Traders are waiting on the Federal Reserve’s September decision while bitcoin sits below $76,000, with the odds of a rate hike looking nearly locked in at 90%. Data from TradingView shows the currency fell to new September lows of $74,960 the day prior, which happened after a Senate bill failed to clear the chamber.
The Senate did not vote to move the CLARITY Act forward to the debate stage, and it fell short of the 60 required for passage. Now all eyes are on the Fed, which must navigate the narrow space between bringing down inflation and pleasing President Donald Trump, who has asked again and again that interest rates be reduced.
The Fed’s Dovish Surprise Odds
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is now more than a 90% chance that officials will confirm a 0.25% rate increase, which would bring the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%, based on the most recent readings.
The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, commented directly on the odds. “In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one,” it wrote in a post on X. “If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994.”
This gathering represents merely one of three rate-setting meetings scheduled for this month. Last week, the European Central Bank went ahead with a 0.25% increase, and the Bank of Japan is anticipated to follow suit at its own session on Friday. That move would push the Bank of Japan’s benchmark rate up to 1.25%, its highest point in 31 years.
Oil Prices Push Higher
Oil supply chains are under pressure from a growing conflict in the Middle East, pushing up prices across the globe, and central banks are feeling the strain. On Tuesday, US WTI crude oil reached $106.70 per barrel, its highest point since May 4.
Earlier reporting from Cointelegraph detailed how rising oil prices have pushed up US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
What the Order Book Shows
Glassnode, an onchain analytics platform, examined recent Bitcoin price behavior and looked at where BTC/USD might fall if it moves beyond its current trading band, a range that has held since Aug. 21.
The latest edition of The Week Onchain, the publication’s regular newsletter, reported that “Resting bids, the buy orders waiting in the book, have pulled in toward price. Nearly two thirds of the bids resting within 20% of price now sit between 1% and 10% below it, up from about half at the start of the year,”.
The bid orders suggest $68,000 as the next point where sellers may step in. Price is now positioned just beneath the True Market Mean, which reflects the aggregate cost basis of the currently active supply of BTC. A separate support level appears at $71,300, drawn from the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders — those who hold an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months.
“If the range breaks and those bids are used up, the next floor is the on-chain one at $62K to $65K, where the heaviest block of supply below the market was last bought,” Glassnode added, referring to the price at which around 9% of the supply last moved onchain.
The Path Ahead
The price of Bitcoin sits beneath $76,000, with traders keeping a close watch on the Federal Reserve. The odds for 90% point toward a rise in interest rates.
“If the range breaks and those bids are used up, the next floor is the on-chain one at $62K to $65K.”
Whether the bids hold or break remains unknown.
| Event | Date | Expected Action |
|---|---|---|
| ECB rate decision | Last week | 0.25% hike enacted |
| BoJ rate decision | Friday | 0.25% hike expected |
| Fed FOMC meeting | Sept. 16 | 0.25% hike favored |
The odds now favor a rate increase at the September 16 gathering, and whether the Fed actually delivers it will determine how things turn out.
The CLARITY Act’s failure leaves Washington without a new crypto regulatory framework this year. Bitcoin’s position just below the True Market Mean means a break in the current range would put it near the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders at $71,300.
The coin remains beneath the mark of $76,000, keeping its eye on the central bank’s moves, while awaiting the result of a vote that has already been rejected by Congress.
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