The US has seen a historic drop in homicides over the last year and a half, and President Trump and his allies are pointing to one cause: deportations. But experts say the link doesn’t hold up.
Trump said during a speech to the UN general assembly last week: “We have the most secure border in the world, nobody comes in, unless they’re invited. Unless they have permission.” Vice-President JD Vance went further at a rally in Iowa the week prior, making a similar claim about getting violent criminals out of the country.
The Numbers Behind The Claims
The plummeting homicide rate started in 2023, when President Biden was in office, according to researchers. That timeline matters because the administration now credits its own policies with a trend that began before it took power.
There is no data proving mass deportations or enhanced immigration enforcement lead to lower crime rates, and existing research shows no relationship between immigrants — documented or not — and homicide rates in the US.
Pratheepan Gulasekaram, a law professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said: “It’s a specious claim if you’ve never attempted to verify anything with actual facts and are willing to believe what the administration will tell you.”
Erich Pratt, vice-president of Gun Owners of America, argued in a May Instagram video that Americans are “enjoying unprecedented safety” due to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration approach.
The Deportation Data Itself
The administration’s own narrative is contradicted by the data. A Guardian analysis showed that more than 75% of people entering deportation proceedings for the first time had no criminal convictions. Of more than 18,400 people arrested by ICE between 2025 and June this year, only 34 were convicted of killing someone, according to DHS data.
The most common convictions among those arrested were illegal re-entry, driving under the influence, and a category marked as “other.”
No comprehensive or centralized data exists on the citizenship status of people incarcerated in local jails and state prisons, according to a 28 September government accountability office report.
The Long History Of This Claim
Trump has spent a decade making this argument without evidence. He repeatedly cited the killing of Kate Steinle in his 2016 presidential run; the man accused was undocumented. During his 2024 run, he often spoke of Laken Riley, a nursing student killed while jogging; her killer was an undocumented immigrant, and he was sentenced to life in prison.
The Department of Justice announced a new $25m grant program this week to support families of victims killed or injured by undocumented migrants and fund law enforcement efforts to prevent future deaths.
| Claim | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Crime dropped sharply under Trump | Homicides fell sharply starting in 2023 |
| Deportations caused the drop | No data proving a causal link |
| Most deported people have no convictions | More than 75% entered with no criminal record |
| Undocumented immigrants drive violent crime | Studies show no relationship between immigrants and homicide rates |
The Administration’s Response
The Guardian requested data or research proving a causal relationship between immigration enforcement and declining homicide rates from DHS and the White House. Both agencies reiterated their claims that deportation efforts have lowered crime.
That response — repeating the claim without producing the proof — is the pattern throughout the administration’s tenure. Trump has spent years tying immigration to crime, citing cases like Steinle and Riley, and offering no data to back the connection.
Why The Claim Persists
The administration’s persistence is not surprising. Crime is a political issue, and framing immigration as a threat to public safety helps justify harsh enforcement. The problem is that the framing rests on anecdotes, not data.
The pattern is familiar to anyone who follows the administration’s messaging. Trump has spent a decade claiming, without evidence, that undocumented migrants pose a safety threat to US citizens. He cites the killing of Kate Steinle and the death of Laken Riley to make his case.
What remains unproven is whether the administration’s actions changed the outcome. The homicide rate dropped before Trump took office, and the administration has not presented evidence showing that deportations accelerated or sustained that decline.
What The Paper Makes Of It
The administration is using crime statistics to justify harsh immigration policy. That is a claim the evidence does not support.
The experts are clear. There is no data proving that mass deportations or enhanced immigration enforcement lead to lower crime rates, and existing research shows no relationship between immigrants — documented or not — and homicide rates in the US. The administration’s own data shows that most people entering deportation proceedings have no criminal convictions, and only a tiny fraction of those arrested by ICE have been convicted of killing someone.
The pattern is consistent. Trump has spent a decade making this argument without evidence, and the administration’s response to requests for proof has been to repeat the claim rather than produce the evidence.
The administration’s message is simple: deportations are working, and the drop in crime proves it. The experts disagree, and the data available so far supports their position. Until the administration produces evidence linking its policies to falling homicide rates, the claim remains unverified.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither side on the deportation theory itself, but it supports strict, certain punishment for violent crime and opposes any policy that puts violent offenders back on the street. The administration’s claims rest on anecdotes — the killings of Kate Steinle and Laken Riley — and not on data showing that deportations caused the drop in homicides.
The administration’s own data shows that more than 75% of people entering deportation proceedings had no criminal convictions, and only 34 of more than 18,400 ICE arrests were convicted killers. Existing research shows no relationship between immigrants and homicide rates. The administration has offered no data to prove its claim, only assertions repeated without verification.
Readers should note that the homicide drop began under President Biden, before the current administration took power. The administration credits its own policies with a trend that started before it did. The paper will continue to watch for evidence connecting policy to outcomes, and until then it will oppose any claim resting on anecdotes rather than data.
Source material: “Trump and his allies credit deportations with record low crime. Experts disagree,” The Guardian.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.