with the figures that come after being the deciding factor.
Source material: “'Uptober' Starts Green as Bitcoin ETFs Draw $134 Million,” Decrypt.
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