A Polish author has spent recent weeks studying the map and concluding that some of the globe’s most severe issues are linked by where they sit, not chance. The Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab, and the conflict in Ukraine all share a single result: they drive up the cost of shipping, and when shipping costs rise, so does the price of nearly everything else.
The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed
Since late February, Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed off, deploying drones, missiles, mines and small boats to obstruct tanker traffic. The International Energy Agency says it is the biggest supply disruption the oil market has ever experienced. More than 90 percent of tanker traffic through the strait has dropped.
Closure spreads out across three paths at once: into fuel, into food, and into the heat needed for this winter. The roundabout path through the Gulf passes by the Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi forces took hold of a key Yemeni port this month.
The shipping fund tied to chartering a crude tanker climbed over 600 percent during the first two months of the conflict and had gained well over 2,300 percent for the year by early September. Daily hire charges for certain supertankers jumped from below $100,000 before the fighting broke out to a high of roughly $860,000 on 10 September.
| Fund | Gain in 2026 to early September |
|---|---|
| Shipping stocks | +68% |
| Tanker stocks | +120% |
| Tanker freight ETF | +2,300% |
The War Next Door
This year, Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries at least 70 times, which works out to roughly once every four days according to the IEA’s count, pushing Russia’, and that has pushed the country’s refining output to a two-decade low. More than half of its six largest diesel plants cut production or shut down entirely this month, while Moscow has also limited fuel exports.
Diesel fuel in the US reached $6 a gallon for the first time on 10 September. The president of the United States has now called Kyiv to request that it cease striking diesel targets.
France Runs Out Of Fuel
In mid-September, a post went viral claiming that France was running short of fuel. The actual numbers tell a different story, and they’re worth looking at closely. On 20 September, 15 percent of service stations had no petrol or diesel left, which was an increase of 11 percentage points from two days before. Grand Est was the hardest hit, with 20 percent of its stations running dry.
There is no sign of a supply shortfall. Around nine in ten of the dry filling stations are run by TotalEnergies, which has set a cap on petrol at €1.99 a litre, and motorists leaving behind record prices elsewhere drained their tanks more quickly than tanker trucks could top them up again. The official tally also underestimates the number of stations affected: a site appears on the list only if it is out of every grade of petrol or out of diesel altogether.
A price cap intended as protection in a system without room to give gave a price shock nowhere to go, leaving the pumps empty.
Fertiliser And The Harvest
Up to 30 percent of all internationally traded fertiliser passes through the strait at any given time. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that a shortage could reduce crop yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026, continuing into 2027.
There is a delay in the consequences. Once fertiliser fails to arrive on time, there is no way to make up for the lost yield. Since people continue to consume grain from crops planted before the disruption, the system appears to be functioning normally until the reduced harvests actually show up.
The year 2025 marked a grim milestone for the Global Report on Food Crises, which recorded its first-ever instance of two confirmed famines occurring simultaneously — one in Gaza and another in Sudan. The funding picture for food assistance was equally dire: it dropped an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025.
Up to 45 million additional people could become acutely food insecure, according to the World Food Programme’s estimate, should oil prices remain at their current elevated levels.
Europe’s Potato Belt Tells The Story
Across the continent last year there was an oversupply, with Polish growers lifting roughly 7 million tonnes, 18 percent above the previous year’s total. By spring, farmers were selling below cost. In response, growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less. But then five heatwaves and a drought hit.
One of the smallest harvests in a decade is expected by their growers’ organisation, with production down 25, while in Belgium the price of potatoes for processing jumped from €10 to €150 a tonne in just a few days.
The cost of grain has also risen. Milling wheat on the Paris exchange has climbed from €191 a tonne in January to about €245, a jump of 28 percent, while maize has increased by 36 percent. In Poland, wheat at purchase points has moved from 778 zloty a tonne to about 900, and maize has risen from 748 to over 930. As early as May, traders were already pointing to frost and drought here, drought in France and America, and record energy prices.
The writer’s final point is plain: the world is not ending, yet for thirty years we traded buffers for dependencies. A supplier proved cheaper than a stockpile, and a guarantee proved cheaper than an army. Whenever a dependency failed, we did not rebuild the buffer; instead, we found another dependency. Each swap held together for as long as the thing at the other end remained standing.
A number of these items were put to the test at once this year. A truce that kept prices in check during early summer gave way by early September, when Brent crude stood close to $97 a barrel, having risen 19 percent within a month. Midway through the month it sat around $105, and on 24 September it reached as high as $108.
Iran delivered a written road map to Washington on 22 September, proposing a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait, and an end to the American naval blockade. The plan was turned down, and according to one account, the president intends to resume bombing after the November midterm elections.
The writer’s own country borders Europe’s largest war since 1945, heats itself with coal and imported gas, and arms itself on borrowed money. From here the news does not arrive as separate stories.
Key facts:
- Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down by more than 90 percent
- Brent crude touched $108 on 24 September
- Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September
- 70 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries this year
- US diesel reached $6 a gallon on 10 September
- French petrol capped at €1.99 a litre
- Wheat up 28 percent on the Paris exchange, maize up 36 percent
- Potatoes in Belgium rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days
What the writer describes is a personal account that holds together, with the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab, the Ukraine war, French fuel shortages and the global harvest failures forming a single chain of cause and effect. This is his perspective, and it makes sense, yet it depends on the idea that every failure of dependence was a deliberate decision rather than an unexpected turn.
It is still unknown whether the world will manage to restore its reserves or instead continue relying on outside help. At the moment, the author from Poland is observing the strait, the port and the harvest, and he has little hope for what the coming winter may bring.
Source material: “September 2026: The world today, as seen by one Polish guy,” tomwojcik.com.
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