BTC/USD has posted its highest weekly close since late January at $86,532 on Bitstamp, but now it’s working to retake the 2026 yearly open at $87,570.
Data from TradingView shows brief wicks to $87,000 after that weekly close, marking Bitcoin’s fourth attempt to break higher since Sept. 21. Bulls have so far failed to reclaim the yearly open.
The Range Between Support and Resistance
Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst writing on X, says Bitcoin remains squeezed between two important levels. The coin sits wedged between the $82,500 support below and the $86,700 resistance above, with both markers still in play.
Rekt Capital sees $82,500 as the floor to avoid. Revisiting that level could pull Bitcoin back into the previous 2026 range between $60,000 and $80,000. A decisive move above $86,700, meanwhile, would open up the path to a higher range with $93,700 as its ceiling.
“Bitcoin continues to be sandwiched between the ~ $82500 key support and the ~ $86700 resistance ahead.”
Longer time frames continue to attract traders chasing liquidity, much like last week’s sessions. BTC/USD saw short positions get liquidated near $85,500, with bids and asks piling up around the spot price, keeping volatility tight. Data from CoinGlass points to concentrations at $83,700, along with the yearly open, as key resistance levels for traders watching the market.
Bond Markets Take Center Stage
This week, US macroeconomic data is limited, so attention has turned to bond markets. According to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, traders have pushed down the odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, putting the bond market in the spotlight. The letter made the case in an X post on Sunday.
The 10-year and 30-year bond yields reached 5.34% and 5.69% last week — levels unseen since 2002. After dipping modestly on weak nonfarm payrolls data, they recovered to wipe out most of the fall. As of Monday’s writing, the 10-year yield was at 5.25%.
The minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. Officials at that gathering voted to raise interest rates by 0.25%. In the time since, market expectations of additional policy tightening have swung back and forth.
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of another 0.25% hike at the October FOMC meeting hit 70% a week ago, but then fell to current levels of just 18%.
Analysts expect the Fed to remain hawkish through year end, with consensus still favoring a December hike. As a consequence, headwinds for crypto and risk assets will continue to persist.
“I think that’s the right move because I don’t think this report necessarily changes the story for the Fed,” Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard Advisory Services, told CNBC about the post-payrolls yield rebound.
Chubb saw the Fed continuing to keep rates “higher for longer” going forward, with inflation sticky and oil prices still volatile thanks to the Middle East conflict.
Seasonality and the October Picture
BTC price has risen since October began, according to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which says Bitcoin has already endured a historically challenging time at the start of the month.
“Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been its weakest three-day stretch of the month, averaging a 0.66% decline. 2026 has already held up better,” contributor Andrew Kamsky wrote on Sunday.
The BTC/USD pair climbed 1.4% over the opening stretch of October, with the month’s current profit sitting at 2.7%. Between the Oct. 1 close and the Oct. 3 close, the currency pair managed to escape any declines, despite the historical norm for that interval coming in at -0.66%.
CoinGlass data shows that on average since 2013, Bitcoin has ended October 18.7% higher, giving a 2026 target of just under $100,000. Over the past 13 years, there have been just three “red” October months, with the largest downside figure of -13% seen in 2014.
What to Watch This Week
Here is what matters in Bitcoin this week:
- Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from the Sept. meeting, which will cover the decision to raise rates by 0.25%.
- The October CPI release on Oct. 14, the next key inflation print after the August PCE index came in lower than expected.
- The seasonality pattern: October has started with upside, but the month’s history suggests some volatility ahead.
The August print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, did little to impact markets’ assessment of inflation trends despite coming in lower than expected. Changes in the way the index is calculated likely accounted for a portion of the drop, Kobeissi argued at the time.
The Bottom Line on Bitcoin’s Week
Bitcoin is caught between two numbers. The $82,500 support holds for now, and the $86,700 resistance keeps bulls from running. The weekly close at $86,532 was the highest since late January, but the 2026 open at $87,570 remains unbroken.
The Fed minutes and the bond market together set the wider scene. Traders are no longer pricing in additional rate hikes, with the odds of another move now standing at just 18%. Crypto remains under pressure, however, since the central bank is staying hawkish through year end.
October has historically treated Bitcoin well, with the coin finishing the month up an average of 18.7% since 2013, across a sample spanning 13 years. Only three October months have ended in losses during that stretch.
Three days remain to determine if Bitcoin can sustain October’s opening gains, or if it falls back into the historical weakness that has come to define the start of the month.
Source material: “BTC price fights to reclaim 2026 open: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week,” Cointelegraph.
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