Large-scale fighting has broken out again in northern Ethiopia, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Amhara Fano militias clashing against the federal government and allied Tigrayan forces since 23 September. The TPLF carried out ground attacks alongside other rebel groups, part of a new alliance committed to toppling Ethiopia’s government.
Almost five months have passed since the TPLF seized control of the Tigray region, a move that dealt a blow to the 2022 peace agreement that brought the previous Tigray war to an end. Since then, the capital city has stepped up its air assault against TPLF troops with unmanned aircraft. The fighting is now fully renewed, and the responsibility for the renewed hostilities falls entirely on the TPLF.
Why Ethiopia Keeps Choosing War
The author of An Africanist Perspective argues that war in Ethiopia is not unavoidable. He contends that the present conflict stems from elites opting for war instead of peace. Ethiopian leaders still benefit from backing by warmongering academics, journalists, public intellectuals, civil society actors, and foreign actors — all of whom have already picked sides and turned into cheerleaders for their own camps.
The author speaks plainly on the Abiy Ahmed administration, and there are plenty of reasons to dislike it.
- Strong elements of autocratic intolerance, often expressed in the form of indiscriminate force
- Unwillingness to publicly countenance alternative worldviews and policy positions
- Reliance on vindictive governance styles anchored around identity politics and collective punishment
- Promotion of a personality cult that makes it difficult to build broad and durable coalitions
Doubt exists that a superior politician could resolve the current predicament in Ethiopia. The underlying causes of instability among the country’s ruling class run very deep.
The Search for a New Myth
For the past thirty years, Ethiopia has been looking for a new founding story. The ethno-federalist arrangement had a genuine argument behind it: giving each nation and nationality within the country its own dignity through language and culture. But its appeal rested on memories of hardship rather than on visions of what could come next.
The situation worsened into a breeding ground for social and economic injustice. Without farsighted political elites to craft a new inclusive myth, ethnic groups retreated to find their stories in their own small compartments. This move only deepened narrow ethnic histories and ideals.
Abiy is an easy target for criticism. Yet the real facts show that Ethiopia’s underlying issues existed before he took office, and they will likely persist long after he leaves it.
Who Is Driving the War Drums
Those in Ethiopia who have torn up the Pretoria Agreement and shout the loudest about war believe that the country can only prosper under their rule alone. Almost without exception, these warmongers push for the most extreme demands and are quick to use legitimate historical wrongs as weapons for narrow personal gain.
Most of the leading characters are men bent on settling scores from years past, and they would rather meet their end through conflict than submit to what they consider inferior political rivals. Under the banner of a harsh, ancient form of national loyalty tied to ethnicity and its own states, these same characters have managed to gather fighters around them.
Weldemichel makes a strong argument for seeing the Pretoria Agreement through to completion. The agreement ended large-scale fighting and included provisions that cover several unresolved issues. It is not perfect, and the parties involved have not always lived up to its terms.
The Cost to Civilians
The suffering of ordinary people rarely enters the minds of those who wage war. The toll of dead from the fighting in Tigray could have reached 600,000, by some reckonings. That is a staggering loss of life. Lower estimates still place it among the most fatal conflicts of the 21st century.
It is not clear why anyone would want a full-scale war to resume given how combatants fight in Ethiopia, with food scarcity being made worse along the way. It is also hard to understand why Ethiopian leaders and those who encourage them are willing to put their people through so much hardship.
How Ethnic Federalism Fuels Polarization
In Ethiopia, ethnic division fuels conflict. Yet it makes sense to examine how the country’s form of federalism adds to that division.
The end of the civil war saw the rise of ethno-states, which made ethnic difference more noticeable. People who were raised under ethnic federalism tend to identify with their ethnicity rather than their nation. Yet there is no evidence that generational shifts have anything to do with how people view ethnic federalism as a political setup.
One’s group identity tends to shape views on ethnic federalism more than how strongly people identify with their ethnicity, according to research. That pattern matches what has happened in other places, such as Lebanon and the UK.
When governments treat ethnic groups as distinct categories within their administrative systems, or when they set aside opportunities for specific identity groups, those arrangements give individuals reasons to focus on their ethnic background. Over time, such policies can lead to a society where ethnicity shapes how people view both themselves and those around them.
What the Writer Recommends
Before Abiy came along, the writer’s view is clear. Ethiopia’s structural problems were already there, and they will endure after he is gone. What is happening now stems from elites picking war instead of peace. While the Pretoria Agreement has its flaws, it ended large-scale fighting and includes commitments that deal with the main unresolved issues.
There is no reason to rush back into all-out war when the death count may have already reached 600,000. The writer makes the case for peace plainly, asking why anyone would want to restart a conflict that has already claimed so many lives.
In the writer’s judgment, the driving force behind conflict is the grievance felt by people at the top and politics centered on group identity. Those pushing for war act from demands that go beyond what is reasonable and they turn real complaints about history into tools for narrow purposes. Mostly men are behind it, trying to settle scores that go back many years.
Key Facts
- Large-scale hostilities broke out on 23 September between the TPLF and Amhara Fano militias vs. the federal government and allied Tigrayan forces
- The TPLF retook power in the Tigray region almost five months ago, dealing a blow to a 2022 peace deal
- Addis Ababa has mounted an intensifying drone campaign against TPLF forces
- Death toll estimates in the Tigray war may have reached as high as 600,000
- The Pretoria Agreement brought large-scale fighting to an end and contains commitments addressing key unresolved issues
The Order of Events
- The TPLF retook power in the Tigray region almost five months ago, dealing a blow to the 2022 peace deal
- Addis Ababa responded with an intensifying drone campaign against TPLF forces
- Large-scale hostilities broke out on 23 September between the TPLF and Amhara Fano militias vs. the federal government and allied Tigrayan forces
- The TPLF launched ground assaults in coordination with other rebel groups, forming a new alliance that vows to overthrow Ethiopia’s government
The conflict has resumed, and the human toll is already immense. The author’s core query still stands open: what explains the willingness of Ethiopian elites and their supporters to inflict such suffering on their own people?
Source material: “The Escalation of War in Ethiopia,” africanistperspective.com.
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