President Trump is campaigning in reliably Republican states including Oklahoma, Alabama, and Nebraska. His approval rating sits at 38%, and the GOP is struggling to find a path through November that doesn’t drag him along with it.
The problem is simple: Trump’s popularity is a drag, and the party needs to win without him. Brooks lays out the vulnerabilities in the PBS interview, and the picture is not pretty for Republicans.
Trump’s Approval Slide
Trump’s approval rating has been falling steadily since Inauguration Day. Brooks describes the trend as a “ski slope,” declining steadily month by month, with a sharp acceleration during the summer when gas prices rose.
The president is currently speaking in Mobile, Alabama, in a district that would likely vote heavily for him if district lines were redrawn. He held a rally recently in a congressional district in Oklahoma that he would have won by 40 points.
These are safe seats. They should be easy wins. And yet the president’s presence is doing little to help the candidates running in them.
Paxton’s Problem
Ken Paxton, the Texas Republican Senate candidate, was caught on tape saying that Trump’s midterm convention hurt Republican numbers, according to The New York Times. Paxton’s campaign disputes that characterization.
Paxton is running in a closely watched race, and his own words suggest he believes Trump is hurting the party’s chances. The tape is unlikely to go away, and it raises questions about whether other candidates feel the same way but are too afraid to say it.
The message is clear: Trump is a liability, even in places where he should be an asset.
The Kansas Governor’s Race
In Kansas, the gubernatorial contest pits Democrat Adam Hamilton against an incumbent. Brooks speculates that a Democrat winning governor in Kansas “may happen this time.”
That speculation is notable because it reflects a broader shift in the state’s political landscape. Kansas has not elected a Democratic governor in decades, and the fact that Brooks is even considering it suggests the party sees an opportunity.
The incumbent is running in a state where Trump’s approval has fallen below 40%. That is a tough number to overcome, especially when the president is campaigning in nearby states and drawing attention away from local races.
AI and the Safety Agreement
The administration has pushed a voluntary AI safety agreement among tech companies rather than new government regulation. The president’s argument is that regulating AI would give China an advantage over the U.S.
The president’s framing is straightforward: regulate AI, and China wins. Leave it voluntary, and the U.S. stays ahead.
The Numbers Behind the Slide
Here is what the numbers show:
- Trump’s approval rating: 38%
- Oklahoma rally margin: 40 points
- District in Alabama: would vote heavily for Trump if lines were redrawn
- Gas price spike: summer months saw a sharp acceleration in the approval decline
- Paxton tape: caught on film saying Trump’s convention hurt GOP numbers
Each of these facts points in the same direction. Trump is unpopular, and his unpopularity is spreading.
What Republicans Are Facing
The GOP is in a bind. They need to distance themselves from Trump to win, but they also need him to energize the base. The two goals are not compatible.
Brooks identifies the vulnerability clearly: the president’s approval slide is dragging down candidates who have nothing to do with his policies. That is the core problem facing Republicans in November.
There is no easy fix. The party can try to distance itself from Trump, but that risks alienating the voters who still support him. Or it can embrace him, but that risks carrying the weight of his unpopularity into every race.
Either way, the math is hard. A candidate with a 38% approval rating is not a candidate anyone wants to run with.
The Paper’s Take
Clay Tribune shares the president’s skepticism about heavy-handed government control over technology. The paper opposes new government regulation of AI and supports a light-touch approach that allows the market to develop solutions without freezing out smaller players.
The paper’s principles align with the president’s position on AI. Less control, more freedom, and a recognition that regulation often protects the large players while punishing the small ones.
On the political side, the paper is skeptical of the GOP’s ability to run with Trump while distancing themselves from his policies. The tension between loyalty and pragmatism is a classic one, and it rarely ends well for the party that cannot resolve it.
The stakes are high. The midterms will test whether the GOP can hold its seats in Oklahoma, Alabama, and Nebraska, even as Trump’s approval continues to fall.
Republicans have a choice. They can run with Trump and accept the drag, or they can distance themselves and risk alienating the base. Neither option is ideal.
The coming months will show which path they choose.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs Brooks’ assessment of the GOP’s vulnerability and is against any plan that locks today’s political leaders in place rather than letting new challengers enter the race. The same logic applies to AI: when the biggest firms ask to be regulated, the paper asks who those rules would lock out. Licensing regimes and compliance costs only giants can afford are a moat, not a safeguard.
Brooks describes Trump’s approval as a “ski slope,” declining steadily month by month, with a sharp acceleration during the summer when gas prices rose. Paxton was caught on tape saying Trump’s midterm convention hurt Republican numbers, and the tape is unlikely to go away. In Kansas, Brooks speculates a Democrat winning governor may happen this time — a notable shift for a state that has not elected a Democratic governor in decades.
The paper opposes broad new rulebooks and rules the biggest firms helped write. It supports a light-touch approach on AI that allows the market to develop solutions without freezing out smaller players. On politics, the paper wants the GOP to let new challengers enter the race rather than locking in today’s leaders. The coming months will show whether the party can hold its seats in Oklahoma, Alabama, and Nebraska even as Trump’s approval continues to fall.
Source material: “Brooks and Atkins Stohr on GOP vulnerabilities in the midterms,” PBS.
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