California’s governor’s race just took a sharp turn. A new post-debate poll shows Steve Hilton cutting into Xavier Becerra’s lead, narrowing a gap that had looked locked in.
The survey, conducted Oct. 1–2 by David Wolfson, found Becerra ahead 45.7% to 40.1%. That is a 5.6-point difference, down sharply from an earlier poll that put Becerra up 15 points. The shift reflects a race tightening as voters weigh the two candidates’ records and positions ahead of Election Day.
Nearly one in seven voters — 14.1% — remain undecided. Among them, the lean tilts toward Becerra: 72.5% favor him, while 27.5% favor Hilton.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
Becerra’s support dropped 6.3 points since the earlier poll. Hilton gained 3.1 points, a combined 9.4-point swing in the margin.
The numbers paint a clear picture of a race that has tightened dramatically. The earlier poll had Becerra at 52% to Hilton’s 37%, a 15-point advantage that now sits at just 5.6 points.
The undecideds hold the balance. With nearly one in seven voters still weighing their choice, any candidate who can crack that group stands to gain. The lean among them favors Becerra, but the margin is narrow enough that Hilton could still close the gap if he wins over those wavering voters.
Public Mood on California’s Direction
Californians are not optimistic about the state’s trajectory. A majority say the state is headed in the wrong direction, with 58.8% saying so. Only 28.1% believe California is moving in the right direction, and 13.1% are unsure.
Hilton has made frustration with California’s high costs and Democratic leadership central to his campaign. The pessimism cuts through the political divide, and voters see the state struggling.
The Debate and Its Audience
The debate drew attention, though not everyone tuned in live. About 11.2% watched all or nearly all of the debate on CNN, and 9.5% watched part. Nearly 20% saw clips or highlights online or in the news, and 19.9% followed coverage without watching.
The Personal Attacks
The race has grown increasingly personal, with Hilton accusing Becerra of lying about his immigrant background. Hilton has repeatedly raised the issue.
Hilton wrote on X that unlike Becerra, he knows Becerra’s policies have destroyed the California Dream and that his plans will restore it. He also posted that unlike Becerra, he is an immigrant, that his father was an immigrant, and that his stepfather was too — that his whole family is.
The contrast is stark. Hilton frames himself as the immigrant candidate, while Becerra has defended his own immigrant roots. The question of who gets to claim the immigrant label has become central to how voters understand the two men’s backgrounds.
Favorable Ratings
Becerra holds a thin edge in name recognition, with a favorable rating of 44.1% and an unfavorable of 45.3%. Hilton trails on both counts: 35.5% favorable and 50.7% unfavorable.
The ratings shape how voters process information. Becerra’s slightly positive standing gives him room to build on it, while Hilton’s more negative standing requires overcoming skepticism to win over undecided voters.
What the Poll Shows
The poll’s methodology matters for interpreting the results. Wolfson surveyed 1,020 voters. The margin of error is not stated.
| Poll | Date | Becerra % | Hilton % | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earlier poll | Not specified | 52 | 37 | +15 |
| New post-debate poll | Oct. 1–2 | 45.7 | 40.1 | +5.6 |
The table shows the scale of the shift. Becerra went from a 15-point lead to a narrow 5.6-point edge. The gap closed by 9.4 points, which is a significant movement in a race this close.
The Road to Election Day
The race remains wide open. Becerra holds the lead, but Hilton has shown he can move voters quickly. The undecideds will likely determine the winner, and their lean toward Becerra suggests he enters Election Day with the better position.
The next few weeks will be critical. The final stretch will test which candidate can close the deal with voters who have not yet made up their minds.
The paper’s view is clear: the race has tightened, and the undecideds hold the balance. Becerra enters Election Day with the lead, but Hilton has shown he can move voters quickly. The final stretch will be decisive, and the outcome will hinge on which candidate wins over the undecideds.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs no party and judges this race issue by issue, and is against treating politics as a horse race between two machines that both gather power. The poll shows a dramatic shift, with Hilton cutting into Becerra’s lead by 9.4 points. The race is now a dead heat, with nearly one in seven voters undecided.
That number is the story. With undecideds leaning 72.5% toward Becerra but 27.5% toward Hilton, any candidate who cracks that group wins. The pessimism over California’s direction — 58.8% say the state is headed in the wrong way — fuels the race’s volatility. Hilton has made high costs and Democratic leadership central to his campaign, tapping into a mood that crosses party lines.
The paper’s north star is individual freedom, support for small business, and avoiding concentrations of power. Neither candidate has offered a platform that fully matches that standard. The race is a contest between two machines, each gathering power in its own way. The paper watches the polls, the undecideds, and the rhetoric for signs of where the balance might tip — but it does not pick a side.
Source material: “California governor’s races sees another massive swing as nail-biting new poll released,” the New York Post.
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