On Wednesday morning, Brent crude was trading at $101.09, marking a 3.2% increase from the previous session and its first close above $100 in six weeks. West Texas Intermediate stood at $96.27. The move has drawn a strong response from prediction market traders.
A stretch of more than a week saw tensions rise steadily before they erupted into conflict. According to Saudi officials, Houthi forces struck Saudi oil installations early Tuesday morning, leaving 73 wounded. The United States responded by striking back on the same day, with U.S. Central Command destroying five Iranian oil tankers. That came after the Americans had already targeted three other vessels on Saturday, in answer to Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at an American warship.
The $120 Side Takes the Lead
Myriad’s question is whether crude heads toward $120 or drops to $55 first, and the $120 side now stands at 56.5%, having climbed 15.1 points. The two sides have traded within a narrow range of a few points since mid-August, with $55 holding the lead for most of that time.
The market has taken $12.7 million in volume since March, with the cross occurring at the start of September and no return yet. Myriad is a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.
Polymarket’s Ladder Reprices
Across the Polymarket platform, a ladder of September WTI price targets has seen its odds adjusted all the way through. A touch of $100 for the month now trades at 59%, having gained nine points. The next rung, landing at $105, now stands at 30%, up 25. The top rung, reaching $90, now sits at 71%, up 21.
The bottom fell out of the other direction.
WTI has fallen to $85, and the decline now sits at 33 points below 39%. Every level beneath it carries a single-digit figure. The $55 line, which Myriad still prices at 44.8% as an eventual result, stands at 1% on Polymarket for this month. The two positions ask separate questions: Myriad’s runs until one target is hit, with no deadline, while Polymarket’s closes at the end of September.
Pump Prices Follow
Gasoline prices are rising alongside diesel, with the latter reaching a new high of $5.94 a gallon on Wednesday, topping the previous peak from last week. Gasoline is averaging $4.22, a figure that arrives weeks before midterm elections where Republicans are already having trouble campaigning on affordability.
Key Numbers
- Brent: $101.09, up 3.2%, first time above $100 in six weeks
- WTI: $96.27
- Myriad $120 side: 56.5%, up 15.1 points
- Myriad volume since March: $12.7 million
- Polymarket WTI at $100 this month: 59%, up nine points
- Polymarket WTI at $105: 30%, up 25
- Polymarket WTI at $90: 71%, up 21
- Polymarket WTI dropping to $85: 39%, down 33 points
- Diesel: record $5.94 a gallon
How the Markets Differ
- Myriad’s market runs until either $120 or $55 is hit, with no deadline.
- Polymarket’s market closes at the end of September.
- The $55 line sits at 44.8% on Myriad but just 1% on Polymarket for this month.
Both platforms are pricing distinct questions, yet they now move in the same direction: upward. Traders have stopped seeking low oil prices.
Source: decrypt.co
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