The NFL has a problem, and it is not the refs. It is the schedule. After a Week 3 that saw 12 games decided by one score — tied for the most ever in league history — the league’s calendar is doing its best to make Week 4 even stranger. The Browns are the most underrated team in the NFL, the Steelers are cursed on Thursday nights, and the Cowboys are flying 5,200 miles with no rest. Here is how it breaks down.
Browns and Steelers: The Longest Losing Streak
The Browns are tied for first in the AFC North heading into Week 4. That is the kind of sentence that normally comes with a caveat — “if the season ended today.” In this case, it is not a caveat. Todd Monken’s team has done the work, and the result is a franchise that has not won a division title since 1989.
I can’t remember the last time I used the words “Browns” and “First place” in the same sentence.
The author admits he cannot recall a similar moment, and he is not alone. The Browns have been a punchline for decades. But the 1989 reference carries a strange weight. Taylor Swift was born that year. She also sang the national anthem at a Steelers game, and the Steelers lost that day.
The pick here is the Browns, and it rests on two trends. First, the Steelers are the worst Thursday night road team in NFL history. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, they are 3-16 in Thursday road games, and 0-9 in divisional Thursday games. The streak started in 1980 with a loss to the Houston Oilers and has lasted 46 years. The Steelers have played two divisional games against teams that are no longer in their division — the Jaguars and the Oilers/Titans.
Second, Cleveland is a black hole for the Steelers. The Browns have won four straight home games against Pittsburgh. The author takes the Browns in an upset, with the Browns covering the spread.
Cowboys and Texans: The Long Trip Home
Jerry Jones is not friends with the NFL scheduling department. The Cowboys spent Week 3 in Rio de Janeiro, flying 10 hours each way for a game that covered more than 5,200 miles. Every team that has ever flown that far got a bye or extra rest the following week. The Cowboys did not.
The Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to fly at least 5,200 miles for a game and not get any extra rest. They have to play in Week 4 without any rest, and they have to play on the road. Before this year, the NFL had held two games in Brazil, and both were played on a Friday. That gave teams two extra days of rest. The Cowboys get none.
Brian Schottenheimer, the Cowboys coach, had a blunt response. “The schedule is the schedule, and we will play anybody anytime, anywhere, but it’s a unique schedule for sure.”
What the Picks Mean
The author’s picks lean on trends, not current form. The Browns are a trendy pick because of their record, but the author notes the Steelers feel like the better team on paper. The Cowboys are a pick against them because of the travel, not because the Texans are any good.
The Week 4 picks include the Browns (+2.5) over the Steelers, with the Browns winning 19-16. The author’s newsletter subscribers get two emails a week with football news and “maybe some cat photos.”
The Schedule Is the Problem
The author opens with a plea to Roger Goodell. He is not calling for Week 4 to be canceled, but he suggests postponing it a few days so everyone can recover from the madness of Week 3. Twelve games decided by one score is tied for the most ever, and the league has already piled on.
The Browns are the most underrated team in the NFL. The Steelers are cursed on Thursday nights. The Cowboys are exhausted after a long round trip.
Week 4 is going to be wild. The Browns and Steelers open on Thursday night, and the Cowboys and Texans meet on Sunday. The picks are on the board. The travel is set.
Source material: “NFL Week 4 picks and score predictions: Texans get first win, Bengals edge Jaguars,” CBS Sports.
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