According to BBC Verify analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data, Russia launched its new jet-powered drones against Ukraine every single day throughout August. This marks the first instance of daily strikes where Moscow’s upgraded Geran drones were recorded, and Kyiv’s air defences appear unable to keep pace with the onslaught.
President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned what he called an unfolding “horror” over the skies of Kyiv as the attacks escalated. The drones are much faster than older models, making them far harder to shoot down.
The Numbers Behind the Escalation
The BBC was told by Ukraine’s military that attacks using jet-powered drones increased steadily over time.
- June: 350 attacks
- July: 1,600 attacks
- August: 2,800 attacks
Five of the August nightly attacks involved more of these newer, faster drones than the older, slower models.
The enhanced weapons can glide at a pace exceeding 300mph. This marks a notable step up from earlier Geran variants and far surpasses the highest speed of Kyiv’s defensive aircraft. Their engines run on turbojets, with some, per Ukrainian military intelligence, coming from China.
King’s College London military technology specialist Dr Marina Miron detailed the change.
“The reason for turning to jet-powered drones is that they are much faster than the previous generation and it makes it much more difficult for Ukraine to intercept them,” Miron said.
A Deadly September Opening
According to Zelensky, the drones were among a series of strikes that took the lives of at least 12 people and left 20 wounded on 1 September. Six of those who died were railway staff, struck down when a station was targeted in Kyiv.
The government of Moldova said Wednesday that a plane carrying Zelensky was delayed at Chisinau airport on Tuesday because a Russian drone — described as jet-powered — had entered Moldovan airspace.
This year, Ukraine has been bringing down 94% of long-range drones, according to Zelensky. The pace of the newer drones is driving the latest phase in Kyiv and Moscow’s contest for weapons.
On 10 August, Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence, Maj Gen Vadym Skibitskyi, said his forces needed new interceptor missiles “capable of matching [jet-drones’] speed”.
The Race to Catch Up
Kyiv officials say four Ukrainian firms have begun trials of weapons designed to knock down the new Geran drones. The nation’s new defence chief, Yevhenii Khmara, has ordered them to build “thousands of units” at top speed.
Beyond mere tactics, Russia stands to gain economically by investing in jet-powered drones.
John Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank focused on national security and foreign policy, said the increased speed and manoeuvrability of these models means the line between them and more expensive cruise missiles has become “blurred”.
“Long-range one-way attack drones are basically a poor man’s cruise missile.”
“The more you add capability to a drone, the less meaningful the distinction between the drone and a lower-end cruise missile,” Hardie said.
What the New Drones Can’t Do
Conflict Armament Research, an analyst organisation, stressed that jet-drones still lag behind cruise missiles. The group pointed out that the weapons have a reduced attack distance, bear far lighter warheads, and are more vulnerable to jamming systems.
A New Base Near the Border
New satellite images suggest Moscow is modifying key facilities built for its war against Ukraine so they can handle jet-powered drones instead. At a fresh base called Tsymbulova in the Oryol region, longer rails tied to the munitions are now visible.
The complex appears to have several launch sites, and it sits roughly 109 miles (175 km) away from the Ukrainian border.
From the moment it began operations, Tsymbulova has emerged as a major staging ground for Russian drone strikes. The Oryol region, home to the Tsymbulova base, did not appear in Air Force reports as a drone launch location prior to September 2024. By August 2026, however, it had been cited in nearly every reported attack.
Bigger, More Complex Strikes
BBC Verify has found that Russia is now striking Ukraine with complex attacks involving hundreds of drones and missiles about once a week, and that development arrives alongside a proliferation of jet-powered drones.
The increase in the size of the strikes is being powered by Moscow’s shift towards combining a “greater variety of munitions” — including jet-powered and decoy drones — with expensive ballistic missiles that are extremely difficult to intercept, analyst Michael Bohnert of the RAND think tank told BBC Verify.
The numbers from Kyiv show a dramatic rise in drone use by Moscow since four years ago. The city’s records indicate that the Russian capital is deploying more than 15 times as many unmanned aircraft per strike today.
The tactically complex nature of the attacks, along with a worldwide shortage of air-defence systems capable of stopping ballistic missiles partly caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran, has pushed down interception rates in Ukraine, Bohnert said.
The Interception Problem
The data from Ukraine’s Air Force shows a decline in the number of intercepted ballistic missiles through the end of July. After that point, Kyiv largely stopped posting the numbers that would reveal how often it was catching enemy missiles, with August being the month when that reporting came to an end.
The testing phase continues for Ukraine’s response. The timing of those new interceptor missiles remains uncertain, and whether they arrive in the quantities “thousands of units” Khmara has demanded could be what decides whether Kyiv can close the gap.
The skies above Kyiv stay the front line, with the drones still arriving daily.
Source: bbc.co.uk
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