Inspire Brands has struck a nationwide deal with Walmart, and the partnership adds restaurant delivery to Walmart’s app. Arby’s, Jimmy John’s, Dunkin, Baskin-Robbins, and Sonic are all part of it. Dunkin’ will be the first to roll out, starting with 150 in-store locations before spreading to most of its roughly 10,000 U.S. restaurants. The arrangement places Walmart closer to direct competition with DoorDash and Uber Eats.
Walmart’s expansion is notable, yet analysts caution that its success thus far has been confined to restaurants located within its own stores. The moment it ventures beyond those sites, the financial picture shifts substantially.
The Inspire Brands Deal
Five chains make up the partnership, all owned by Inspire Brands. Dunkin’ will be the first brand to launch, starting with 150 in-store tenant locations. From there, Walmart and Dunkin’, for its part, plans to bring the arrangement to most of its Dunkin’s roughly 10,000 U.S. restaurants, including locations outside Walmart’ stores.
Walmart already has the physical stores to build on, and the idea is for customers to combine a restaurant order with a Walmart purchase, getting both delivered at once. Walmart says its locations sit within 10 miles of roughly 90% of the U.S. population.
Why Leaving Stores Matters
The move away from in-store restaurants toward independent locations alters the financial picture completely. According to Mike Danford, co-owner and chief strategy officer at Adverio, the change is not subtle.
“Once you leave your own building, the attachment breaks, and you’re essentially running pure delivery economics against DoorDash and Uber Eats, who have already occupied that ground.”
Since the restaurant sits inside the store itself, deliveries from there are simpler to arrange. Once a customer moves beyond that building’s walls, though, the coordination required becomes far more difficult.
The Delivery Business Is Capital Intensive
Experts note that feeding customers from Walmart’s in-house eateries operates on a distinct economic model than running a true marketplace delivery business. Once Walmart attempts to push those same operations past its own walls, it will be stepping into Uber and DoorDash territory. That’s when the pressure starts building.
I see no value in pursuing this approach, since the heavy costs tied to this capital-heavy operation might hold back the rest of the business for years.
DoorDash Is Moving the Other Way
Walmart faces a more complicated competitive challenge now because DoorDash is expanding further into grocery and retail delivery. The company is already seeing real gains in margins and delivery density across that overlapping market.
The size of Walmart’s store base and its shipping system provide real benefits. The most recent news, however, has not shown whether those strengths can carry over to the harder, profit-focused side of the shipping business.
Walmart’s Stock Picture
The share price of Walmart has risen by a mere 3% over the past 12 months, falling short of the S&P 500’s 15% gain over the same stretch. After reaching an all-time peak in May, the stock has declined about 22%, with poor guidance overshadowing solid performance. It currently trades near its 52-week low.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Aug. 20 | Walmart posts second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings |
| Sept. 10 | KeyBanc reiterates Overweight rating |
| Sept. 10 | Barclays reiterates Overweight with $132 price target |
What Analysts Are Saying
KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating on Walmart on Sept. 10, citing the company’s ongoing market share gains and strength in delivery, e-commerce, and advertising. The firm is still bullish on those areas. Barclays also held its Overweight stance for the stock, attaching a price target of $132.
According to 39 Wall Street analysts, Walmart carries a Strong Buy rating, with a mean price target of $127.55, suggesting a 21% upside. None of those 39 has issued a Sell rating, showing that analysts continue to be largely positive about a stock that has fallen considerably from its 52-week high.
The Bottom Line
On paper, Walmart’s new delivery drive sounds ambitious. The distance from store partnerships to direct competition with DoorDash and Uber Eats, however, is considerable, and the costs involved are severe.
Both revenue and profit for the second quarter exceeded Wall Street’s estimates, yet the stock dropped almost 10% on the day after guidance fell short of what analysts expected. Concerns over slowing U.S. comparable sales weighed on investor sentiment, and CFO John David Rainey cautioned that consumers continue to be squeezed, particularly given that fuel prices remain elevated.
The present expansion reveals more about Walmart’s ambitions than it does about its capacity to become a true rival to the existing players.
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