The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of registered voters shows a clear shift against the Party of Trump. Democrats now hold a 53-41 advantage over Republicans in who voters would pick to represent them in Congress, and the reasons behind that number point to one central force: Donald Trump himself.
The poll found that voters believe Democrats would handle the economy, foreign policy, gas prices, and even immigration better than Republicans. That last point matters because immigration has long been one of the Party’s strongest policy areas. The numbers also show that the president’s net approval rating is twice as bad as it was in 2018, when there was backlash to his first term. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Trump is higher than any point in his entire time in office.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
The poll’s margin is not small. Democrats hold a 53-41 advantage over Republicans with registered voters in who they’d pick for Congress. One striking detail is how often voters cite Trump as the reason they are choosing a candidate. Eighty percent of Democrats and 45 percent of voters overall say their main reason is wanting to vote against Trump, compared to a quarter citing Trump as their reason.
The poll also found that more people want to vote for candidates with new ideas and change over experience and a proven record. That suggests a public tired of the usual faces and looking for fresh voices, regardless of party label.
What Republicans Are Doing About It
Republicans are not sitting still. Candidates have scrubbed any mention of Trump from their campaign websites, and many skipped the Republican midterm convention. That move signals a desire to distance themselves from the president’s unpopular image.
Republican Senate nominees in Iowa and Michigan have reversed their positions and come out against the war in Iran. They are calling for suspension of gas taxes to combat rising prices. These reversals show a willingness to abandon past stances in order to address voter concerns.
Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign ad telling President Trump that “some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far.” She represents a district where Trump won by more than 14 points in 2024. The ad reflects the tension between loyalty to the brand and the need to win local races.
Trump-aligned super PACs are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into ads for Republican nominees in key House and Senate races. The money is there, but the question is whether it can overcome the anti-Trump sentiment driving the polls.
Why Voters Are Moving Against the Party
The poll shows that voters believe Democrats would handle the economy, foreign policy, gas prices, and immigration better than Republicans. That belief cuts across multiple policy areas, which makes it harder for Republicans to target a single issue.
Here is how the comparison breaks down:
| Policy Area | What Voters Believe |
|---|---|
| Economy | Democrats would handle it better |
| Foreign policy | Democrats would handle it better |
| Gas prices | Democrats would handle it better |
| Immigration | Democrats would handle it better |
The fact that Democrats are seen as stronger on immigration is particularly notable. Immigration has been one of the Party’s signature issues, and the fact that voters now see Democrats as better on it suggests a fundamental shift in how the issue is perceived.
What the Midterms Look Like Now
Competitive races are happening in traditionally red areas for the House and Senate. That means the districts that have reliably sent Republicans to Washington are now contested ground. The poll results suggest those races could go either way depending on how the national mood holds through November.
In primaries this year, there was an explosion of people voting in Democratic primaries across the country. The polling data points to a few clear trends:
- Anti-Trump sentiment is the main driver of the Democratic advantage.
- Republicans are distancing themselves from the president.
- Democrats are seen as stronger across multiple policy areas.
- Turnout in Democratic primaries has surged.
These four factors combined paint a picture of a national contest where Republicans are playing defense while Democrats play offense.
The Race Ahead
The midterms are still months away, and polls can shift. But the current momentum favors Democrats. The president’s approval ratings remain historically low, and the midterm wave of primary participation suggests voters are engaged and willing to reject the status quo.
The question now is whether that engagement holds through Election Day. The poll’s findings on voter motivation suggest it will. Eighty percent of Democrats and 45 percent of voters overall cited voting against Trump as their reason, and that kind of motivated base rarely stays home.
Republicans have the resources to fight back. The super PAC money is there, and the candidates have shown they can pivot on hot-button issues like the war in Iran. But the fundamental problem remains: the president’s popularity is a drag on the party, and no amount of messaging can fully overcome that.
What This Means for November
The polling data suggests Democrats are well positioned to hold onto their current edge. The 53-41 advantage is substantial, and the reasons behind it are deeply rooted in the president’s unpopularity.
The race ahead will be about execution. Democrats need to turn out their base, Republicans need to mobilize their own, and the outcome will depend on which side performs better on the ground.
The path forward for Republicans looks like this:
- Continue scrubbing Trump from campaign materials and messaging.
- Focus on local issues rather than national ones.
- Run candidates who can distance themselves from the president’s unpopular positions.
- Hope the super PAC money buys enough favorable coverage to offset the anti-Trump sentiment.
Democrats face a simpler task: keep running against the president and his record. The polling data suggests that message is resonating.
The poll’s findings offer a snapshot of where the race stands now, but the final result depends on turnout, execution, and the unpredictable nature of elections themselves.
The president’s own party is scrambling to distance itself from him. Whether that scramble is enough to save the midterms remains to be seen.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the voters’ judgment that the economy, foreign policy, gas prices, and immigration all matter more than party loyalty, and is against any office or party gathering power at the expense of individual freedom. Trump’s approval rating is twice as bad as it was in 2018, and the share of voters who strongly disapprove of him is higher than any point in his entire time in office.
That unpopularity is the main driver of the Democratic advantage, and it is showing up across every policy area voters care about. The poll finds voters believe Democrats would handle the economy, foreign policy, gas prices, and immigration better than Republicans, even though immigration has long been one of the Party’s strongest policy areas. The paper supports the voters who have moved against Trump and the party he controls, and it opposes any office or party gathering power at the expense of individual freedom.
The paper would want to see candidates focus on local issues rather than national ones, run without the president’s name attached, and distance themselves from his unpopular positions. It would also want voters to turn out and reject the status quo, as the poll’s findings on voter motivation suggest they will. The race ahead depends on execution, turnout, and the unpredictable nature of elections themselves.
Source material: “Results are in from the newest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll,” NPR.
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