The NFL’s Week 4 opener is a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns, and the bookmakers have set the total at 38.5. That number tells you everything you need to know about how this game is expected to play out: low scoring, wet conditions, and two offenses that both have problems moving the ball.
The man who made the selection admits he has lost two Thursday Night Football wagers back to back. He is now hoping to come out ahead on the Browns, who are listed at +3, and he is taking the points.
The Steelers Come Home With a 2-1 Record
Pittsburgh enters this game with a 2-1 record after winning both of their home games. They opened the season with a win over the Falcons, then followed that up with a victory over the Bengals last week. Their offense at home has scored a total of 50 points across those two games.
On the road in Week 2, the Steelers were held to just three points by the Patriots, which was a poor showing. That result has raised doubts about how Pittsburgh’s offense will perform away from Heinz Field for the rest of the season.
“The Patriots do seem to have a better defense than the average team, but you also need to question if the Steelers offense is going to struggle on the road this season.”
A Close Call Against the Bengals
The Steelers had a busy week 3, hosting the Bengals in a game that saw them score two touchdowns and put the ball in the end zone early on. The team looked strong in the first quarter before the game evened out, with the score tied by halftime.
The Bengals built an early advantage during the fourth quarter, only to see the Steelers answer back with two field goals that gave them the win. The defense has kept quarterbacks in check, limiting opposing teams to just 192.7 passing yards. However, the running attack has been merely adequate, surrendering 113 yards on the ground.
Cleveland Has Surprised Everyone
This franchise rarely inspires optimism, so the Browns’ current standing comes as a pleasant surprise. They sit at 2-1 for the season after winning their home opener last week. In Week 1, they appeared far more likely to end up with a record of 0-17 than to secure even two victories.
The Browns got off to a rough start, losing 10-34 to the Jaguars in the season opener while committing two turnovers: one fumble and one interception. Then in Week 2, they traveled to Tampa and emerged with a win over the Buccaneers. The victory was a solid one, even if the Browns didn’t overwhelm the opposition.
Week 3 saw the Browns overcome the Panthers with a final score of 21-18. The contest between Carolina and Cleveland was a close, back-and-forth fight, with Cleveland managing to score at the end to secure the win.
The Browns have the 10th-worst rushing defense in football, which means they can be run on with ease. They are merely average at defending the pass, though.
A Low-Scoring Trend Continues
There is a general agreement among the bookmakers about the current direction. Both sides have put together a run of very low-scoring matches over their last few meetings. The forecast calls for rain on the day of the game, which might cause the tempo to ease even more.
The running games for both sides aren’t strong, so the teams may find themselves throwing the ball more often than not. A low-scoring contest feels likely, and David believes the under will hold up.
Thursday Night Football has seen him lose the under for two straight weeks, which means he is not playing that market. His attention is now on the spread instead.
The Pick Lands on Three Points
Deshaun Watson has played well, according to David, who doesn’t love the Steelers. The points will matter here, he says, and his pick lands at three points with the Browns.
The writer believes Quinshon Judkins can surpass 55.5 rushing yards. He has gotten plenty of carries, and Pittsburgh’s run defense isn’t particularly strong.
What This Means for the Game
Cleveland offers good value at +3, with a chance to outperform expectations set at the season’s beginning. Pittsburgh has proven capable of winning at home, though its record away from home has been less successful.
Their ability to be run on stems from their rushing defense, which ranks at the bottom of the league at 10th-worst.
Rain can be expected to reduce how quickly the game moves forward, since it affects the conditions on the field.
Key Facts Box
- Total: 38.5
- Spread: Browns +3
- Browns’ record: 2-1
- Steelers’ record: 2-1
- Browns’ rushing defense: 10th-worst in the league
- Quinshon Judkins rushing prop: over 55.5 yards
While David has struggled with his picks on Thursday Night Football, he believes this selection will prove him right. The Browns have exceeded expectations through their first few games, and a victory at +3 would show just how far they have come.
Cleveland is the underdog at +3, which means the Browns are the pick. The forecast is a worry, yet the odds point toward a close contest. A strong running attack could carry the Browns to a cover. Pittsburgh has proven it can compete at home, though it has had trouble away from Heinz Field.
Source material: “Why the Browns and three points look like the play for 'Thursday Night Football' in NFL Week 4,” Fox News.
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