Democrats want a blue wave. New Hampshire is Exhibit A for why that may not happen.
Five weeks before Election Day, the party’s enthusiasm machine is running at full speed. Candidates are campaigning in Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, eyeing contests in Kansas and Mississippi. Many Democratic leaders predict the House majority is all but theirs, and they also predict the Senate majority, almost unthinkable a year ago, is nearly in reach.
But the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party is not convinced. Ray Buckley says national Democratic leaders “have consistently been overly optimistic.” He is particularly worried about his state’s Senate contest, where Republicans are investing far more resources than Democrats.
“There is reason for concern,” Buckley said.
Republican Spending Advantage
Republicans are spending $1.63 billion on campaign advertising between Sept. 1 and Election Day, according to AdImpact data as of Monday. That compares to $1.19 billion for Democrats. Republicans are outspending Democrats by nearly 40% nationwide.
The gap is largest in the states Democrats hope to flip. In Texas, Republicans spend $262.4 million versus $76.9 million for Democrats. In Ohio, Republicans spend $258.8 million versus $160.4 million. In Florida, Republicans spend $99.3 million versus $47.9 million. Even in New Hampshire, the swing state that could decide control of the Senate, Republicans spend $41.2 million versus $35.4 million.
Rep. Chris Pappas acknowledged the Republican spending advantage, saying “The majority won’t be flipped if we don’t hold this seat in New Hampshire, so it’s really critical to the overall map.”
Branding Problem
The polling data suggests Democrats have a branding problem as serious as their funding one. A Fox News poll found 55% of voters have a “strongly” or “somewhat” unfavorable view of the Democrats. A similar share, 58%, say the same about the Republican Party. About 62% of voters have a negative view of Trump. About half of registered voters say the Democratic Party is “too far to the left,” per a New York Times/Siena poll.
Pollster John Anzalone offered a blunt assessment of the political moment. “It’s nothing we’re doing. We’re winning because they’re losing,” he said. “And they’re losing dramatically with every action the president has taken.”
Anzalone also framed the national contest as a personal one. “America is the battleground state,” he said.
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., made a similar argument about the party’s position. “We’ve made a much better case than them, and that’s why it looks like we’re going to win a bunch of House seats and probably win back the Senate,” he said. “Right now, I think the Republican brand is the one that’s damaged.”
Buckley’s Worry
Buckley’s concern is specific. He points to the Senate race in his state, where Republicans are pouring resources into a contest Democrats believe they can win. His concern is that national Democrats will treat New Hampshire as a unicorn state — a place that is simply not possible to win.
“We don’t want to let this one slip away because they were sending resources to some other unicorns — some other state that’s just not possible,” Buckley said.
State-by-State Spending
Here is how the spending breaks down across the key battlegrounds:
- Texas: Republicans $262.4 million, Democrats $76.9 million
- Ohio: Republicans $258.8 million, Democrats $160.4 million
- Florida: Republicans $99.3 million, Democrats $47.9 million
- New Hampshire: Republicans $41.2 million, Democrats $35.4 million
The pattern is consistent. In every state, Republicans are spending more. The question is whether that spending advantage translates into votes.
Public Mood on Both Sides
The polling data shows a split public mood that cuts across party lines. Voters dislike both parties in roughly equal measure, and Trump remains unpopular despite his party’s spending.
The New York Times/Siena poll finding that half of registered voters say the Democratic Party is “too far to the left” is notable. It suggests the party’s base enthusiasm may not translate into broader voter appeal. Democrats need to hold their base while expanding it, and the polling suggests they are failing on the second part.
Kelly’s framing of the Senate race captures the strategic stakes. The party believes it has made a stronger case than Republicans, but the spending numbers tell a different story.
What Comes Next
The coming weeks will show whether the wave materializes or whether New Hampshire becomes the state that broke it. Democrats are confident about the House and hopeful about the Senate. National leaders predict a wave, but the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party is worried.
The spending gap is real. The polling data is mixed. The election is five weeks away.
The key question is whether Democrats can hold the line in New Hampshire. The spending data suggests they are at a disadvantage, but the polling data shows Republicans have their own problems. The president’s low standing could work in Democrats’ favor.
For now, the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party is sounding the alarm. He does not want his state to become a unicorn state — a place that is simply not possible to win. He wants his party to treat New Hampshire as competitive, and he wants the resources to fight.
Whether that happens is the unknown in a wave Democrats are predicting but a chairman is worried about.
Key Numbers
– Republicans: $1.63 billion spent on ads between Sept. 1 and Election Day
– Democrats: $1.19 billion spent on ads between Sept. 1 and Election Day
– Texas: Republicans $262.4 million, Democrats $76.9 million
– Ohio: Republicans $258.8 million, Democrats $160.4 million
– Florida: Republicans $99.3 million, Democrats $47.9 million
– New Hampshire: Republicans $41.2 million, Democrats $35.4 million
– Fox News poll: 55% of voters have a “strongly” or “somewhat” unfavorable view of the Democrats
– New York Times/Siena poll: About half of registered voters say the Democratic Party is “too far to the left”
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither side’s predictions about the election outcome and backs instead a focus on candidates’ stands on individual freedom, small business, and avoiding concentrations of power, judging each issue by that standard.
What matters here is not the size of the purse or the party’s standing with the public, but whether candidates are championing those principles. The spending gap is real and the polling data mixed, but the paper judges candidates on their record and their stand, not on who spends more or which party the public likes less.
Readers should keep an eye on whether candidates actually champion individual freedom, support small business, and avoid concentrations of power, rather than on spending totals or party popularity. The election is five weeks away, and the next few weeks will show whether the chairman’s worry or the national leaders’ confidence holds up.
Source material: “Democrats want a blue wave. New Hampshire is Exhibit A for why that may not happen,” PBS.
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