Trump announced the war on Iran in an overnight video, offering little explanation of its purpose or goals. Nearly seven months in, the polls are already moving in the opposite direction of his predecessor’s. In 2002, the House passed an Authorization for the Use of Military Force for the Iraq War by a vote of 296 to 133, with 81 Democrats joining Republicans in favor. The next day, the Senate voted to authorize the war by 77 to 23, including 29 Democrats. Bush later wrote that “The reality was that I had sent American troops into combat based in large part on intelligence that proved false.” Congress did not pass a measure asking the Bush administration to end the war until 2005. Both the House and Senate passed a war funding bill with a mandatory troop withdrawal timetable in 2007; Bush vetoed it. Gallup found 72% of Americans supported the war when it began in March 2003.
The Numbers Behind the War
The drop in support was sharp and steady. By October 2003, six months after the invasion, support had fallen to 54%. By November 2004, it was 48%. By June 2005, it was 39%. By January 2007, it was 36%.
Public Support Now
Nearly seven months in, about 33% of Americans support the war, 59% oppose it. On Trump’s handling, the RealClearPolitics poll average shows 32.6% approve, 62.5% disapprove. The gap between approval and support for the war itself is notable. Fewer Americans approve of Trump’s handling than support the war itself.
The Economic Cost
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News’s Special Report that core inflation, excluding food and energy, has reached an acceptable level. He added, “Once we’re on the other side of this energy supply shock, I actually believe, along with [President Trump], that oil prices will be much lower, because we’ve seen a tremendous amount of supply come on, just in this year.”
Trump has said repeatedly that higher gas costs are “a very inexpensive price to pay” for preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon. The public does not seem to agree.
The Human Toll
About 150,000 U.S. troops were sent to Iraq, with another 100,000 in the region. 4,492 service members died, 32,292 were wounded. In Iran, 19 service members have died, over 800 wounded.
The Anti-War Vote in Congress
The House has passed three anti-war resolutions since the war began. The first came in June, the second in July, and the third last week. No House Democrats voted for the war; 4–7 Republicans joined Democrats against it. The Senate passed an anti-war resolution in June, with four Republicans joining Democrats against the war. One Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), joined Republicans in supporting the war.
The pattern shows lawmakers willing to challenge the White House. Some Republicans are joining Democrats in opposing the war. Others, like Fetterman, are crossing the aisle to support it.
The Cost of the War
The human toll is already significant. About 150,000 U.S. troops were sent to Iraq, with another 100,000 in the region. 4,492 service members died, 32,292 were wounded. In Iran, 19 service members have died, over 800 wounded.
The economic cost is also rising. Trump has said repeatedly that higher gas costs are “a very inexpensive price to pay” for preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon. The public does not seem to agree.
What Happens Next
The war is still young. Seven months is a short window in military history, and public opinion can shift quickly. The anti-war votes in Congress suggest a growing divide between the White House and Capitol Hill. The question is whether that divide grows or narrows as the conflict continues.
The polling numbers will be watched closely. If support continues to fall, the pressure on lawmakers to act will increase. If it stabilizes or rises, the war may continue with broader public acceptance.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the deal over the standoff, and is against Trump’s war on Iran as a foreign entanglement without a clear purpose or goal. The war has already cost lives and dollars, and the polls show the public turning against it even faster than they turned against the Iraq War.
Congress is split, with some Republicans joining Democrats to oppose the war while others cross the aisle to support it. That split suggests lawmakers are willing to challenge the White House, which is encouraging for anyone who wants the war to end sooner rather than later.
What remains unclear is whether the anti-war votes in Congress will grow or narrow as the conflict drags on. The polling numbers will be watched closely, and if support continues to fall, the pressure on lawmakers to act will increase.
Key Facts
- Iraq War authorization: House 296 to 133, Senate 77 to 23
- Troops in Iraq: About 150,000 US troops, another 100,000 in the region
- Casualties: 4,492 dead, 32,292 wounded in Iraq; 19 dead, over 800 wounded in Iran
- Polling: 33% support, 59% oppose; 32.6% approve of Trump’s handling, 62.5% disapprove
- Anti-war votes: Three in House, one in Senate
The contrast between the two presidents is stark. Bush secured Congressional authorization and protection. Trump skipped it entirely. The House has now passed three anti-war resolutions: one in June, one in July, and one last week. No House Democrats voted for the war; 4–7 Republicans joined Democrats against it. The Senate passed an anti-war resolution in June, with four Republicans joining Democrats against the war. One Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), joined Republicans in supporting the war.
The path forward is unclear. The polls show a public that is skeptical of the war and distrustful of the president. The anti-war votes in Congress show a legislature that is willing to challenge the White House.
Source material: “Trump, the midterm elections, Congress, and the war,” the Washington Examiner.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.