Kinzer Is Being Investigated by the CFTC Over Kalshi Bets Placed on His Own Pardon

Politico reports that the CFTC is investigating whether Adam Kinzinger traded on his own pardon through Kalshi, the prediction market platform. The agency is examining trades made by a Kalshi account tied to Kinzinger in December 2024 and January 2025, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Politico reports Kinzinger revealed he wagered on two separate deals. One was tied to him receiving a personal pardon. The second was centered on whether President Biden would grant preemptive pardons prior to leaving office. The amounts involved were modest. Kinzinger shared screenshots showing his earnings from the trades stood at $823. He said he had placed roughly 25 such wagers at the time, with most of them losing money.

Kinzinger’s Account of the Trades

Kinzinger denies wrongdoing. He noted he had been out of office for two years when he placed the bets, was neither a congressman nor a candidate, and had “no inside information.” He said he had read Kalshi’s rules beforehand and understood them to prohibit trading where a user works for the relevant agency, can influence the outcome, or holds non-public information about it.

He said he had never spoken to anyone about the pardons. The CFTC bars the use of material nonpublic information on the markets it oversees. Kalshi bars users from placing wagers on contracts where they are direct participants.

Politico was unable to reach either the agency or Kalshi for comment, and Kinzinger said he has not heard from either side regarding the probe.

The Preemptive Pardons

In his final hours in January 2025, Biden issued preemptive pardons that covered Kinzinger and other members of the House select committee that investigated the January 6 attack on the Capitol.

Shortly after Biden signed the pardons, Donald Trump, who was inaugurated at that point, had called for the committee’s members to be jailed.

A Pattern at Kalshi

Several congressional candidates have had their accounts suspended by Kalshi, and the pattern involves similar bets. The platform froze the accounts of three such candidates in April after they placed wagers on their own races. More recently, Kalshi also took action against former Representative George Santos, freezing his account and referring him to both the CFTC and the Justice Department over trades he made against his own attendance at the State of the Union address, even as he publicly declared he would attend. Santos was then banned for life in late August.

Among those who have criticized the platform, Kinzinger stands out. He objected to the conduct of individual members of Congress on Substack last November, citing contracts for market activity that covered which senator would first visit Syria and how each member would vote on releasing the Epstein files.

He referred to these markets as “a corruption time bomb,” asserting that “a platform that lets insiders (and legislators) gamble on their own behavior is a threat to democracy.”.

Now he expresses broad satisfaction with how Kalshi’s screening has progressed.

The CFTC’s Track Record

The CFTC has been scrutinizing prediction markets since at least last year. A month earlier, the agency fined a former White House teleprompter operator $172,000 over trades on presidential mention markets.

Last week, staff cautioned exchanges that any contracts tied to the words or conduct of a specific person should be treated as potentially subject to manipulation.

Politico reports that Trump has publicly weighed in on the pardons. In a March 2025 Truth Social post, he described the pardons as “void”, adding that the recipients were “subject to investigation at the highest level.”. When asked about it, The White House declined to comment.

The Case Against Kinzinger

The prohibition on material nonpublic information at the CFTC’s investigation rests on one question: did Kinzinger trade with material nonpublic information? The agency’ covers a wide scope.

Kinzinger’s reading of Kalshi’s rules is narrower. He interpreted them as barring only those who work for the relevant agency or hold inside information. That is his account of his own reading. Kalshi itself has not confirmed that interpretation.

The willingness of the CFTC to take action when it discovers violations is on display through its examination of prediction markets.

What Happens Next

No charges have yet been filed against Kinzinger. The CFTC’s decision to investigate indicates that the agency is treating the matter seriously, even though the probe is still underway.

Kinzinger’s position is defensible on its own terms. He says he was out of office, had no inside information, and read Kalshi’s rules carefully. He even says he lost money on most of his trades.

The pattern at Kalshi raises concern. The platform has banned users for breaking its own rules, with Santos among those banned for life. Kinzinger’s own criticism of Kalshi from last November makes his position harder to reconcile.

It appears that the CFTC’s investigation into Kinzinger will eventually come to a conclusion. The outcome could either clear him of any wrong doing or reveal evidence against him. At present, though, the case serves as a reminder that prediction markets are bound by actual regulations, and that those who participate in them must abide by them.

Source material: “CFTC Investigating Adam Kinzinger Over Kalshi Bets on His Own Pardon: Report,” Decrypt.

Adam Kinzinger · CFTC · Kalshi · pardon bets · prediction markets