Latino voters are moving back toward the Democratic Party ahead of the midterms, according to a new poll. The survey found that 69% of Latino voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance, while just 27% approve.
The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters across the United States from Sept. 21-28. It was conducted via phone interviews and online surveys via text message, with a margin of error of 3.5%.
Key Numbers From the Poll
The poll shows broad Latino unhappiness with Trump’s handling of several key issues. Sixty-six percent of Latino voters say Trump’s deportation policies have gone too far. Seventy-five percent say he has mishandled the economy and the cost of living.
On the political balance, 59% of Latino voters want Democrats to control Congress, compared to 35% who want Republicans to hold the chamber. That is a significant change from 2016 and 2018, when Latino support for a GOP Congress sat at 21% and 26%, respectively.
Trump himself addressed the polling data Saturday night at a rally in Dayton, Ohio. He dismissed the numbers as flawed. “With you at my side, we have always prevailed and prevailed by a lot,” he said, arguing that polls fail to account for his campaigning influence.
The Economy as the Central Driver
The poll points to the economy as the central driver of Latino discontent. Seventy-five percent of Latino voters say Trump has mishandled the cost of living, a figure that dwarfs approval on any other issue tested.
The 69% disapproval rating is particularly notable because it comes from a group that historically leaned Republican on immigration issues. The poll suggests that broader economic anxiety has overtaken concerns about immigration.
“With you at my side, we have always prevailed and prevailed by a lot.”
That quote captures Trump’s combative response to the poll’s findings. He framed the numbers as a matter of perspective, arguing that his supporters are energized despite the data.
What the Midterms Look Like Now
Democrats are projected to win 215 seats, while Republicans hold 201. To reach a majority, Democrats need three more wins out of 19 toss-up races. Republicans need at least 17 of those same 19 races to flip control.
The Latino vote is one of the clearest battlegrounds. Their movement toward the Democrats narrows the path for Republicans.
The Historical Context
Latino voters have not always leaned Democratic. In 2016, Latino support for a GOP Congress sat at 21%. In 2018, that number was 26%.
The 12-point lead Democrats held among Latino voters going into the 2024 election remains a reference point. The new poll suggests the gap has widened, with Democrats holding a stronger advantage today than they did four years ago.
Why This Matters for Both Sides
The poll’s findings are not just academic. They affect the balance of power in Washington. Here is how the math breaks down:
- Democrats need three more wins out of 19 toss-up races to reach 218 seats and a House majority.
- Republicans need at least 17 of those same 19 races to flip control.
- Latino voters are leaning toward Democrats by a wide margin, according to the poll.
- Trump’s dismissal of the poll numbers means the fight is not over.
The stakes are high for both parties. Democrats see a path to expand their majorities. Republicans see a path to stop them. The Latino vote is one of the clearest battlegrounds.
The Road to Election Day
The poll was taken in September, and the midterms are still weeks away. Plenty can change between now and Nov. 4. Campaign momentum, debates, and unexpected events could shift voter behavior.
But the direction is clear. Latino voters are moving back toward the Democrats, and the president’s own words suggest he knows it. His campaign-style response — dismissing the poll as flawed — is a sign that he sees the numbers for what they are.
The question now is whether Republicans can close the gap in the final stretch. The poll suggests they face an uphill battle.
The midterms will settle this fight. Until then, the numbers speak for themselves.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither side and instead supports the principles of individual freedom, small business, and avoiding concentrations of power, including those gathered through elections treated as a horse race between two machines. The poll’s findings on Latino voters show a clear trend toward the Democratic Party, but the paper does not endorse that party or its candidates. It judges candidates issue by issue against its north star.
The paper would want the national conversation to focus on individual freedom, small business, and avoiding concentrations of power, rather than on which machine holds the upper hand. It would also want voters to look past party labels and consider each candidate’s record and platform on those principles.
The paper’s position is consistent with its long-standing approach to elections: judge candidates on their own merits, not on which party they belong to.
Source material: “Latino voters swing back to Democrats ahead of midterm elections: poll,” Fox News.
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