Donald Trump posted on Truth Social in late August: “WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!” The president was complaining about the price of aluminum, a metal he said “This country desperately needs.” He noted that the US gets it “for the most part” from Canada, and that the US “needs it badly.”
But the US does not actually need Canada. It needs the minerals that come from Canada. The two countries are deeply entangled in each other’s supply chains, and cutting off those ties would hurt both nations.
The Numbers Behind the Complaint
Canada is the US’s biggest foreign source of minerals, supplying about $47 billion worth each year. About 60% of all the aluminum the US uses each year comes from Canada, where hydroelectric dams on mighty, remote rivers supply cheap, low-carbon electricity to smelters. The US military uses aluminum for shell casings, ship hulls, aircraft fuselage, and the Pentagon’s F-35 fighter jet’s airframe, which is about 40% aluminum.
Trump’s complaint was specific. He said the US needs aluminum badly, and that the country gets it from Canada for the most part. The figures back that up.
The Nickel Problem
Nickel is another critical link. It is a key ingredient in jet engine and armor plate steel alloys, plus industrial products. The US gets about half its supply from Canada. Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to cut off nickel exports if tensions heat up further.
The threat matters because the US has only one nickel mine, with no refineries. Ore from that mine goes to Canada for refining before being sold back to US companies. Cutting off nickel would hit both the aerospace industry and the broader economy, since nickel is used in everything from batteries to stainless steel.
Germanium and Rare Earths
Germanium is used in night-vision goggles, laser rangefinders, solar panels, and fiber optics. China produces most of the world’s germanium and has largely stopped selling it to the US. The premier of British Columbia has suggested banning germanium exports to the US.
China has also restricted exports of gallium, an ingredient in missile-defense and radar-system computer chips. The US produces no primary gallium; a new gallium plant is slated to open next year in Canada. Both moves tighten the squeeze on US access to advanced technologies.
Rare earths are another set of vital military and technology minerals. China produces the bulk of the world’s refined rare earths. Last year, when Trump threatened China with tariffs, Beijing threatened to ban rare earths and related product exports; the US backed down quickly.
Uranium, Potash, and Peat
Canada supplies the US with much of the uranium for its nuclear reactors, which generate nearly a fifth of the country’s electricity. Almost 90% of the potash US farmers use comes from Canada. Peat, another agricultural input, follows a similar pattern.
Getting financing and regulatory approval for a new US mine takes years, and US-produced metals are often more expensive. The US’s second-biggest potash supplier is Russia, which adds another layer of geopolitical risk to the mix.
What Ontario’s Ford Said
Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned recently: “Everything’s on the table.” That is a blunt statement from a leader whose province supplies some of the most critical materials the US military relies on. The warning suggests Ford is willing to use leverage where he can get it, but it also signals that he understands the consequences of a full break.
The situation is delicate. A move to cut off nickel would ripple through global markets, but it would also create a precedent that could come back to haunt Canadian exporters in the future.
The Exemption
The US has almost completely exempted metals from the list of Canadian goods subject to new 50% import levies, which suggests the administration understands how central these materials are to American manufacturing and defense.
What Happens Next
The question now is whether the current tension will ease or escalate. The rhetoric is still hostile, and threats have a way of becoming reality when they come from men in power.
The warning is clear. Cutting off Canadian mineral supplies would hurt both nations. The US would lose access to essential materials for its military and economy. Canada would lose a major customer and a reliable partner.
The path forward is not obvious. The US could push ahead with its self-sufficiency agenda, build new mines, and find alternative suppliers. Or it could recognize the reality on the ground and work with Canada to manage the relationship. The latter seems wiser, but politics rarely follows wisdom.
The key facts are simple:
- Canada supplies about $47 billion in minerals to the US each year
- About 60% of US aluminum comes from Canada
- The US gets about half its nickel from Canada
- The US gets almost 90% of its potash from Canada
- The US has almost completely exempted metals from Canadian import levies
The warning is real. Everything is on the table.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the US getting its minerals from wherever it can get them, and is against any office gathering power over trade that could cut off supplies the country needs. The Trump administration’s approach — threatening Canada over nickel, warning about germanium, and pushing for rare earths independence — fits that second point exactly. The US should be working to secure its supplies rather than threatening the very partners that provide them.
The numbers show the depth of the dependence. About 60% of US aluminum, about half its nickel, and almost 90% of its potash come from Canada. The US has almost completely exempted metals from new import levies on Canadian goods, recognizing how central these materials are to American manufacturing and defense.
The paper’s concern is not with trade balances or tariffs. It is with any office gathering power over trade that could cut off supplies the country needs. Threatening to cut off nickel or germanium export flows is the kind of concentration of power the paper opposes. It hands one office the authority to disrupt entire industries, and the US does not need that kind of exposure.
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