The Falcons and Saints meet on Monday Night Football with identical records and vastly different narratives. Both teams sit at 1-2, but the path to that point has been very different. Atlanta comes off a strong win where the offense clicked, while New Orleans has lost close games despite playing well late.
Here is the betting preview, based on the numbers laid out by the expert who offered this pick.
Penix Returns, Robinson Runs Wild
Atlanta’s biggest change this season has been at quarterback. The Falcons started with Cooper Rush, who showed promise but struggled to win games. Then Michael Penix Jr. came back into the mix last week, and the offense looked far more dangerous.
Penix threw for 256 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and completed 18 of 25 passes. That was a solid showing, but the real story was the running game. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards on 29 carries and scored two touchdowns. He looked like the player the Falcons hoped they were drafting highly four years ago.
Drake London added a strong game of his own, catching nine passes for 194 yards. Together, the offense put up numbers that matched the Packers’ defense.
“Perhaps the most impressive part of last week’s game was that the Falcons held the Packers to 17 rushing yards.”
That stat shows how dominant the Atlanta front was on the night. The defense allowed just 17 rushing yards to Green Bay, which is a remarkable number against a team known for running the ball.
Shough Struggles Against the Falcons
New Orleans has been close to unbeatable in the fourth quarter. In Week 1, the Saints did almost nothing on offense until the final frame. Once the fourth quarter arrived, they found their rhythm and scored repeatedly, pushing the game into overtime. Then they gave up a touchdown to the Lions, failed on a two-point conversion attempt, and lost.
Week 2 followed a similar pattern. The Saints trailed early against Baltimore, scoring just nine points through three quarters. But they broke through with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Raiders went up 28-27 early in the quarter, and then scored another touchdown to give them the final score of 35-27.
Tyler Shough has been the quarterback throughout this stretch. He has shown flashes of brilliance but has also struggled to find consistency. One theory is that he takes a while to read defenses, then finally breaks through once he gets comfortable.
The Numbers Behind the Pick
The defensive stats are where the pick gets specific. Through three games, the Falcons have the best rushing defense in football, allowing just 47.7 yards on the ground. That number is not entirely impressive, though, because the opponents were not great runners. Atlanta faced the Steelers, Panthers, and Packers, none of whom are known for their rushing attacks.
The Saints have a similar profile. Their rushing defense has been solid, but neither team has faced a truly punishing running attack yet.
What matters more is the passing game. Shough has faced the Falcons twice in his career, throwing for 259 yards and 243 yards in those games. This season, his totals are 410 yards, 252 yards, and 255 yards.
The pick rests on that comparison. Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, and Jordan Love are all better quarterbacks than Shough, and they combine to average just 1.5 more yards per game than Shough’s average. The conclusion: take the under on his passing yards.
Why the Under Makes Sense
The logic is straightforward. Shough has thrown for big numbers against the Falcons in the past, but those games came against a defense that has since tightened up. The Falcons now allow just 263.0 yards per game against the pass, and that number has not been discussed elsewhere in Fox News’s preview.
The comparison to Rodgers, Young, and Love is telling. Those three quarterbacks are all elite, and even they only average slightly more than Shough. That suggests Shough’s numbers are not sustainable against a defense that has tightened up.
The pick is a bet that Shough will not throw for 263 yards tonight. Given his history against Atlanta and the strength of the Falcons’ defense, that seems like a reasonable expectation.
What to Watch Tonight
The game will come down to execution. Atlanta’s offense has shown it can move the ball with Penix back under center. Robinson and London are both capable of big nights, and the running game gives the Falcons a genuine threat on the ground.
New Orleans has to solve its slow-start problem. The Saints need to find a way to score earlier in games, because the fourth-quarter magic has not been enough so far. A quick start could change the complexion of the game entirely.
The pick is the under on Shough’s passing yards, and the reasoning is simple: Shough has thrown for big numbers against the Falcons in the past, but the Falcons have tightened up against the pass. Even Rodgers, Young, and Love only average slightly more than Shough, so there is no reason to expect a huge night from the young quarterback.
Source material: “Falcons vs. Saints Monday Night Football betting preview as both NFC South teams sit at 1-2,” Fox News.
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