Sky Sports has a computer model, and that computer model thinks Arsenal will win the Premier League for a second year running. The broadcaster’s supercomputer, which runs 10,000 simulations factoring in player availability, rest, fixture congestion, historical performance and betting odds, has settled on an expected points haul of 85.2 for Arsenal — nearly four points clear of Manchester City.
The model’s verdict comes before a ball has been kicked.
How the Supercomputer Makes Its Picks
The supercomputer’s predictions are updated after every match round, meaning the numbers move with each set of results. The model draws on a vast amount of data to project how each team will perform across the entire season, from the opening weekend through to the final day.
The expected (xG) table, which shows how the current standings should look based on expected goals scored and conceded, sits alongside the full predicted table. That gives readers two ways to measure the same thing: how teams are performing now, and how the model thinks they will end up.
For anyone following the league, the model offers a snapshot of where things stand before the actual results arrive. It is a useful tool for tracking the title race, the top-four chase and the relegation battle.
What the Model Says About the Title Race
Arsenal’s 85.2 points put them ahead of Manchester City by nearly four points, according to the model. That gap is significant.
A four-point lead is substantial, but football has a habit of producing results that defy expectations. The model’s predictions are based on a projection, not a guarantee.
The Relegation Battle and the Top Four
The model’s predictions cover the title race, the top four and relegation. The model’s projections are based on a combination of historical performance and current form, which means they are constantly evolving as the season progresses.
A team that starts poorly can recover, and a team that looks strong early can fade.
The model’s predictions are not a prediction of what will happen, but a projection of what could happen. They are a useful tool for tracking the league’s shape, but they should not be mistaken for a definitive statement of fact.
How to Follow the Model’s Projections
Sky Sports updates its predicted table after every match round, which means the numbers change as the season progresses. The model’s predictions are a useful tool for anyone following the league, whether they are a casual fan or a serious bettor. They provide a snapshot of where things stand before the actual results arrive, giving readers a sense of the league’s direction.
Here is how the model’s updates flow:
| Match Round | Date | Arsenal’s Expected Points |
|---|---|---|
| Before kickoff | N/A | 85.2 |
| After Round 1 | N/A | Updates regularly |
| After Round 2 | N/A | Updates regularly |
| After Round 3 | N/A | Updates regularly |
The model’s predictions are a useful tool for tracking the league’s shape, but they should not be mistaken for a definitive statement of fact. They are a projection, not a guarantee.
The Sky Sports supercomputer is a fun toy. Arsenal fans will want to believe it, and City fans will want to ignore it. Everyone else should treat it as a projection, not a prophecy.
Source material: “Predicted PL table – latest from the Sky Sports supercomputer,” Sky Sports.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.