ChatGPT is 2-8 on the season after a 0-5 start, and Dan is 5-5. That is the math behind the latest round of NFL betting picks from OutKick, where the human writer and the AI square off each week. The stakes are simple: pick five bets, all priced at least even money, and see who wins. Dan is ahead, and he wants to stay that way.
The setup is familiar. Dan and GPT each select five picks from the same odds, with no wager allowed to sit under -120. A bet at -110 loses 1.10 units to win one; a bet at +110 loses 0.91 units to win one. The results from Week 2 are fresh in everyone’s mind, and GPT is trying to snap a losing streak that started badly and hasn’t recovered yet.
Week 2 Recap
Last week, Dan went 2-3 with -1.23 units. His Browns pick (+8, -108) won, as did his Panthers-Falcons under (+110). The Giants (+7, -102), Chiefs (-6½, -115) and Chargers (-6½, -110) all lost. He whined about Jayden Daniels getting hurt, which certainly didn’t help the Commanders bet, but admitted he was flat-out wrong on the Packers and Chargers.
The GPT’s record sits at 2-3 after losing 1.27 units for the day. All three teams it backed fell short: the Jaguars at +3, -110, the Giants at +7, -102, and the Chiefs at -6½, -115. Both underdogs delivered, though: the Steelers-Patriots under (41½, -107) and the Vikings-Bears under (48, -106). The spread picks did not fare as well. Jacksonville lost by seven, the Giants got crushed by 22, and Kansas City needed extra time to edge Indianapolis by three. Through two weeks, GPT stands 0-7 on spread and moneyline picks.
Season Totals
| Record | Units | |
|---|---|---|
| Dan | 5-5 | -0.24 |
| GPT | 2-8 | -6.50 |
GPT’s 20% win rate is the butt of this joke. Dan is exactly .500 at 5-5, which isn’t awesome, but it stands out compared to GPT’s putrid 20%. Dan admits it makes him feel much better about backing the Steelers getting 3½ points against Cincinnati in Week 3, since AI is on the opposite side.
Week 3 Picks
Dan’s card this week includes a Giants home favorite, a Steelers underdog, a Buccaneers moneyline, an over on Raiders-Saints and an under on Eagles-Bears. GPT’s picks are different, and the two disagree directly on the Bengals-Steelers game.
- New York Giants -2½ (-110) — Dan backs the Giants after losing quarterback Jaxson Dart for the rest of the regular season and seeing Jameis Winston look atrocious in his stead. Winston gets a week to prepare as the starter, and Dan expects him to be better. He also thinks Tennessee isn’t very good.
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3½ (-112) — Dan sees this as a “fade the public” bet. The Steelers haven’t looked good in either of their two games, despite being 1-1, and the Bengals look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Everyone expects Cincinnati to roll Pittsburgh, so Dan grabs the points at home in a divisional matchup.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (+106) — Dan thinks the Bucs are probably not quite as bad as their 0-2 record suggests, and the lookahead line prior to Week 2 favored them. He sees the Vikings as a pretty fraudulent 2-0 team.
- Las Vegas Raiders-New Orleans Saints Over 44 (-105) — Dan likes the over in this matchup, with the Raiders as the road team.
- Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Bears Under 42½ (-110) — Dan is on the under in this NFC East showdown.
The Direct Disagreement
The largest difference between the two picks lands on the Bengals-Steelers contest. Dan has placed his money on the Steelers +3½ (-112), while GPT is betting on Cincinnati. Dan describes the gap as a “direct head-to-head disagreement.”.
Dan’s reasoning is straightforward: the extra half-point is valuable, and this is a divisional matchup at home. With everyone expecting Cincinnati to roll Pittsburgh, he’ll grab the points. GPT’s concern is the Steelers’ struggling offense facing an improved Bengals defensive front, with Joey Porter Jr. and Jamel Dean questionable against Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The Rest Of Dan’s Card
The Giants pick is a “plug your nose” bet. Dan admits it doesn’t feel great to back a team that just lost its quarterback for the rest of the regular season and saw Jameis Winston look atrocious in his stead. Malik Nabers being cleared gives Jameis Winston his most important receiving option. Dan just doesn’t think Tennessee is very good, and he expects Winston to improve after a week as the starter.
Dan considers the Buccaneers moneyline (+106) a good bet, since the lookahead line favored Tampa prior to Week 2. He describes the Vikings as a pretty fraudulent 2-0 team, while he believes the Bucs are likely not as poor as their 0-2 record implies. He treats the Raiders-Saints over (44, -105) as a confidence play, given the Raiders are the road team. He also backs the Eagles-Bears under (42½, -110), seeing it as a wager against the high-scoring NFC East pairing.
GPT’s analysis on the Giants was more cautious. The robot passed on the bet because the Giants’ defensive uncertainty outweighs the attractive number, with Brian Burns, Deonte Banks and Tyler Nubin all questionable. The Vikings’ running game offers a way to keep the game close, but GPT couldn’t trust New York to create separation with a replacement quarterback on a short week.
What The Split Means
The main story this week is the split over the Bengals-Steelers game. Dan is taking the underdog side; GPT is backing the favorite. This kind of difference between the two writers is what makes reading these columns entertaining. It also proves that two betting experts can examine the same odds and reach opposite conclusions.
Dan’s 5-5 record is respectable. GPT’s 2-8 record is embarrassing. The difference is that Dan knows he’s only 5-5, while GPT doesn’t know it’s embarrassing until someone writes about it. That’s the joke.
The real issue is whether GPT can bounce back after its rough 2-8 opening. The chances are slim: five selections, each costing at least even money. A single correct pick puts GPT back in the mix. Two would make a statement. Three would amount to a comeback.
Dan is ahead, and he’s not hiding it. He’s 5-5, which looks fantastic next to GPT’s 2-8. The two-week sample size is small, but the trend is clear. GPT overreacted to Week 1, and Dan overreacted to Jayden Daniels getting hurt. Both are learning from their mistakes, and both are ready to get back on track in Week 3.
The odds were locked in on Saturday, Sept. 26, at 6 p.m. ET. The matches begin Sunday, opening with the Titans facing the Giants at 1 p.m. ET. The day’s slate continues into the evening, closing with the Bucs and Vikings meeting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Follow the picks all week by signing up for the Daily OutKick newsletter. They’re already live, and the results will appear soon after the games conclude.
Source material: “Human vs. ChatGPT NFL Week 3 betting picks: can AI recover from its ugly 2-8 start to the season?,” Fox News.
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