Friday night finds Liberty and Delaware meeting at Delaware Stadium in Newark, Del., for a clash between two teams with opposite momentum. The Flames are seeking to extend their winning run, while the Blue Hens are aiming to prevent a second defeat in as many contests. The contest gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, and the SportsLine Projection Model has made its selections available — including a confident pick on the Over.
The Road Favorites
The Flames have won their last three games, and they added to that run with a 34-17 victory over Coastal Carolina in Week 4, which moved their record to 3-1. Liberty is also playing well away from home, standing 1-1 in road contests this season. Delaware suffered a setback in its Week 4 game, losing 42-3 at Virginia and falling to 2-2 overall.
The Blue Hens finished 7-6 overall in 2025, but they are 2-0 at home this season. Last year’s meeting went the Flames’ way, with Liberty winning 59-30.
The Over/Under for Liberty’s game sits at 51.5, and the model has run 10,000 simulations to arrive at its projection. Liberty comes in as the road favorite by 6.5 points, and the model is leaning Over.
Quarterback Numbers
The Liberty offense runs through its quarterback, Deshawn Purdie, who sits behind center and has thrown 58.8% of his passes for 779 yards and seven touchdowns without a single interception across the first four weeks. Kam Davis, a junior running back, and Peyton Jones, a senior running back, handle the rushing workload.
The two running backs on the Flames roster split the carries evenly, with Davis getting 47 attempts for 310 yards at an average of 6.6, including one touchdown, while Jones has handled 45 attempts for 202 yards at an average of 4.5. Each back provides a distinct threat in the ground attack.
On the other side, Delaware’s Nick Minicucci directs the offense. He has completed 57.3% of his passes for 838 yards and five touchdowns with three picks. His yardage total is higher than Purdie’s despite the Flames’ extra game, which suggests Delaware has had more chances to throw.
The Over Runs Long
Liberty’s recent games have seen the Over land repeatedly, with the trend continuing into the current stretch of contests. In the last meeting against Delaware, the Over came in, and it has kept hitting since then. Seven of the last 10 Liberty games have gone Over, a run that includes each of the last two matches. The road games have shown a similar pattern, with the Over landing in three of Liberty’s last four away contests.
SportsLine’s model projects 57 points in this game, which puts the Over at nearly 70% value based on those simulations. The model’s record on college football picks carries some weight — it enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated selections at betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
Spread Pick and Model Track Record
In its simulations, the model finds that one side of the spread lands with success more than 80% of the time. That particular pick is available exclusively at SportsLine.
The model’s broader college football record is solid. It is on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks, which means followers have seen strong returns across the sport.
| Team | Record | Home/Away | Key Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 3-1 | Road | Deshawn Purdie |
| Delaware | 2-2 | Home | Nick Minicucci |
What the Model Actually Says
Here is what the model has actually published:
- The Over hits in 7 of the last 10 Liberty games, including each of the last two.
- The Over hits in 3 of Liberty’s last 4 road games.
- The model projects 57 points, making the Over nearly 70% value.
- One side of the spread hits over 80% of simulations.
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The model’s picks are available at SportsLine, but the model’s record is the draw. A 32-24 run on college football picks is a strong record, and the nearly $600 return on $100 players is a figure that catches the eye. The model’s projections on totals and spreads are the content, and the model’s record is the reason anyone pays attention. The model’s record on top-rated selections at betting sites carries weight, and the nearly $600 return on $100 players is a figure that catches the eye. The model’s projections on totals and spreads are the content, and the model’s record is the reason anyone pays attention.
Source material: “Liberty vs. Delaware prediction, odds: Week 5 college football Friday picks by proven model,” CBS Sports.
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