Two weeks into the season and the College Football Playoff picture has already shaken itself apart. Oregon lost to Oklahoma State on Saturday, and the fallout is immediate: USC replaces Oregon in the bracket, and the Ducks are suddenly fighting to stay relevant.
Dan Lanning has replaced both coordinators at Oregon, and the results were not what anyone expected. The Cowboys snapped a 21-game losing streak against FBS competition, and the Ducks now need to win 10 games just to be in the at-large conversation. The schedule ahead is brutal: USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington all remain on the slate.
The flip side is that Oregon’s loss gives the rest of the bracket a chance to move up. USC gets the promotion, and the Trojans now face the Big Ten opener at Rutgers with the nation’s top-ranked signing class already showing immediate returns.
What the Bracket Looks Like Now
The new top four, according to Brad Crawford’s bowl projections, reads like this:
- Miami (ACC champion)
- Georgia (SEC champion)
- Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
- Notre Dame
Texas rounds out the top five, and the rest of the group includes Indiana, Texas Tech, LSU, USC, BYU and SMU. The SEC and Big Ten are the clear favorites for two bids each, with Utah, Oklahoma State, Houston and others pushing for the remaining spots.
The Ohio State-Texas showdown offered an early preview of which preseason elite holds the edge in September. Both teams play grueling schedules, and the comeback win for the Longhorns gives them a strong hand if they find themselves in an at-large CFP predicament later in the season.
Who Else Moves Up
Boise State stays put as the current Group of Six playoff favorite after dismantling Memphis with a dominant second half. With a favorable Mountain West schedule remaining and their two toughest games behind them, the Broncos will be heavy favorites to win out from here.
Notre Dame comes off another easy win in September, though BYU, Miami and SMU await as the three season-defining contests. The schedule is not light, but the Fighting Irish have plenty of must-watch matchups to play.
Texas finally conquered its kryptonite after coming from behind to beat Ohio State. Sarkisian’s biggest win of his tenure should push the Longhorns into Sunday’s new top-4 of the AP Poll.
Indiana is the second-best team in the conference behind the Buckeyes, with a trip to Nebraska on Oct. 10 coming up. The Hoosiers got their regulars out of Week 2 quickly and face three more likely lopsided matchups before that challenge.
The Bottom Line
This is a fast-moving season, and the first shakeup has arrived early. Oregon’s loss to Oklahoma State was the trigger, and the ripple effect runs through the entire bracket.
USC replacing Oregon is the headline, but the bigger story is how quickly things can change. A two-game sample size is small, but it is real, and the Ducks have to prove themselves again.
The lesson is simple: nothing is locked in yet. The season is young, the road is long, and the next two weeks will tell us far more about who belongs in the Playoff than any projection ever could.
Key Facts Box
– Oregon lost to Oklahoma State on Saturday
– USC replaces Oregon in the bracket
– Oregon needs 10 wins to be in at-large conversation
– Top four: Miami, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame
– Texas rounds out the top five
– Boise State remains Group of Six favorite
– Boise State’s two toughest games are behind them
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