A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance of developing over the next week, according to the National Weather Service. The system already has a 60% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.
As of Monday, the disturbance remained disorganized, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. It is moving eastward before turning north, traveling past the Texas coast. Southeast Texas is not expected to see heavy rain or strong winds, but the system could bring higher winds and swells as it moves through.
The biggest impact is expected elsewhere. Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle are all in the forecast path as of Monday’s update.
What the NWS Says
The National Weather Service is tracking the disturbance closely. The agency advises residents and visitors to stay up-to-date on the forecast as more details emerge.
The Gulf system remains warm and has the capability to turn into a tropical depression, according to the NWS. That would mark an early stage of a tropical cyclone, with maximum surface winds of 38 mph.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area experiences thunderstorms, creating circular wind flow and sustained wind gusts.
The System’s Path
The disturbance is expected to continue east before turning north. It will travel past the Texas coast and move toward the states listed above.
Houston is not expected to see major impacts from rain or winds. The city may instead experience higher humidity and stronger breezes as the system passes nearby.
What Houston Faces
Houston is expected to see some relief from the summer heat. Temperatures are dipping into the mid-80s as the area transitions into fall weather.
Where the Impact Lands
The NWS expects the strongest effects to hit Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. Those areas should watch for higher winds and swells as the system passes.
Here is the breakdown of the affected regions:
- Louisiana
- Alabama
- Mississippi
- The Florida Panhandle
The forecast gives clear odds, a known path, and no reason to panic. The system is moving east and north.
The Situation So Far
The 70% chance of development over the next week means the system could strengthen, but it could also fizzle out before reaching the coast. The 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours suggests the window for growth is narrowing.
Residents in affected areas should pay attention to local forecasts and warnings. The NWS will provide updates as the system evolves.
For now, the advice is simple: stay informed and prepare for the possibility of wind and swell, especially near the coast.
The Gulf system remains under close watch. The next 48 hours will tell whether it develops further or stays a weak disturbance.
See the a run of 14 images at Houston Public Media.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.