California Governor Gavin Newsom has a problem. A new poll shows his approval rating at 45%, with 46% of voters saying he has been doing a bad job. The survey, conducted Sept. 21 to 24 among 625 registered California voters, finds deep splits by region, race, and party — and those splits could make his White House hopes harder to win.
The poll results are not encouraging for a man running for president. But they are telling about the state he governs and the country he would lead.
Approval Numbers at a Glance
The poll’s core finding is a dead heat: 45% approve, 46% disapprove. That narrow gap hides a wide gulf between groups. About 93% of Republicans said he has been doing a bad job. A majority of Independents, 56%, agreed. In Northern California, excluding Sacramento and the Bay Area, 28% approved and 60% disapproved.
Political consultant Matt Rexroad framed the problem as regional and communicative. “This does not impact his Presidential campaign directly, but it does indicate that he does not know how to communicate with rural voters,” he said.
Rexroad went further. He argued that voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — early primary states — won’t be impressed with a politician from California, San Francisco, and now living in Marin County. He pointed to a Republican Governors Association ad tying a Democratic candidate in Kansas to California as an example of the state’s polarizing reputation.
“This does not impact his Presidential campaign directly, but it does indicate that he does not know how to communicate with rural voters.”
The poll also found that the approval split mirrors President Donald Trump’s ratings. Among surveyed California Democrats, 66% would be inclined to vote for Newsom as the Democratic presidential nominee, versus 15% who wouldn’t.
Who Approves and Who Disapproves
The approval split follows a familiar pattern. “Democrats mostly support Newsom, and Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed,” Morris Levy said.
But even within the party, some Democrats are lukewarm or dissatisfied with his performance. The poll found that the majority of men disapproved while the majority of women approved. The majority of white Californians disapproved but Hispanics and Asians approved.
The breakdown is simple. Democrats mostly support him, and Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed. That’s the whole story in one sentence.
Early Primary Visits
Newsom has visited early primary states like Michigan and South Carolina. Those visits matter because the first contests shape the narrative for candidates hoping to build momentum. A governor from California, San Francisco, and now living in Marin County faces a distinct challenge in places where the state’s reputation is already set.
Rexroad’s point about rural voters is worth unpacking. The poll shows 28% approval in Northern California, excluding Sacramento and the Bay Area. That’s a thin margin in a region where the governor’s influence is supposed to be strongest. If he can’t win over rural voters in his own state, he may struggle to win them over nationally.
The communication gap is real. Newsom has spent years governing a coastal metropolis, and his style reflects that. Rural voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina speak a different political language. The poll suggests he hasn’t learned to speak it yet.
Gender and Race Splits
The poll found that the majority of men disapproved while the majority of women approved. The majority of white Californians disapproved but Hispanics and Asians approved. These splits are not new, but they matter for a national campaign.
A candidate who loses the male vote and the white vote while winning the female vote and the minority vote faces a tough road. The Democratic base is diverse, but it is also fractured. Newsom has to hold his existing supporters while expanding his coalition, and the poll suggests he is failing to expand beyond it.
The approval split mirrors President Donald Trump’s ratings. That is a striking comparison.
The Kansas Ad Example
Rexroad pointed to a Republican Governors Association ad tying a Democratic candidate in Kansas to California as an example of the state’s polarizing reputation. The ad reinforces existing biases. A candidate from California is automatically suspect in many eyes, and the ad simply ties him to that suspicion.
Newsom has to fight that perception. He has to convince voters that he understands their concerns, even if he doesn’t share their zip code. The poll suggests he is not doing that effectively. The approval gap between rural and urban voters, between white and minority voters, and between men and women is too wide to ignore.
The ad is a warning. It shows how quickly a candidate’s brand can be damaged by association.
Party Numbers and the Billionaire Tax
About 74% of Democrats approved of Newsom’s job. Morris Levy said that number may not be high enough for a national campaign. The poll found the majority of men disapproved while the majority of women approved. The majority of white Californians disapproved but Hispanics and Asians approved.
Levy’s warning is worth noting. A candidate can win the primary with strong support from his own party, but that support has to be broad and deep. A candidate who wins 74% of Democrats but loses independents and Republicans is a weak candidate.
The poll found that a majority of Independents agreed Newsom is underperforming. That is a significant loss for a governor who needs to appeal to swing voters.
Key Poll Figures
- Poll conducted Sept. 21 to 24 with 625 registered California voters
- 45% approve, 46% disapprove
- About 93% of Republicans said he has been doing a bad job
- A majority of Independents (56%) agreed Newsom is underperforming
- In Northern California, excluding Sacramento and the Bay Area: 28% approved, 60% disapproved
- Among surveyed California Democrats: 66% would be inclined to vote for Newsom as the Democratic presidential nominee, 15% wouldn’t
- About 74% of Democrats approved of Newsom’s job
What Comes Next
Newsom has visited early primary states like Michigan and South Carolina. He supports a national billionaire tax after long opposing his state’s proposed measure. The Post reached out to Newsom’s office for comment.
The governor’s path forward is not easy. He has to improve his standing with rural voters, independents, and Republicans without alienating his base. That is a difficult balance to strike.
The poll shows the scale of the challenge. Newsom has 45% approval and 46% disapproval among California voters. That is a razor-thin margin in a state where the governor’s job is often seen as a stepping stone to higher office. The question is whether he can turn that margin into a mandate.
The poll shows a governor with a divided state and a divided country. He can win the primary, but he may not win the election. The approval split mirrors President Donald Trump’s ratings.
That is a warning. Newsom has to fix the communication gap before it becomes a fatal flaw. The governor has visited early primary states and supported a national billionaire tax. Those moves are necessary but not sufficient.
The question is whether he can bridge the gap between his world and the world he wants to lead. The poll suggests he has not done that yet.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs smaller government and individual freedom and is against a governor whose approval numbers show a divided state and a divided country. The approval split mirrors President Donald Trump’s ratings, and that comparison alone raises questions about the governor’s ability to unite a fractured electorate.
The poll’s core finding — 45% approve, 46% disapprove — masks deep splits by region, race, and party. About 93% of Republicans said he has been doing a bad job, and a majority of Independents agreed. In Northern California, excluding Sacramento and the Bay Area, just 28% approved while 60% disapproved. Those numbers suggest a governor who cannot command loyalty outside his coastal base.
The governor has visited early primary states and supported a national billionaire tax. Those moves are necessary but not sufficient. The reader should watch whether he can close the gap with rural voters, independents, and Republicans without alienating his base. The poll suggests he has not done that yet.
Source material: “Eye-opening Gavin Newsom poll reveals ticking time bomb in his presidential prospects,” the New York Post.
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