Hopper says the cost of flying home for the holidays has hit its peak in ten years, with the conflict in Iran being the driving force behind it. For a round-trip Thanksgiving flight within the United States, the average price sits at $402, which marks an increase of $95 over last year’s figure. As for Christmas travel, the average round-trip fare stands at $452, up $85 from last year.
Airlines are raising prices because the cost of the fuel they burn has risen sharply. The cause is a conflict in the Middle East that has reduced how much oil moves out of the region, cutting global supply of distillates like jet fuel and diesel. To cover those higher costs, airlines have increased fares, added passenger surcharges and cut routes.
The Numbers Behind the Price Jump
According to airline industry analysts, jet fuel usually makes up to 30% of an airline’s operating costs. Before the Iran war started in late February, the global average price was roughly $99 per barrel, based on data from the International Air Transport Association.
The cost climbed steeply. It reached its highest point at $209 in April and touched $195 a barrel in mid-September, according to IATA, which cited data from S&P Global Energy Platts. The price of Brent crude, the global oil standard, rose above $101 a barrel on Monday before dropping back to $97.83 on news of possible talks between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A barrel of Brent traded for around $72 before the conflict began.
The rise in jet fuel prices is what forced Hopper to raise its fares, according to Hayley Berg, an economist at the company who spoke with CBS News. Berg pointed to a doubling in those costs, which she described as the driver behind the price hikes. “Months of elevated jet fuel costs due to the conflict in Iran have contributed to Thanksgiving and Christmas airfares reaching 10-year highs.”
Why the Prices Have to Go Up
Since the war began, the price of jet fuel has nearly doubled, and it makes up a large share of what airlines spend. There is no way for airlines to absorb that increase without passing some of it along to passengers.
Oil flows from the Middle East have climbed and now top 75% of pre-war volumes, according to Gregory Brew, an energy analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Still, there is no sign the pressure on crude prices will ease soon.
Berg anticipates that fares will rise following Halloween, and she recommends securing costs for both Thanksgiving and Christmas journeys before the holiday season draws near.
How Travelers Can Save Money
Moving travel plans away from peak days is the simplest way to save money, though it takes some scheduling ahead. The guidance itself is plain and easy to follow.
This year, Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26, and Berg advises flying out on Monday or Tuesday before the holiday instead of Wednesday, when a large number of people are expected to crowd the nation’s airports. She also suggests coming back on any day except Sunday, Nov. 29.
She said “You can travel on Black Friday, Saturday morning, Monday or Tuesday, but you’ll pay $250 more per round-trip ticket to fly on Sunday,”.
The guidance holds true for the holiday season. Do not travel on Dec. 18, Dec. 19, Dec. 20, or on Dec. 27, which falls on the Sunday after Christmas Day.
Consider being open about where you go instead of locking yourself into one warm destination. Plenty of travelers head home for the holidays, but those seeking warmth can cut costs by comparing several places that offer a comparable experience.
Round-trip flight tickets within the United States have hit their highest level in a decade, with jet fuel prices now sitting 31% higher than they were in the same period last year.
What This Means for Holiday Travel
Hopper’s message leaves no room for doubt — passengers should prepare for higher fares. The conflict with Iran has disrupted oil supplies, and those costs are now appearing on airfare receipts.
The pressure on crude prices may not ease after the holiday season, according to Brew’s warning that they could take longer to fall.
Consumers who travel can cut costs by staying flexible with their plans. Reserving a spot well before a trip starts, choosing dates outside of high season, and thinking about going somewhere else all open up chances to pay less.
This year’s holiday prices have been affected by the fighting in Iran.
The cost of a round trip on Thanksgiving is $402, which marks an increase of $95 over last year. The Christmas round trip costs $452, a rise of $85. Before the war, jet fuel was priced at $99 per barrel, while its peak reached $209 in April. Mid-September, jet fuel sat at $195 per barrel. Brent crude hit a high of $101, but has since settled to $97.83.
Key Facts
– Thanksgiving round trip: $402, up $95 from last year
– Christmas round trip: $452, up $85 from last year
– Jet fuel before the war: $99 per barrel
– Jet fuel peak: $209 in April
– Mid-September jet fuel: $195 per barrel
– Brent crude high: $101, now $97.83
How to Save on Holiday Flights
1. Book before Halloween
2. Fly on Monday or Tuesday, avoid Wednesday
3. Return on Black Friday or Saturday, avoid Sunday
4. Compare destinations and consider warmer locations
5. Avoid peak days around Christmas (Dec. 18-20, Dec. 27)
The guidance is straightforward, though putting it into practice demands work. The conflict with Iran has driven up costs for holiday trips.
See the video the story is built around at CBS News.
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