Bitcoin moved back toward $84,000 on Thursday as US bond yields fell from their highest point in 24 years, with analysts watching whether the cryptocurrency can hold a local trend of higher lows.
The 10-year US bond yield hit 5.342%, its highest level since April 2002, before dropping to 5.251%. Bitcoin rose above $84,000 at the start of trading on Wall Street, according to TradingView data.
Bond Yields Reach New Highs
On Thursday, both the US 30-year and 10-year bond yields hit new record highs for their respective durations. The 10-year yield climbed to 5.342%, a level last observed in April 2002. It then declined to 5.251% at the time of writing.
The two yields reached their new peaks together, marking a rare simultaneous record high for bonds of different lengths. The 10-year yield’s 5.342% reading was its highest since April 2002, while the 30-year yield also topped out on the same day.
Mahmood Pradhan, former deputy director of the European department at the International Monetary Fund, told the New York Times that markets worldwide were “very nervous” about mounting public debt. Rising yields increase governments’ interest costs.
“The Middle East war has really turned everything around,” he said. Higher oil prices are already showing up in inflation data.
Inflation Numbers and Market Reaction
The PCE index, which the Federal Reserve considers its main measure of inflation, posted an August reading that fell short of what analysts were expecting. The figure came in at 3.4% on a yearly basis.
The markets barely reacted to the weaker reading, and analysts pointed to a shift in how PCE was calculated as the reason for most of the drop.
X followers were told by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen that yields had risen sharply since the market began worrying that the Fed was no longer taking inflation seriously.
“Well the bond market has revolted, and until the Fed gets a proper handle on inflation, this will likely continue,” Cowen added.
Bitcoin Holds Its Ground
The trading orders placed by buyers and sellers on exchange platforms showed growing activity on both sides of the current price. CoinGlass data pointed to two specific levels, $84,500 and $82,900, as the spots where trader interest was most concentrated at the moment of writing, each serving as a possible point of attraction for the market’s next move.
Within the past 24 hours, liquidations came to a total of $25 million, with nearby long and short positions doing their part to keep the market within a narrow trading band.
The $82,500 Test Ahead
Rekt Capital, trader and analyst, has forecast a fresh dip toward key support at around $82,500, warning that a retest there could prove disorderly.
He wrote on X, where “A successful retest there could set up the next trend continuation. History suggests this retest could get messy but let’s take it one level at a time and not look too far ahead,” is the place where his words appeared.
Previously, Rekt Capital said bulls’ ability to hold $82,500 as support would decide Bitcoin’s broader rebound.
What the Numbers Show
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year bond yield | 5.342% (high) | Highest since April 2002 |
| 10-year bond yield (current) | 5.251% | Fell from peak |
| PCE inflation (August) | 3.4% year on year | Below expectations |
| Bitcoin price | Above $84,000 | Higher lows on hourly charts |
The Bull Case Rests on Support
Bulls need Bitcoin to hold $82,500 as support, according to Rekt Capital. If it fails, the next leg down could be messy.
The current setup shows BTC/USD preserving a pattern of higher lows on hourly time frames, up 0.6% on the day.
What Comes Next
Bitcoin is fighting to keep a local uptrend as US bond yields drop from new 24-year highs. The outcome at $82,500 will determine whether the broader rebound holds.
The next trend continuation could follow if the test holds, but a break would send the path into rough waters fast.
The bond market will probably stay unsettled until the Federal Reserve gains proper control over inflation.
Source material: “Bitcoin fights for local uptrend as US bond yields drop from new 24-year highs,” Cointelegraph.
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