Bolsonaro and Lula will face off in a runoff on Oct. 25 after neither won a majority in Brazil’s first round of voting. The result sets up a final stretch between the country’s two most prominent political figures, each with a clear foreign patron and a different vision for Brazil’s future.
The Numbers From Sunday
According to the vote count, Bolsonaro has taken the lead with 56 million votes against Lula’s 53.7 million, with 99.8% of votes already counted. This result means both candidates advance to the runoff, where the winner will be sworn in on Jan. 5, 2027.
The son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of President Trump is Bolsonaro, 80. Lula, 45, is Brazil’s veteran president who is running for his fourth non-consecutive term.
Bolsonaro’s Message to Supporters
Bolsonaro addressed his backers outside his Brasilia house, where some wore green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman was wrapped in the Israeli flag. He said “Brazil wants change” and called it “the end of the Workers’ Party era.”
He also said “Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering” at the Rio de Janeiro voting center.
Lula’s Response
Lula called the result “unexpected” and said “Tomorrow we start a new campaign.” He added “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”
The Brazilian president has charged that the U.S. administration has sought to influence the election through tariffs, the revocation of the visa for Brazil’s ambassador to Washington, and sanctions against government officials and one Supreme Court justice. The charges remain unresolved.
What Each Side Stands For
Should Bolsonaro come out on top, it would mean a greater presence for the United States in Latin America. Should Lula emerge victorious instead, Brazil will stay at arm’s length from Washington while growing closer to China.
The president has vowed to target criminal groups and tie the president to corruption scandals. Bolsonaro’s campaign also includes freeing his father and restoring him to politics.
The fight Lula is engaged in has been made harder by two separate problems: a cost-of-living crisis and a corruption scandal tied to the very judge who oversaw the probe into Bolsonaro.
The Moderate Candidates Who Won’t Endorse
Two moderate candidates, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, have both stated they will not back either runner-up in the runoff. That stance means no single candidate has secured their support, leaving the field open for any number of possibilities.
What Voters Say
Polls show roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family and roughly half disapprove of Lula’s Workers Party.
A history professor and Lula supporter named Alvaro Senra, 65, said conservatives operated discreetly, including via neo-Pentecostal churches.
A cellphone seller from Brasilia named Maria Ribeiro, 50, backed Bolsonaro’s eldest son as a way to show her faith.
A photographer, Lorena Zschaber, 40, has stated that people felt more at ease discriminating during Jair Bolsonaro’s time in office.
Rosângela Resende da Rocha, 69, a former stay-at-home mom, said Lula’s social policies help the “less fortunate” and how he stands up to Mr. Trump.
The Integrity Test
Since Brazil moved to electronic voting in the 1990s, no major irregularities have turned up. The Organization of American States watched over the process and found voting to be proceeding smoothly under sufficient safety conditions.
The Superior Electoral Court’s president, Kassio Nunes Marques, has said voting is proceeding normally with the greatest possible transparency. Electoral authorities have assured that electronic votes are both secure and verifiable.
The Last Time These Two Met
About four years back, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, defeated the sitting president Jair Bolsonaro by roughly 2.1 million votes.
The runoff will now determine whether Bolsonaro’s family holds power or Lula returns to it. The stakes are high for Brazil, which leads Latin America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million.
Key Facts Box
– First-round votes: Bolsonaro 56 million, Lula 53.7 million
– Votes reported: 99.8%
– Runoff date: Oct. 25
– Next presidential term begins: Jan. 5, 2027
– Population of Brazil: 214 million
– Previous margin: Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by 2.1 million votes four years ago
The contest is now arranged. Over the coming weeks, Bolsonaro and Lula will present their positions to an audience that has already made clear it is divided.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither Bolsonaro nor Lula and supports a runoff election that maximizes individual freedom, supports small business, and avoids concentrations of power. The paper’s position is consistent: focus at home, keep trade and diplomacy open, and oppose foreign entanglements and trade wars alike. In this runoff, the choice is between two candidates, each with a foreign patron, and the paper’s north star points toward neither.
The contest is now arranged. Over the coming weeks, Bolsonaro and Lula will present their positions to an audience that has already made clear it is divided. The paper will judge each candidate issue by issue against its fixed positions, and it will say where each is right and where wrong, without joining the horse race between two machines that both gather power.
See the video the story is built around at CBS News.
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