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Former Diplomats Assess U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq and Region’s Future

Former diplomats weigh the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, where the crowd cheers freedom but some fear Iran and ISIL's return.

By mitch·4 min read
A crowd waves Iraqi flags in celebration of U.S. forces leaving Baghdad.

U.S. forces have left Iraq, and the crowds in Baghdad marked the moment. Thousands gathered on the streets of the capital today to celebrate the pullout, and Iraq’s prime minister, Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi, framed the withdrawal as a chance for his country to stand on its own.

“The withdrawal is an opportunity,” Al-Zaidi said, describing a “new phase defined by Iraq’s sovereignty.” His words were cautious, but the sentiment was clear: Iraq is done with foreign troops on its soil.

The move was agreed to two years ago under former President Biden and carried out by President Trump. Now it is done, and the question is what comes next.

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The Long Road Out

The U.S. first invaded Iraq in 2003, toppling Saddam Hussein. The first U.S. withdrawal came in 2011, ending the presence of American troops in the country. Three years later, U.S. troops returned to help fight ISIS, the militant group that had seized large parts of the country.

Today’s departure ends a second period of American presence. The Pentagon called the pullout “a milestone that reflects the success of a 12-year campaign that defeated ISIS.”

More than 4,000 U.S. troops and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians died over those decades of fighting.

The Crowd in Baghdad

Thousands gathered on the streets of Baghdad to mark the withdrawal. For many Iraqis, the pullout is a relief after years of war and occupation.

Al-Zaidi’s framing of the moment as a “new phase” suggests he sees the pullout as a step toward full independence. Whether Iraqi forces can actually secure their own country remains an open question.

What the Experts Say

Two former diplomats weighed in on the move, and their views could not be more different.

James Jeffrey served as ambassador to Iraq under President Obama and was the special envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in the first Trump administration. He described the withdrawal as a mission accomplished, calling the defeat of ISIS “spectacularly successful.”

Feisal Istrabadi had a very different take. He served as Iraq’s ambassador to the U.N. after the U.S. deposed Saddam Hussein and is now a professor at Indiana University. He noted that in 2011, when the U.S. withdrew, “a lot of intelligence cooperation ceased” and the result was the rise of ISIL.

“I think it is a strategic defeat for the United States,” Istrabadi said.

The Threat From the North

The warning from Erbil carries weight. Osman Kamusashi, a resident of Erbil, fears the departure of U.S. forces could leave the Kurdistan region exposed to attacks by Iran-backed groups or the resurgence of the Islamic State.

Kamusashi’s concern is practical. Without U.S. bases nearby, the Kurdish region loses a deterrent against Iran-backed groups. The war in Iran has expanded and drawn in neighboring countries, and U.S. bases in the northern Kurdish region have come under attack.

The situation in Kurdistan is tense. The region has relied on U.S. protection for years, and the loss of that protection is a real problem. The risk is not hypothetical: attacks have already hit U.S. positions in the area.

Comparing the Two Views

Perspective View on Withdrawal
James Jeffrey Mission accomplished; ISIS defeat is spectacularly successful
Feisal Istrabadi Strategic defeat; history shows withdrawal leads to ISIL’s rise

The contrast is stark. Jeffrey sees a clean win, while Istrabadi sees a repeat of past mistakes.

What Comes Next

Iraq faces an immediate test. The U.S. withdrawal reduces the military presence, and Iran-backed groups are already active in the region. The Islamic State has not been fully eradicated, and its remnants could regroup without the pressure of a strong coalition force.

The prime minister’s framing of the withdrawal as an opportunity does not settle the dispute. The experts are divided, and the next few months will tell the story.

For now, the flags are down, the troops are gone, and the people of Iraq are left to find out what sovereignty actually means.

Where the paper stands

The paper backs Iraq’s sovereignty and is against any remaining U.S. military presence on Iraqi soil. That position is unchanged by the disagreement among experts, and it is strengthened by the mood of the crowd in Baghdad, which celebrated the departure today.

The paper is against offices and agencies gathering power, whether they call it a mandate or a campaign. The pullout ends a long period of American presence in Iraq, and the people there have made their view known.

The paper wants Iraq to stand on its own, and it wants the United States to respect that choice. The experts disagree on whether the pullout marks a win or a defeat, but the crowd in Baghdad was not debating strategy — it was cheering the end of a presence it wanted gone.

Source material: “Former diplomats assess U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and region's future,” PBS.

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