James Talarico holds a 5-point lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new poll of the state’s Senate race, according to Texas Public Opinion Research. The survey of 1,007 likely Texas voters ran fieldwork from Sept. 19 to 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.
Talarico stood at 49%, Paxton at 44%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%, and 3% of voters were undecided.
The Numbers Behind the Lead
Talarico’s edge comes from a wide sweep of demographic groups. He led with black, Latino, under-55, college-educated, and male and female voters. His advantage among independents was even larger: a 32-point lead.
Paxton won only two groups. He led with 55 and over voters and with white voters.
How Each Demographic Voted
The breakdown shows Talarico’s strength across multiple groups. He led with black, Latino, under-55, college-educated, and male and female voters. His advantage among independents was a 32-point lead.
Paxton’s numbers come from two directions. He led with 55 and over voters and with white voters.
What the Undecided Group Could Cost Paxton
The undecided figure is notable because it gives a third party a chance to pull votes away from Paxton. In a tight race, a candidate can lose the contest without losing the argument — a strong showing by Brown could fragment the conservative vote without giving Paxton the win.
That risk sits alongside Paxton’s ongoing legal troubles, which remain unresolved.
The Poll’s Details
The poll comes from Texas Public Opinion Research, which conducted the survey of 1,007 likely Texas voters. Fieldwork ran Sept. 19 to 22, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.6%.
Here is how the poll breaks down:
- Talarico: 49%
- Paxton: 44%
- Ted Brown: 3%
- Undecided: 3%
The Race’s Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Sept. 19–22 | Poll fieldwork conducted |
The poll was released recently, and it is the latest read on a race that has tightened in recent weeks.
What Happens Next
The margin of error means the lead could evaporate. Paxton’s legal troubles remain unresolved.
The race is far from decided.
See the a run of 14 images at the Washington Examiner.
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