Two weeks ago, this Saints vs. Falcons matchup looked like a snooze-fest. Now it is a marquee Monday Night Football game with a commemoration of the post-Katrina game played 20 years ago, and enough betting action to fill a sportsbook.
The Falcons get Michael Penix, Jr. back from injury, which gives their offense some life. The Saints remain one of the most fun teams to watch in the NFL. The expert’s picks and bets for NFL Week 4 focus on the total, a pair of player props, and two touchdown contenders. Here is what the expert is selling.
The Total: Over 47.5
The expert opens with the idea that the previous night’s games produced plenty of points, and that trend could continue here. Both teams are capable of scoring, and both have struggled to stop their opponents from doing the same. With two “fun” quarterbacks in Penix and Tyler Shough under center, the expert expects a shootout.
“Kellen Moore loves to play fast and should be able to put up points from the start on this Falcons defense,” the expert writes. “As a result, the Falcons will have to sling it around too and we should end up getting past 50 points here.”
The pick: Over 47.5 total points.
Bijan Robinson’s Prop: Over 130.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
Robinson has cleared this number in two of his three games this year, with the only miss coming in a blowout loss to Carolina where he also did not have a decent quarterback under center. The expert calls him the focal point of the offense, and notes the Saints have been extremely vulnerable to superstar running backs — except for the Ravens’ inexplicable decision not to use Derrick Henry in the second half.
Robinson can get there just rushing, but the expert also notes he is a threat out of the backfield. The number feels low to the expert, who is backing the over.
Chris Olave’s Receptions: 8+ (+122, DraftKings)
Olave has been excellent to start the season, and the expert expects that to continue. His Over/Under on DraftKings is 6.5, but the expert finds the plus-money number on eight receptions more attractive. The expert notes that Shough will not hesitate to look Olave’s way if the scoring plays out as expected.
Touchdown Contenders: Juwan Johnson and Drake London
Juwan Johnson is the sneakiest fantasy tight end of the past two years, according to the expert, and he continues to produce, especially as a target for Shough in the red zone. He has scored three touchdowns already this season, and the Falcons defense has given up three touchdowns to tight ends on the season. The price feels outrageous to the expert, who is backing Johnson at +255.
Drake London offers a better value at +110. The Saints have given up touchdowns to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashad Bateman, and Brock Bowers in their first three games. The expert sees London as the Falcons’ alpha receiver, and the pattern suggests he should find the end zone.
What Is Missing
The expert’s headline promises picks and bets for the entire game, but the column delivers mostly player props. The total is there, and the touchdown bets are there, but the actual game picks — which team to back, how the spread looks — are thin. That is the oddity of this column: it focuses on individual bets rather than the game as a whole.
The expert’s reasoning is sound on the individual bets. The Saints have been vulnerable to running backs, Robinson is the focal point, Olave is a proven target, and the Falcons defense has given up multiple touchdowns to tight ends and receivers this season. The numbers are not wild guesses.
But the absence of a clear game call — which team to back, how the spread reads — leaves readers holding half a hand. The total is a reasonable bet, the props are well explained, and the touchdown picks are grounded in recent results. What is missing is the anchor that the headline promised.
The expert’s own advice is to follow the scoring, and the column does that. It just does not tell you which team to hitch your wagon to.
Key Facts Box
– Game: Saints vs. Falcons, Week 4 Monday Night Football
– Total: Over 47.5 (-114)
– Bijan Robinson prop: Over 130.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
– Chris Olave receptions: 8+ (+122, DraftKings)
– Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown: +255
– Drake London anytime touchdown: +110
– DraftKings promo code: CBSSPORTS55
– BetMGM promo code: CBSSPORTS
– FanDuel promo code: included in the offer
The expert’s picks and bets for NFL Week 4 are available at DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel, with promo codes attached to each platform. The game commemorates the post-Katrina game played 20 years ago.
Source material: “Saints vs. Falcons picks, player props: Expert's best bets for NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football,” CBS Sports.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.