President Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week, and the stakes are simple: the fragile truce that ended the trade war last year needs to hold. That is the message from Daniel Kritenbrink, an assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the Biden administration, who spoke with NPR’s A Martinez about the upcoming state visit.
Kritenbrink knows the relationship well. He previously served as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Beijing and as U.S. ambassador to Vietnam during the first Trump administration. He is now a partner with consulting firm The Asia Group.
Truce First
The truce, agreed to last year, is the single most important outcome of the relationship. Kritenbrink calls it “the single most important outcome,” and he says the president’s top priority is maintaining it.
Trump is focused on optics designed to promote that stability. Xi Jinping shares the same concern for stability, even as he arrives in Washington feeling extremely confident after standing up to Trump in the trade war.
The Trade War Trigger
The truce followed a clear trigger. In April last year, the president launched a trade war against China, which the Chinese responded to by cutting off rare earth exports. That caused U.S. stock and bond markets to wobble, convincing the president he’d had enough of the trade war.
Kritenbrink argues Trump wants stability rather than fear, calling it a practical approach. He says the president doesn’t have the stomach for a full-on trade war with China.
Respect Between Leaders
When Trump meets other world leaders like President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, both sides know what they want out of each other. With Xi, there’s always a sense of things left unspoken, according to Kritenbrink.
That gap shows up in how the two men speak to each other. Trump always praises Xi as a great leader and a strong leader, showing real admiration, Kritenbrink says. He suggests that respect is partly admiration and partly a practical approach shaped by last year’s trade war.
Xi’s Confidence
Xi comes to Washington with confidence, but he also faces pressure at home. The domestic economy in China is still sluggish, and Xi has his own domestic politics, including hopes for a fourth term next year.
Trump met Xi personally on the tarmac, with a flyover. Kritenbrink notes that Trump always praises Xi as a great leader and a strong leader, showing real admiration.
The Truce Terms
The truce has specific terms. China agrees to keep rare earth exports flowing to the United States and others. The U.S. agrees to curb some of its most restrictive tech-export controls on China.
Kritenbrink predicts human rights issues won’t feature prominently in the visit, if at all. Security issues will take a backseat to trade issues.
Taiwan’s Place
Taiwan will come up in every visit and every meeting, as it always does, Kritenbrink says. He expects Taiwan won’t dominate the visit like it did in Beijing.
Both sides will state their views on Taiwan. There is skepticism about any breakthrough on Taiwan or any other major issue.
The Visit Ahead
Kritenbrink advises watching the visit closely. The core issue for this visit is extension of the truce, which Kritenbrink calls a “trade truce.”
| Issue | Status |
|---|---|
| Rare earth exports | Truce terms require China to keep them flowing |
| Tech-export controls | Truce terms require the U.S. to curb its most restrictive ones |
| Human rights | Predicted to be absent or minor |
| Security | Predicted to take a backseat |
| Taiwan | Expected to come up but not dominate |
The meeting between the two largest economies and two largest military powers tests whether both sides can manage their relationship through optics and quiet cooperation rather than confrontation.
Key Issues at Stake
The visit centers on a few specific points:
- Extension of the truce agreed to last year
- Rare earth exports from China to the U.S. and others
- U.S. tech-export controls on China
- Human rights issues, which Kritenbrink predicts will be absent or minor
- Security issues, which he predicts will take a backseat
- Taiwan, which will come up but not dominate the visit
Kritenbrink’s skepticism about breakthroughs is notable. His prediction that human rights won’t feature and that security will take a backseat suggests the visit will reinforce the status quo rather than change it.
The truce has held so far. Whether it holds through this visit depends on optics and mutual respect, neither of which is guaranteed.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the deal over the standoff and is against both sides turning the truce into a new trade war. The truce was reached after a trade war began, and both presidents appear to want it maintained. The paper’s position is to focus at home and keep the channels open for trade, diplomacy and compromise.
Kritenbrink describes the truce as the single most important outcome of the relationship, and he says the president’s top priority is maintaining it. He also predicts that human rights issues won’t feature prominently in the visit, and that security issues will take a backseat to trade issues — exactly the kind of quiet cooperation the paper favors over confrontation. The truce terms themselves, with China keeping rare earth exports flowing and the U.S. curbing tech-export controls, show a deal rather than a war.
Readers should watch whether the optics hold and whether both sides actually extend the truce rather than let it slip. The paper wants the truce to continue, but it knows optics are not guaranteed.
Source material: “What's at stake during the meeting between Trump and Xi,” NPR.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.