The White House has posted a graph showing a 96 percent drop in legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries since 2024, and Republicans are cheering the data as proof that President Donald Trump’s policies are working.
The graph comes from the Cato Institute, a think tank the White House calls “notoriously pro-immigration.” It shows immigration from Muslim-majority nations peaked at over 22,000 people per month between July and October of 2024, then fell to almost nothing by the beginning of January of this year.
The decline started in late 2024, the last year of former President Joe Biden’s tenure, and continued sharply from January 2025, when Trump officially took office.
Numbers Behind the Post
The Cato Institute’s graph tracks the monthly total of legal immigration from majority-Muslim countries. The peak of over 22,000 people per month came in the summer and fall of 2024, before Trump’s policies took full effect.
By the start of January of this year, that number had dropped to almost zero.
The White House framed the chart as evidence of its success. Republicans responded with posts and quotes celebrating the change.
Who Is Celebrating
Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, called it “Absolutely incredible victory for the American people, thanks to POTUS.”
Brandon Herrera, the GOP nominee for Congress in Texas’ 23rd District, said “These are the wins we need to continue to deliver on.”
Rep. Randy Fine, R-Fla, said “4 percent to go! Thank you, President Trump.”
Columnist Kurt Schlichter said “Let’s pump up those rookie numbers for every category of immigrant.”
David Harrison said “I voted for this—and will again.”
Ben Larrabee of Turning Point Action said “Remember that Democrats will reverse this overnight.”
Andrew Kolvet, spokesman for Turning Point USA, said “Vote like Western Civilization depends on it, because it does.”
James Lindsay said “People screaming that Trump and the GOP aren’t doing anything about this problem [are] hardest hit, like squarely between the eyes.”
The Cato Response
Not everyone agreed with the celebration. David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at Cato, replied to the post.
“Thanks for citing my work. You are violating the law and harming Americans while making the country less safe, less free, and less prosperous,” he said.
Bier’s response is notable because Cato is widely known as a pro-immigration think tank. His statement suggests disagreement with the White House’s reading of his research.
Legal History
No court has decided that Trump’s move to reduce immigration from Muslim-majority countries is “illegal,” though there have been challenges in district courts.
During his first term, Trump faced a challenge to his proposed travel restrictions from Muslim-majority countries. The policy was enjoined by the federal district court for the District of Hawaii.
Two federal appellate courts upheld the policy.
The Supreme Court ultimately decided in Hawaii vs. Trump that Trump’s policy was legal.
| Policy | Timeline |
|---|---|
| Trump’s travel restrictions | Enjoined by federal district court for the District of Hawaii |
| Trump’s travel restrictions | Upheld by two federal appellate courts |
| Trump’s travel restrictions | Decided legal by the Supreme Court in Hawaii vs. Trump |
What the Data Measures
The Cato graph measures legal immigration, not illegal crossings. It tracks the total number of people admitted legally from Muslim-majority countries each month.
The 96 percent drop is dramatic, but it also reflects a shift in policy that began before Trump took office. The decline started in late 2024, during Biden’s presidency, and accelerated once Trump took office in January 2025.
Bottom Line
The White House has posted a graph showing a dramatic drop in legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries. Republicans are celebrating the data as proof of Trump’s policies.
The policy’s legality remains unresolved in the courts. No court has ruled it illegal, though district court challenges have been raised.
The debate is now public. Republicans are framing the drop as a victory for the American people, while Cato’s director is calling it a violation of the law.
The story is not over. The policy continues, and the reaction to it is likely to shape the conversation around immigration for months to come.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the Cato Institute’s numbers being used for public information and is against the White House using them to claim credit for a policy that began under a different administration. The drop in legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries is real, but the timing tells a different story than the White House wants to tell.
The Cato Institute is widely known as a pro-immigration think tank, and its director’s own response to the White House post makes clear he disagrees with the administration’s reading of his research. The decline in immigration began in late 2024, during Biden’s presidency, before Trump took office. The White House is now using those same numbers to take credit for a policy that started elsewhere.
The White House has posted the data and Republicans are celebrating it. But the policy’s legality remains unresolved in the courts, even if no court has yet ruled it illegal. Readers should keep an eye on how the administration frames its record and whether it stops taking credit for a trend that began before it took office.
Source material: “Republican glee erupts as White House boasts sharp decline in immigration from Muslim-majority nations,” Fox News.
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