Democrats need to win four seats to take back the Senate. Republicans are defending eight of the 12 seats that will decide the chamber’s balance of power, according to The Cook Political Report.
The battle lines run through some of the country’s most closely watched races. Trump won most of these states in 2024, but his disapproval rating now hovers right around 60 percent.
The Seat Count
| Race | Party in Defense | Key Fact |
|---|---|---|
| Maine | Republican | Susan Collins faces a competitive race |
| Iowa | Republican | Trump won by double digits |
| Texas | Republican | James Talarico’s PAC has reserved over $60 million |
| Alaska | Republican | Trump won by double digits |
| Ohio | Republican | Trump won by double digits |
| Kansas | MAGA Republicans | Worried about the state |
| New Hampshire | Republican | John E. Sununu vs. Chris Pappas |
| Michigan | Democrat | Abdul El-Sayed targeted by Republicans |
Republicans hold the majority in the Senate. Democrats need to flip four seats to take control.
Trump’s Shadow Over Maine
In Maine, Susan Collins faces a competitive race in a state she survived before. A CNN poll found that 45 percent of voters said their vote is a reflection on President Trump, trying to send a message to him.
That number shows how personal the contest has become.
New Hampshire’s Family Feud
New Hampshire was recently moved into the toss-up column. Kamala Harris carried the state by less than three points in 2024, and the race remains tight.
John E. Sununu, from the state’s most famous political family, is running for the seat. His opponent is Chris Pappas, a Democratic congressman with a well-known name. MAGA Inc. money is a factor in the race.
Michigan’s Demonization Campaign
Michigan is central for Democrats, a state they need to hold. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate, is being demonized by Republicans in the state.
James Talarico’s Texas PAC has put over $60 million in reservations. Candidates like Talarico get cheaper ad rates through super PAC funding.
The Money Edge
The Republican money edge is real, but it comes from super PAC money. That distinction matters for the final weeks of the campaign.
The map has expanded since last year, when Democrats were not considered in contention for the majority at all. Now the stakes are clear: four seats for Democrats.
Ballots have already gone out in some states, meaning early voting is underway in key battlegrounds. The next few weeks will show whether Trump’s approval problem costs his party seats, or whether his base turns out in November.
Republicans are on defense in the majority of these 12 races. Democrats need to win four of them to take control of the Senate. The next few weeks will decide who gets what.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the candidates who champion individual freedom, small business, and an end to concentrations of power, and is against treating the Senate seat count as a horse race between two machines that both gather power. This election season, the fight for the Senate is defined by outside money, family politics, and a president whose popularity troubles his own party.
The paper’s north star—individual freedom, small business, and no concentrations of power—does not sit comfortably with the current setup. Super PAC money gives candidates like James Talarico cheap ad rates, and that money is not accountable to voters the way campaign funds are. The paper wants candidates who answer to their own constituents, not to outside interests.
The race in Maine shows how personal this contest has become. In New Hampshire, the Sununu family’s hold on the state carries weight. In Michigan, the demonization of Abdul El-Sayed raises questions about fair play. The coming weeks will show whether Trump’s approval problem costs his party seats, or whether his base turns out in November.
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