America’s move toward clean energy is unstoppable, and Donald Trump cannot halt it. What he can do, according to a new argument from Leah C. Stokes, Anton Vonk Associate Professor of Environmental Politics at UC Santa Barbara, is raise its cost. The case depends on a straightforward calculation: the price of wind and solar power keeps falling, while coal and natural gas keep rising.
The cost of solar, wind and batteries continues to decline, while the price of coal climbs. Political promises about affordability will chase those lower prices regardless of who sits in the White House. The real issue is not whether the shift to cleaner energy occurs, but how quickly it takes place.
The Numbers Behind the Transition
Since 2015, a majority of the new power created across America has been produced without carbon emissions. This year, 93% of new electricity generation is projected to arrive from solar, wind and battery storage. The shift did not happen because of any single president’s policies. It happened because clean energy has become the least expensive option for adding electricity to the grid.
Stokes cites a specific case: the solar industry increased its yearly construction rate threefold in just six years. The significance of that speed lies in the actual expansion of the grid. Electricity use is growing due to AI, data centers and the shift toward electric power, and some critics contend that clean energy alone cannot satisfy that demand.
Stokes makes the case that the quickest way forward is to construct more quickly. Fresh solar installations and battery systems can be erected within a couple of years. The supply backlog for gas turbines now stretches into the 2030s. Therefore, the most expedient and cost-effective response to increasing electricity demand is to erect clean energy instead.
Why Coal Is Already Losing
The most obvious target for change is coal, which supplies roughly one-sixth of America’s electricity while 99% of the nation’s coal plants cost more to run than they would to close and build new solar, wind and storage instead. In Michigan, the Trump administration stepped in to force an old coal plant to remain operating past its intended shutdown date. That one decision now costs consumers $600,000 a day. The federal court refused to uphold that order on Sept. 11.
The coal business has already fallen hard, dropping 43% since 2010. Without continued government aid, the industry is headed for the exit. Trump’s efforts to bring it back have not changed the underlying numbers. Coal simply cannot match natural gas on either cost or reliability.
Gas Faces the Same Math
Much of what remains of the power sector’s carbon footprint comes from gas plants. Yet solar, wind and storage are getting closer to gas on price, even when no government support is factored in. Put together, solar and batteries can now be built and operated at a lower cost than a new gas plant.
Two objections come from those who doubt a full shift away from fossil fuels can work:
- The argument that growing electricity demand makes it impossible to supply all power through clean sources alone, leaving natural gas as an essential part of the grid
- The objection pointing to the Trump administration’s stance against renewables: expiring tax credits for wind and solar, along with tariffs on solar panels and batteries, could slow down the expansion of clean energy infrastructure
Neither objection gets the sequence right. Proposals for new gas plants to run data centers have risen sharply, yet more than three-quarters of this pipeline remains in its earliest stages, with many projects pushed back. The shortage of gas turbines stretches into the 2030s.
What Trump Can’t Stop
Trump’s administration won’t be around forever. Rising electricity prices have become a central issue in this year’s midterms. Politicians promising affordability will turn to the cheapest way to power households: clean energy. The market will keep the transition moving no matter who is in the White House.
The central argument rests on one fact: clean energy now offers the lowest-cost path for adding electricity to the grid. Any politician hoping to win on affordability will therefore pick it. Trump can hike the price of clean energy via tariffs, but he has no power to halt the fundamental shift driving it down.
Accelerating the Transition at the Local Level
At the state and local level, there is much we can do to accelerate progress. One approach involves removing obstacles to plug-in solar. In Germany, over a million homes now use “balcony solar,” wall-socket panels that avoid permits and utility forms entirely. Utah passed plug-in solar legislation last year, and California’s legislature has just given its approval as well.
Plug-in batteries pair with home systems so that everyday people can make and hold their own clean power. A water heater acts as a storage device: warm the vessel during the day, and tonight’s shower comes from stored sunlight. Heat pumps can cool or warm a house ahead of evening in the same manner. Charge an electric car at the workplace, and the trip home runs on solar power.
States don’t need the federal government to make midday power cheap, or even free, and pay homes to change when they use it. They can also draft building rules that make flexible electric machines the standard substitute. Taken together, these moves could meet rising demand using the grid that already exists.
The Bottom Line on the Grid
The only real question is how fast we replace the old one. America’s legacy system still uses dirty energy, and that takes time to fix. Today, 57% of America’s power is generated from burning fossil fuels, compared to just 43% from clean sources.
The course is set. The change has always come in pulses: it falls, then rises again with greater force. Millions of people moving together is precisely what creates the next surge.
The question is whether a clean grid is within reach. The answer is yes. Renewables hold the advantage on paper, and political momentum is moving in their direction. Trump can raise the cost of clean energy, but he cannot halt its progress.
Source material: “Trump can't stop America's shift to clean energy. And we can accelerate it.,” Live Science.
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