Category 5 Hurricane Polo has grown into one of the most powerful Pacific cyclones in decades, and it is expected to skirt Mexico’s southwestern coast as a Category 5 storm. At its peak, Polo had maximum sustained winds of 165 mph (265 kph), making it an “extremely dangerous” hurricane according to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.
The storm was centered 210 miles (338 kilometers) south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, nearly stationary over the Pacific Ocean as of Tuesday night. The NHC said Polo was expected to start a slow but sharp turn northwest during the night and then travel in a generally west-northwestward direction over the next several days.
Key Facts Box
- Peak winds: 165 mph (265 kph)
- Distance from Zihuatanejo: 210 miles (338 kilometers)
- Forecast rain: 3 to 6 inches (8 to 15 centimeters) in Guerrero and Michoacán
- Strongest recorded in the Pacific Basin since Hurricane Patricia (215 mph, 346 kph in 2015)
The President’s Warning
President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico cited experts who suggested the hurricane would not make landfall. The NHC, however, cautioned that powerful winds were stretching far beyond the storm’s center.
Tuesday saw schools temporarily closed in several regions as dark clouds churned above stormy waters and beaches stood empty. The navy responded by shutting ports in Guerrero and Michoacán, and issued warnings to civilians and fishermen alike.
The Business at Stake
López Villegas was busy getting her seaside restaurant ready for whatever might come next. The sea was already rolling strong against the coast of her city Lázaro Cárdenas in Michoacán. Men and children watched the moving water behind her, while she expressed fear that powerful waves could ruin the small business she has spent decades building.
“We’re worried and trying to protect our businesses,” López Villegas said. “And of course, we’re sad because it’s our heritage, our legacy that from one moment to another could be destroyed.”
A Record-Setting Storm
According to National Hurricane Center records, Polo has matched the strength of just a handful of hurricanes that have formed in the area over the past few decades, with Hurricane Patricia being the most notable example, reaching 215 mph (346 kph) in 2015.
“This is one of the strongest storms ever in the (Pacific) Basin,” said Kristen L. Corbosiero, professor at the University at Albany’s Department of Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences.
The NHC issued a warning that tropical storm conditions were expected along the Pacific coast in Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima states. The agency also said heavy rain could bring flash flooding and mudslides. About 3 to 6 inches (8 to 15 centimeters) of rain was forecast for Guerrero and Michoacán states, with lighter amounts possible for coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco states.
The U.S. Embassy’s Warning
Citizens were told by the U.S. Embassy in Mexico to keep away from water and beaches while paying close attention to any warnings coming from Mexican authorities.
“Even if the storm does not make direct landfall, heavy rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Hazardous ocean conditions—intensified by storms—may result in deadly rip currents and rogue waves,” the embassy wrote in a statement.
The El Niño Effect
Scientists and officials have been left astonished by the quick rise in power shown by the storm, which the NHC described in a report as gaining strength at a rate that took them “truly remarkable” over the last 24 hours.
Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, said the weather phenomenon known as El Niño was responsible for the intensification. That same El Niño has fueled crippling droughts in Mexico and Central America and floods in other parts of the region.
He pointed to the Pacific, where rising temperatures and shifting winds have fed into the development of more powerful hurricanes.
“There are all the ingredients that hurricanes need to get really strong really fast,” Klotzbach said.
The Region’s History With Category 5 Hurricanes
Polo stands as the third Category 5 hurricane of the Pacific season, coming after Genevieve and Lowell were named earlier this year. Category 5 represents the top level on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which applies when a storm’s maximum sustained winds exceed 157 mph, or 253 kph.
This year’s season has gone on without any Atlantic hurricanes forming, setting a record for the longest stretch at the start of a season with no hurricane activity. The reason is the current El Niño, which works against the storms before they can develop.
The Risk Ahead
Multiple states stand to face serious rain, and the forecast points to significant totals for several regions. Beyond that, the danger extends beyond coastal buildings to waves, flooding and mudslides alike, all of which the storm’s forecast puts on the table.
A forecast from the U.S. Embassy’s warning was direct: even a storm that stays offshore could produce deadly flooding and mudslides, with hazardous ocean conditions intensified by the storm. The NHC’ calls for between 3 and 6 inches of rain in Guerrero and Michoacán, with lesser amounts possible in other locations. That projection points to a significant amount of expected rainfall over the next several days.
That authorities are treating the threat as serious is shown by their actions: evacuating schools and closing ports.
Many people in López Villegas’s position share her fear. The tempest is mighty, the dangers genuine, and those along the shore are working hard to shield what they have raised up.
“Even if the storm does not make direct landfall, heavy rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Hazardous ocean conditions—intensified by storms—may result in deadly rip currents and rogue waves.”
The U.S. Embassy has issued a warning, and it describes the peril of a storm that might never make landfall yet still cause immense harm through its wind and rain. The residents of Lázaro Cárdenas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, Oaxaca, Jalisco and the other affected states understand that risk intimately.
The forecast for the next few days hinges on how much strength the storm retains while moving through the area. Polo stands among the strongest storms to strike this region in decades, and it now puts the measures set up after earlier storms’ destruction to the test.
Along Mexico’s Pacific shore, people are keeping watch on the clouds, holding their breath for the worst while they hope the storm moves past them.
Source material: “Category 5 Hurricane Polo is 'one of the strongest storms ever',” NPR.
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